Link here.
Elsewhere (not at the link) there has been quite a bit of chatter regarding the decreasing rig count in North Dakota. There are several data points at the link that directly impact drilling rigs and the Bakken.
One data point regarding rig count in North Dakota was not noted in the link above: that an unspecified number of Bakken rigs have moved across the state line from North Dakota to Montana.
I'll leave it up to the readers to determine if current change in rig count in North Dakota from 218 (record) to about 199 (recent tally) is significant.
Morning Bruce,
ReplyDeleteQuestion what do they mean Allow Max. Production?
I hope you Know Thanks Again Great Job!
Pat.
http://www.milliondollarwayblog.com/2012/08/maximum-production-question-from-reader.html
DeleteNo data to back this up, just my opinion. If you look at the efficiencies that have been gained since the beginning of this boom one can see that a larger number of rigs is not necessary. Currently a well can be drilled to completion in an average of 20 days. As the number of leases that require a well drilled to hold them has fallen this summer rig numbers have stabilized. They can now move one rig onto a spacing unit and drill 6-8 wells from one or two pads and do the work of several rigs being constantly moved over long distances.
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely correct.
DeleteAll things being equal, my hunch is that 175 rigs in North Dakota is (are?) more than adequate to keep this blog busy.
Do you think that the rig count is down because so many are putting multiple wells on the same sites using one rig to drill multiple wells? I believe in the Hamlet-Salo site 10 or 12 wells were drilled with 2 rigs. I believe more wells are being drilled with fewer rigs. I do not know how the NDIC counts wells being drilled compared to the number of rigs involved. Alway enjoy your blog.
ReplyDeleteDennis
That is just one of the reasons. Carpe Diem listed several reasons. I may expand on that later. There's at least one additional data point regarding the number of rigs in North Dakota, cost, days to total depth, number of frack stages, etc., that has not been mentioned.
DeleteI can't frame it as a poll, but maybe a question for readers to see if anyone can guess. My hunch is that Teegue has not even thought of this one.
Bruce, The linked article reports there are 35,000 wells to be drilled" How is that number determined?
ReplyDeleteOne would have to ask the individual/agency who provided that number. A lot of detail is required, particularly if they are considering only the Bakken formation or if they are including other Williston Basin formations?
DeleteThere are two ways at arriving at these figures: a) count the number of likely drilling locations (tedious); b) estimated ultimate recovery (EURs); original oil in place (OOIP); percent recovery.
Anywhere, without knowing what the individual/agency based that on, here are some of the data points that need to be considered:
1. I assume Mr Helms was referring only to the Bakken/Three Forks Pool.
2. I do not know if he was referring to the number of drilling locations that the operators have already identified, or if he is including potentially new locations in areas that have not been de-risked.
3. I do not know if he is basing that number simply on current technology or future techology.
I assume he is basing it on the number of wells the operators have suggested they will be putting in each spacing unit (see hearing dockets), which varies across the Williston Basin. Some better sections will have eight wells drilled; some poorer sections will have one well, maybe two wells max. Harold Hamm, I believe, has said it will require 44,000 or 48,000 wells (I forget which; I think it was 48,000). I did back-of-the-envelope calculations several months ago based on available data and and I came up with almost exactly 48,000 wells.
I used EURs, OOIP, percent recovery. My hunch is that Harold Hamm used this method also.
This is just a quick response. I know I'm missing a lot, but that's a start.
In what the define as the "Bakken Formation" there are over 7,000 1,280 acre spacing units (2 square miles), using the 7,000 spacing units the speaker, whether its Lynn Helms, Harold Hamm or the representives of the Bakken Mutual Fund out of Minot indicate the number of potential wells to be drilled in each unit. 4 wells per unit and the estimate is 28,000 wells. Some presenters indicate 8 wells per unit, thus the potential for 56,000 wells in the Bakken. Now if the the producers go back to shorter laterals and spacing units are 640 acres, then the number of potential wells can double. Over the past 3 years the number of potential wells to drill has gone up because they are finding they can drill closer together and not effect other wells drills. Also, the number of potential wells to drill in ND has gone up because I have seen presenters group the potential of Three Forks in with the Bakken wells. Kent
ReplyDeleteKent: you win the door prize! I am absolutely impressed. The data point I was looking for was the recent comment you sent me that there is talk of well design going back to favoring short laterals.
ReplyDeleteIf "we" go back to "short laterals," the current estimates of wells needed to drill out the Bakken go out the proverbial window.
Wow, you win the door prize: a life-time free subscription to the blog. Smile.
Seriously, I am impressed. Thank you very much, though it pains me to post this, because I wanted to have the bragging rights to this. Though technically, even on that point, you earned them: you were the one who first passed me comment about short laterals. Best comment of the day. So far.
I owe you a steak dinner, at one of the new motels/hotels in Minot.