Rasmussen Poll --

Updates

May 12, 2012: Euro officials begin to weigh Greek exit from common currency.  It may or may not stop there, but it won't end the euro's problems.

May 10, 2012: in the original post I note that it is likely that the "haves-have-nots" gap will widen over time. Today this story: nearly half of all Americans are not saving for retirement. And those that are saving are probably not able to save enough. 

Later, 9:00 p.m.: Wow, now even the very respectable Financial Times is talking about Greece leaving the EU. 

Later, 2:00 p.m.: Wow, talking heads getting more and more vocal about the end of the Euro; from early this morning with little mention to now, several hours later, CNBC is talking about the end of the Euro as we know it.  They're only talking aboug Greece, and maybe, Spain, but I wonder if behind closed doors folks are also talking about France joining that group that will break away before it's all over.

Later, 11:40 a.m.: Less than 30 minutes after I posted the note below, perhaps the most knowledgeable CNBC talking head on the Greek issue says that it has become more likely that a) Greece will leave the EU; and, b) Greece leaving the EU won't be catastrophic.  

Original Post

Link here. 

Looking ahead five years, just 44% of Americans believe the nation’s economy will be stronger than it is today.  That’s the lowest level of long-term optimism ever measured. 

Ever measured.

I don't know whether the US economy will be stronger or weaker, but I will suggest two points:

a) the US economy will be the second strongest in the world, right behind China's. Europe will be in huge trouble. The US will be energy independent for all intents and purposes. We may be importing oil but overall our energy ledger will be in the green.

b) the gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" will widen; though the expansion of the safety nets (health care, social security) will provide a sense of comfort. Remember, this is only five years out.

I wouldn't be surprised if the EU implodes; "they" say it can't happen, but it would not be a surprise. That doesn't mean it would not be a shock. It would be a shock. Just not a surprise. 

Oh, one last thought: the best thing about the French election: we will get another data point to see whether krugmanian economics makes sense. Or whether it will be a kruggerand economy.