A reader noticed this, looking at one of my favorite fields, the Brooklyn field:
Over the last 90 days about half of the wells have had a significant reduction in days of production.The reader wonders whether it has to do with pricing of WTI.
Helena production days: 22/10/16/24 (May/April/March/February)
Topeka production days: 19 (May)
Bismark production days: 19/26/21 (May/April/March)
Mildred production days: 24/7/16 (May/April/March)
Rolf production days: 25/22/14 (May/April/March)
Gjorven production days: 15 (May)
Rennerfelt production days: 9 (May)
Hartford production days: 30/11 (May/April)
Barney production days: 26/4/19 (May/April/March)
Charleston production days: 13/25/29 (May/April/March)
Boise's production days: 1/15/11/27 (May/April/March/February)
Readers are welcome to comment.
I'm wondering the same thing. I have an interest in an excellent Brigham well in Painted Woods. Even though the well has been on-line the normal number of days for each month, the April production dropped by more than half, and the May production was an unbelievable 10 and runs were 0.
ReplyDeleteThe folks over at the Bakken Shale Discussion Group might have some insight; they are all mineral owners. But, whatever you do, don't mention this blog.
DeleteAs the Bakken matures, we will see it run like a manufacturing plant, tailoring production to demand (as represented by price).
What is their problem with this site anyway? I'm new to this stuff but it didn't take long to figure out their attitude about Million dOllar way!!!
DeleteWhy is that? Didn't take me long to see their are "issues" there are here!!!
DeleteIt's a long, long story. I think I posted the story some time ago. Bottom line: when I first posted sometime ago, my "anonymous" name had "investor" in it. They thought I was pumping Bakken stock. Also, because I did not own any mineral rights, I was not part of the group.
DeleteMy biggest disappointment is that some folks over at the BSDG are not aware of my site; they ask questions over at the BSDG and may not get an answer for days.
In my sidebar at the right, near the top, I do bring over some interesting threads, under "Enquiring Minds Want To Know."
Anyway, I wouldn't get hung up on it. Enjoy both sites. Just don't mention this blog at their thread.
Normally I would attribute the lost days of production to equipment failure, usually the rod drawn pump. However, for this to happen to the entire field in one month seems more than very unusual.
ReplyDeleteIf you do shut a well in for part of the month you don't lose the oil, matter of fact, you would expect flush production when the well is re-started. We had a poor month but I expect the next month production to be better than usual.
I've noticed that too with the Brooklyn. Perhaps it is because they are surveying as there are 4 more permits today for the Brooklyn Field. The Addyson and Richmond are adding 2 more wells each. This small field is a good one for Continental.
ReplyDeleteYes, if I wasn't traveling, I would posted more data regarding the new Brooklyn permits but that will have to wait a few more days.
DeleteAs noted some time ago, I think CLR is generating a lot of data from this small field. There is just too much activity to otherwise explain it.
I think I'm caught up for the moment: I count about 36 locations/wells for this small field right now.
DeleteI have been hearing that production is currently out stripping the ability to take the oil to market. This is especially true with smaller producers who did not invest in railroad facilities or have a small pipeline allotment. That is why frac crews are sitting in the yard and old wells are shut in to handle new well production.
ReplyDeleteI can believe that. It will be interesting to see if overall production in North Dakota sets another record with next reporting data or if oil will be held back due to a) shipping issues; b) decline in price?
DeleteThank you for taking time to comment.
Just prepared a spreadsheet of every Brooklyn well from IP through latest figures. Until earlier this year, there was never an annomally of this size or across this number of wells in terms of reduced production days. These numbers speak to throttled production, but not causation which is hypothesized about quite well by the readers above. Depending upon causation, the restart to full monthly production will be diffferent. If it is takeaway capacity, that does not get fixed overnight and any version of Keystone is still far away. If it is futures contracts, then production will be reactive with the price of oil. On the former, EPPINGs giant Colt terminal has recently come online and it is within 7 miles of Brooklyn. Thus, suspect that CLR's futures contracts are fully fulfilled and the current spread with WTI encourages them to keep it in the ground. My folks raised cattle, and when it was time for them to go to market - you had to take what the market gave you. Oil in place does appear to be different. It would be interesting to hear if there is evidence of similar throttling in CLR's other Baaken footprint. Great site Bruce - keep up the good work. Best, CW2 Boise
ReplyDeleteAnd you know, two more CLR-Brooklyn permits this past week.
DeleteI can't comment at all what is driving the decreased production in Brooklyn field (and I assume elsewhere. That would be a great research project for an MBA student for some class; not worthy of a PhD thesis, but a short paper.
This is what I find interesting: assume there were no reasons for throttling back (no problems with takewaway; no price differentials; no road restrictions; no manpower issues; etc) -- ND continues to set new monthly records for production -- can one imagine what those monthly numbers would be without throttling back. I'm an eternal optimist, and when I see Divide County besting Bowman County after all these years, and then ND setting a new production record in May despite throttling back; and we aren't even close to max number of wells per spacing unit, the potential seems to me -- most eternal optimist -- that under optimum circumstances, the oil potential of North Dakota is quite remarkable.
Wow, if I had the time I would look at another field and see if production days were similarly cut.