Oh, No! Unemployment -- First Time Claims -- Rise Again -- Previous Week's Numbers Revised Upward -- Foreclosures Up First Time in 27 Months -- Private Sector Is Doing Just Fine

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

First time claims benefits rise to 386,000.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly unemployment benefit applications rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, an increase from an upwardly revised 380,000 the previous week. 

The refrain -- actually two refrains repeat:

• first time claims rise
• previous week's numbers revised upward

QE3?

This is interesting. A while back ago I got the "magic number" wrong and was taken to task for that -- a well deserved thrashing. At that time, the number was "400,000."

Now, without question, the magic number has been changed:

Weekly applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. When they drop below 375,000, it typically suggests hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate. 

I will stick with 400,000 --  it's easier to remember and gives a bit better cushion going forward.

The magic number for new hires: 200,000

And there's more:

... hiring has slowed, raising concerns about the pace of the recovery. Employers added an average of only 96,000 jobs per month in the past three months. That's down from an average of 252,000 in the previous three months.

At fair and balanced C-Span:


The private sector is doing just fine, President Obama, June 8, 2012 

Lest we forget

Near the end of the article:

The United States has regained less than 3.8 million, or 43 percent, of the 8.8 million jobs lost during and immediately after the recession. 

Graphically.

Meanwhile, DrudgeReport links to this story, and it's not even a headline story any more: foreclosures rise for first time in 27 months.

By moving houses out of the so-called "shadow inventory" and onto the market, the increase in foreclosures could be a drag on the fragile U.S. housing recovery.

The private sector is doing just fine.

Coulda. Woulda. Shoulda.