CNBC Talking Head: Iranian Embargo Does Not Go Into Effect for a Couple of Months

Operation Incredibly Loud and Extremely Close

Updates

May 3, 2012: so where do "we"stand with regard to India and Iran? India says it will cut  back on Iranian oil imports by 15% this financial year. Whoop-de-do. Iran is now exporting at the lowest level since 1990, following the Iran-Iraq war, down 150,000 bbls (in two months) to 3.2 million bbls/day. (At same link.) Is it just me, or does 150,000 bopd out of 3.3 million not seem like such a big deal with Brent oil priced where it is?

May 3, 2012: So much for global sanctions on Iran. India continues to flip-flop. First said it would ignore sanctions; then said it would abide by them; now insuring the Iranian tankers when others won't.

The Indian government has offered to insure as much as $50 million for any "Indian flag carriers" traveling to Iran. This amount falls well short of the actual liability incurred by oil tankers on any given trip, but it comes to more than six times as much as the Japanese government has offered its companies, illustrating India's interest in continuing the flow of Iranian oil.

April 17, 2012: does anyone really think Iran is selling less oil? At PennEnergy:

In the wake of the recent failed missile test in North Korea, cracks are also forming in U.S. and European efforts to contain access to nuclear technology on the other side of the continent.

Reuters reports that Iranian oil tankers have been circumventing sanctions against the country by operating without the normal electronic tracking and identification equipment, allowing them to transport oil to clients secretly.

Of the 39 oil ships that make up Iran's tanker fleet, only nine are currently operating with their black boxes active, allowing the AIS Live tracking system to monitor them.

One hour later after original post: a reader (Don) wrote to tell me that the embargo goes into effect July 1, 2012. I responded:

Three confounding factors July 1:

1) it's always possible, compromises will be worked out that will allow Iran to sell its oil on the open market

2) buyers will have found alternate sources and will have adapted to 3.5 million bbl/day shortfall

3) peak driving season, making it difficult to adapt to the 3.5 million bbl deficit

Oh, yes, one other factor:

4) Operation Incredibly Loud and Extremely Close --- this would be the Israeli attack on Iran. 

Original Post

I missed it, but I think he said the Iranian oil embargo will go into effect in June, 2012.