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Sunday, February 19, 2012

Well, Well, Well, Isn't This Interesting? Saudi Cuts Output Even As Prince Assures Us Saudi Won't Let Oil Go Over $100; Iran Cuts Exports To Europe; Germany Ready to Cut Ties With Greece

Oil Up Over $105 On News That Saudi Cut Production, Exports
Iran Cuts Exports to Britain, France
Meanwhile, Germany Ready to Cut Greece Loose?

Link to CNBC: Saudi cuts production.


Pretty impressive chart -- this is a dynamic link and I don't know how long the link will work.

And, the link regarding Iran cutting exports to Britain and France.

Very, very interesting; from the first link:
The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, appears to have cut both its oil production and export in December, according to the latest update by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), an official source of oil production, consumption and export data.

The OPEC heavyweight saw production decline by 237,000 barrels per day (bpd) from three-decade highs of 10.047 million bpd in November, the JODI data showed on Sunday.

The draw-down was sharper for the actual amount exported, declining by 440,000 bpd, or 5.6 percent, to come in at 7.364 million bpd, the data also showed. The level would still be similar to exports after a steep ramp-up last June.  
Three things jump out at me:
  • first, this occurred even as the prince said Saudi would not let the price of gas go over $100
  • second, unlike the usual announcements by Saudi when it decreases/increases production/exports, or when OPEC meets, this decrease seems to have been done quietly without telling "the world"
  • third, this occurred even when tensions were increasing again in the Mideast (Iran nuclear program; Syria's "Arab Spring")
Could  this be added to Hofmeister's perfect storm, an element he was not aware of when he spoke on CNBC this past week?

The story about Germany ready to cut Greece lose from the EU is not directly connected to the "oil" stories, but something tells me Europe is in "crisis" mode and such dots often eventually connect. The first dots to connect: if Greece is cut loose, and unable to pay its bills, something tells me the country will have trouble buying fuel oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, or natural gas.

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[I've been gone all weekend; this is the first time I've seen the news, or read any e-mail, so I haven't had chance to really sort this out. I don't know when this information was first posted -- it was news today or yesterday. Maybe for everyone it's old news and everyone has sorted it out, but it's news to me. Somehow, this seems to be a big story, but maybe I'm over-thinking it.]

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