In other words US expectations this week are set up to be met or beaten. Such an occurrence could allow oil to rally. On top of the above the overall market in general and oil specifically are near over sold levels. They are set up to rally if given half a chance.Big Bakken producer Continental Resources stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if such a rally does occur.Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold CLR.
Back-of-envelope calculations (numbers rounded); personal use only; absolutely not recommended to be used by anyone else, but as noted in my "Welcome" and "Disclaimer": I use this site for personal notes to try to keep track of things; again this is not to be used by others in making investment decisions; there are way too many fallacies in the numbers. See first comment below to see the first major mistake I made when doing this (even more reason not to pay attention to these numbers (smile):
CLR's market cap: $14 billion
CLR's Bakken acreage: slightly < 1,000,000 acres
Per Acreage/evaluation: $15,000/acre (CLR has significant interests outside the Bakken)
WLL's market cap: $5 billion
WLL's Bakken acreage: 700,000 acres
Per acreage/evaluation: $7000/acre (Whiting has significant interests outside the Bakken)
OAS' market cap: $2.6 billion
OAS' Bakken acreage: 300,000 acres
Per acreage/evaluation: $8,700/acre
KOG's market cap: $2.3 billion
KOG's Bakken acreage: 155,000 acres
Per acreage/evaluation: $15,000/acre
BEXP at time of sale
110 million shares @$36.50/share (?) --> $4 billion (?) -- I don't remember specifics
375,000 Bakken acres
Per acreage/evaluation: $11,000/acre
Bruce, you should really use Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt) to value companies. Companies with more debt will appear to a lower value per acre. A company's acquisition value is always its equity plus debt.
ReplyDeleteThank you. This is exactly why I should not do "back-of-the-envelope" calculations. But at least if I do them publicly, I might learn something. If I get a chance I will re-do the above. For now, I will point out this comment in the post above. Thank you.
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