For newbies: the number of active rigs is only one data point reflecting activity in the Bakken.
If the number of active rigs increases, it speaks volumes about activity in the Bakken. All things being equal, we should start seeing a decrease in the number of rigs in the Williston Basin:
- more operators are going to multiple well pads, decreasing the need for rigs
- when this all started, it was not unusual for an operator to take 45 days to reach total depth; now, if it takes longer than 25 days, there's a problem (this is for a Bakken horizontal well; non-Bakken vertical wells will reach total depth in a matter of a few days)
- when this all started, operators were predominantly drilling short laterals, thus two wells for every two sections; now routinely, they are drilling long laterals (one well for every two sections)
- several major operators have announced they will reduce the number of rigs in the Bakken
- some operators are moving their rigs across the state line to Montana (not counted in my total)
- some operators have to get their rigs to other plays, such as the Eagle Ford in Texas, to save their leases; most (?) of the leases in North Dakota are now held by production and drilling in some areas would not be needed to hold leases
However, each rig is said to represent about $10 million in drilling and completing, much of which goes toward personnel costs, and much of which stays within the state.