Updates
Later, 3:30 p.m.: See first comment: a reader suggests that the Bakken is (again?) being hyped. I replied, asking for "specifics."
One of the reasons I started this blog was because other sites were suggesting that the Bakken was being hyped. I agreed from the beginning that the Bakken would not solve the world's energy challenges, but it would prove to be quite a boon to local residents. Wow, was that an understatement.
These are facts:
- from almost out of nowhere, North Dakota moved from 7th in the nation to 2nd in the nation in oil production due to the Bakken (technology and reserves)
- North Dakota moved to 2nd in oil production, passing Alaska (now 3rd) almost a year earlier than originally expected
- conservative UND analysis suggests that drilling the Bakken will continue through 2030, and that the Bakken will continue to produce through 2100; that is an old report based on old estimates and does not include formations outside the Bakken Pool
- "everyone" agrees that at least 5,000 more housing units are needed right now in Williston, despite all the building that has gone on for the past two years; [for purposes of this post ignore the following: some say 7,000 more unis are needed right now; and others suggest 24,000 new units will be needed over the next two years -- proposed by developers putting private money at risk; not public officials)
- a publicly traded company, not any state official, is estimating that the Bakken Pool has original oil in place that greatly exceeds earlier estimates; their new estimates are staggering; comparable to Saudi Arabia
- Bakken light, sweet oil is the best oil in the world: light and sweet
It is understandable why the USGS is not going to re-accomplish a new study any time soon.
And, of course, a state official at the conference recognized that about the only thing that will stop the energy juggernaut (a term used by the API to describe North Dakota) is a permitorium by the EPA. That concern is also not being "hyped."
Original Post
Thank you to a reader for alerting me to the story.
Have to hedge my comments because I am not directly involved with the oil/gas industry, but my first impressions of the 2012 conference in Bismarck, are that it has been over-hyped, kind of like the recent FACEBOOK IPO.
ReplyDeletePerhaps it as been due to the reporting I have read in the Bismarck Tribune, which has devoted many more inches of space to all the government officials, and much less so to the actual industry CEO's or experts. But at least, Stehpanie Gaswirth of the US Geological Survey was refreshingly frank in explaining the delay of another 18 months before the US Geological Survey would come up with new estimates of recoverable oil in the Bakken. She said the oil companies FIRST have to tell us (USGS) what the oil companies are finding - - we (USGS) don't drill.
And all the government officials don't drill either, yet it seems they have been hogging the center stage - or perhaps it is just the way that the Bismarck Tribune is reporting on the conf (after all it is the paper that decides whose picture and how big it is printed).
I am interested in hearing other's take on this conf. and the related reporting.
What specifically about the Bakken is being hyped?
DeleteI respectfully submit that you misinterpreted my original post. To make it more clear, I was criticizing the reporting of the conf by the Tribunes, which in my opinion was focusing more on the bureaucrats and/or politicians, than on the oil industry representatives.
DeleteFor example, the conference list of presenters contains roughly 24 oil industry reps, of which 12 spoke on Wednesday. But in the Tribunes reporting in its next edition of Thursday AM, it only featured reporting on 2 oil industry reps that had spoken on Wednesday. It gave more coverage to the bureaucrats. That includes the pictures as appeared in the print edition. I submit that you don't get the same feel for the pictures by looking only at the web edition. The size and number of pictures clearly over emphasized the bureaucrats.
But who has been the primary driving force behind the development of the Bakken? The oil industry or the bureaucrats/politicians?? As I stated in my original post, at least the speaker from the USGS was honest about that fact by stating that "We don't drill". Seems to me that the reporting by the Tribune should also pay more attention to that fact, when it decides what to report.
Again I am interested in hearing other's take on the conf. and the related reporting (emphasis on the reporting). And like I said in my original post, I am not directly involved with the oil/gas industry. But I am sympathetic with it, and this post is just my opinion.
You are correct; I apologize. I missed it.
DeleteNow I understand. Your first comment was that you felt the conference was over-hyped, not the Bakken.
"But my first impressions of the 2012 conference in Bismarck, are that it has been over-hyped, kind of like the recent FACEBOOK IPO.