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Friday, April 27, 2012

Follow-Up: Only One Number I Was Interested In This Week

Updates

April 28, 2012: I posted the original post Friday evening. It was a bit more interesting than I realized as noted by Bloomberg:
Oil rose to the highest level in more than three weeks in New York as the biggest gain in U.S. consumer spending in more than a year and better-than-projected earnings overshadowed lower-than-forecast economic growth.

Futures climbed 0.4 percent after the Commerce Department said household purchases increased 2.9 percent, exceeding the most optimistic projection by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate, missing the 2.5 percent projection.
Oil rose to the highest level in more than three weeks. It rose to the highest level and a talking head on CNBC earlier in the week predicted that oil was likely to go below $100 by the end of the week.

Who are these clowns? Whoever they are, they weren't invited back on CNBC at the end of the week -- if they were, we weren't told.

Original Post

Earlier this week, Tuesday, I had a post with the subject: "The Only Number I'm Interested In This Week."

On Tuesday, all day long, on CNBC, the talking heads kept talking about some analyst who said oil would be under $100 by the end of the week. He offered no supporting data to bolster his argument, simply "it is what it will be."

I don't forecast oil prices any more; it's a fool's game. But oil below $100 this week did not fit my world view; I truly doubted we would see oil below $100 at the end of the week. So, where did oil finish, COB today? A tad above $104. Oil even gained about 25 cents today.

There was no mention on CNBC today the comments by Tuesday's prognosticator.

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