Weekly Jobless Claims -- The Story Has Not Changed For Almost Two Years

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

Last week: 382,000 (up)

Moving average: 377,750 (up)

Updates

September 20, 2012: There's always some spin: "... but most states showed lower rates than a year ago ..."

Unemployment rates in August rose in 26 states from July, but most states showed lower rates than a year ago, the federal government reported Friday.

But rates rose in a majority of states (no spin, just a data point, for what it's worth), unless there are 57 states as the president claims.

I can't make this stuff up.

Original Post

Key words/phrases in the article to be linked:

• more Americans filed
• concern the labor market is slackening
• more claims than expected (not good)
• last week's numbers revised upward (not good)
• four-week moving average increased (not good)

I do believe we have seen those phrases in 90% of the weekly jobs reports since I started following this metric on/about January 21, 2011. I will let readers do the statistical study.

My favorite line that never fails to be posted: "the increase in new claims adds to concern that the labor market is slackening." These articles never say who is concerned: based on policy decisions of this administration .... permitorium in the Gulf; fiscal cliff; Damocles sword; permitorium off-shore Alaska; killing Keystone XL; EPA killing the coal industry;

But I digress.

Some observations, from the linked article:

• no unusual state data
• Chicago's teachers' strike had no effect (they were out of work for a week; probably paid union benefits; why would they claim jobless benefits? oh, that's right -- it's Chicago)
• no tropical storm to blame 
• the "four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures" continues to edge toward the magic number
• analysts suggest that hiring is the problem; if we start to see layoffs --> recession
• analysts suggest hiring will pick up to help with year-end holiday sales (okay)

Link to the Bloomberg article here.