The Leigh Price Paper
Part II
Part I
Part II
The original Leigh Price paper that "predicted" the Bakken boom is chock full of little nuggets.
I've read the paper once before -- maybe three years ago -- and have occasionally gone back and re-read parts of it. I am not a geologist and don't understand much of what was written. But, if read very slowly, literally line-by-line and stopping to think about what Price has just written, one can get a pretty good idea of what he is saying. Actually I'm impressed with how readable it is for a layperson considering the audience.
On page 19 of this 282-page paper, Price begins discussion of the "Fairway" and the heterogeneities of the Bakken as described in an earlier paper.
Local production heterogeneities (e.g., where two spatially-close wells produced vastly different amounts of oil) were assumed to be due to heterogeneities in reservoir geology between the two wells over short lateral distances. [Price's italics.]Price argues that no proof was offered to support that differences in neighboring wells was due to geology; in contrast, Price shows in this paper that the geology (under discussion) is constant over the entire area of discussion in the Williston Basin. [my bold]
What does that mean? Price agrees that there are "pronounced local and regional production heterogeneities" between Bakken wells "throughout the Bakken HC kitchen."
However, these production heterogeneities appear to be completely due to variable drilling, completion, stimulation, and maintenance procedures applied to different Bakken wells. Application of procedures appropriate to the unique characteristics of the Bakken Source System results in productive wells. Our studies suggest that very rarely does variatio in local geology have any measurable effect on the productivities of Bakken Source System wells.As a side note, I've read any number of references to the "Fairway" and I knew its general location, but it was rewarding to find a geologist's description of the Fairway and why it was so named.
Thats what I'm talkin bout. Whiting gettin it done vs Oxy still wondering if they turning the drill bit in the right direction.
ReplyDeleteIts a sweet play once you figure it out and an embarrassment if you cant.
when the landman come knocking and I sign my lease, I pray it wont get traded to some wannabe like some unfortunate folks. Send me a jannikowski and put it through the uprights.
Fascinating!! Sounds to me like well location (sweet spots) is not as important as I had thought, and that the right production methods applied anywhere within the North Dakota Bakken should level the playing field.
ReplyDeleteThanks so much!
This paper was written before the boom and I'm sure a lot of operators will argue the point, but it certainly seems accurate in the sense that some operators seem to be uniformly better at IPs and cumulative production than others.
DeleteThe Bakken does thin out at the edges, so there are still places where more wells may be drilled than other places. I can imagine ten wells/spacing unit in the heart of the Bakken and only two or four wells/spacing unit at the edges.
My hunch is that operators will argue about some of what Leigh Price has written but he provides a nice starting point. A new book on the Bakken/Three Forks, c. 2011, may shed more light on what other geologists have to say about this.