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Sunday, October 14, 2012

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Approaching 175 Per Month

Last year, the number of wells coming off the confidential each month seemed to be about 145. For the past few months, the number of wells coming off the confidential list is now approaching 175 per month.

In November, 2012, we will see a record of 181 wells coming off the confidential list (the previous record was 166, September, 2012). 

On September 20, 2012, there were 1,872 wells on the confidential list.
Less than a month later, October 11, 2012: there are 2,049 wells on the confidential list.

Confidential Wells By Company, Selected

OXY USA has 34 wells on the confidential list.
Newfield has 39 wells on the confidential list.
CLR has 253 wells on the confidential list. 
Whiting has 65 wells on the confidential list.
KOG has 94 wells on the confidential list. 
Oasis has only 38 wells on the confidential list.
Petro-Hunt, LLC, has 142 wells on the confidential list. 


Early this summer, Newfield was fairly active at the NDIC hearing dockets, but OXY USA has had almost no activity even at the hearings in the past few montsh.

4 comments:

  1. What is your take on Newfield and OXY not permitting anymore? Seems strange, I don't know what to make of OXY. Thanks for all you do.

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    1. Both OXY USA and Newfield have made negative comments regarding the Bakken during the past year (I'm thinking of the earnings conference calls).

      Newfield sold some of their Bakken assets to CLR and other(s) after being one of the first to complain about high costs of the Bakken. OXY USA was one of the first to say that they would cut back on drilling in North Dakota (they said they would increase activity in California).

      Then, someone wrote me pointing out that the number of rigs some companies currently have far outstrips the inventory of permitted sites to be drilled. That little note got me to thinking: if accurate, we need to see a significant number of new permits. That is starting to happen, but notably two names are not appearing (maybe others, but I can't keep up with everything -- but these are big companies and they are notably missing). [Meanwhile, Petro-Hunt is just the opposite; a lot of new permits.]

      This is all very preliminary; it could change tomorrow, but right now, OXY USA and Newfield have been noticeably absent on the daily activity reports for new permitting. Again, this may just be a short-term anomaly and it could literally change overnight. So, we'll see. That's the background.

      With regard to your question, I have no idea what their plans might be, but I would assume this would be picked up by analysts during the 3Q12 conference call which should be in November if there is a notable decrease in number of new permits.

      I suppose three possibilities: a) they start permitting again; b) they start laying down more rigs and wait things out for awhile, holding their leases by production; c) they sell their assets in the Bakken.

      And, again, I could be way off; we may seen a slew of permits this week. But even six permits on a single pad only ties up one rig.

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  2. Bruce, why do you think KOG has so many and OAS has only 38? OAS drilled more last quarter (in the first 2 months anyway, don't have data for third) than they ever have. Are they not requesting confidential status?

    Thanks

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    1. That surprised me, also. It certainly suggests that there may be a lot of wells that are not on the confidential list. All I can do for now is track this for awhile. I haven't tracked this very often in the past. But it was very surprising to me.

      They do have about 16 wells on "DRL" status -- that means they have come off the "confidential" list, but have not yet reported an IP.

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