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Thursday, October 11, 2012

So, It's a Poor Economy? Compared to What?

I suppose if one only watches the housing market and the banks on Wall Street, things look bad, but the Bakken hasn't been doing too badly the past two years.
And now this! How many noticed this? From Yahoo!Finance In-Play:
Cargill Q1 earnings rise 313% to $975 mln, revs fall 2.3% : Cargill reported $975 mln in earnings in Q1 FY13, a 313% increase from $236 mln in the prior year. Consolidated revenues in fiscal 2012 were $33.8 bln, down 2.3% from $34.6 bln in the prior year. 
"During the past two years, Cargill has invested $8.1 billion to better serve our customers all around the world," said Greg Page, Cargill chairman and chief executive officer. 
"By investing steadily, we've been able to significantly boost the breadth and depth of the products and services we offer our customers. And that has strengthened the balance, diversification and resilience we strive for in our business." 
Three additional factors contributed to Cargill's performance. Results were balanced, with improved earnings across all five business segments. There were no significant losses in any one business unit, the latter a factor that affected the year-ago period.
The company benefited from the considerable time and energy invested during the past 12 months to lower costs, simplify and streamline processes, and ensure capital expenditures were being directed to where they mattered most to customers.
To repeat: Cargill 1Q12 earnings rose over 300%!

How? No significant losses in any one business unit; benefited from considerable time and energy invested during the past 12 months to lower costs, simplify and streamline processes, and ensure capital expenditures were being directed to where they mattered most.

Sounds a lot like the Bakken, doesn't it? Companies are talking about cutting costs and ensuring that capital expenditures are being directed to where they matter most. In addition, the laying down of infrastructure will make a huge difference going forward. Whatever the margins are today, I can only imagine margins in the Bakken widening going forward: a) the price of oil will trend upward; and, b) the costs of production will go down in the Bakken.

The price of oil will trend upward because: a) there is simply no better alternative when it comes to bang for the buck; b) China and India like automobiles as much as Americans; c) inflation; and, d) like real estate, "they"aren't making any more oil. 

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