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Monday, June 18, 2012

Global Growth Now Expected to Rise to 4.1% From 4.0%; Yes, No Typos

I don't know why this popped up in my e-mail today; the article was previously published and dated May 21, 2012.

I don't know about you, but it seems I can find almost any prediction regarding future demand for oil. It seems I've read that predictions were for increased demand, then predictions that demand would fall, and now we are back to predictions that demand for oil will increase.

A lot of interesting data in this article for what it's worth:
After posting near-zero annual growth in the fourth quarter of 2011, global oil demand growth will gradually accelerate throughout 2012, culminating in an increase of 1.2 million b/d by this year's final quarter, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report.
Data points:
  • 2012 trend: global oil consumption to rise by 800,000 bopd to 90 million bopd by year's end
  • 2013: growth projections have been increased for year-end 2013; forecast growth to 3.5%, revised upward form 3.3% a few months ago, and up 4.1% next year, up from prior forecast of 4%
  • Yes, you read that correctly. It's a headline story: forecast that global growth will increase to 4.1% from an earlier forecast of 4%.
Two comments/questions:
Is an increase to 4.1% from 4.0% reproducible and/or statistically significant?
Okay, just one comment/question, but it feels like two.

The best thing about this article: we have a 3-second soundbite for global oil consumption -- 90 million bopd.

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