This article has a different slant regarding natural gas than I recently blogged about -- be that as it may.
I think folks who have an emotional attachment to the Bakken like I do will enjoy the linked article.
Here are two paragraphs from that article:
The "bear" case for natural gas prices in 2012 is based on the belief that the liquids-rich wells currently being drilled will produce substantially more associated natural gas than assumed, and in some cases more than typical dry gas wells. The proponents of this view point to an estimate from the EIA that in the North Dakota Bakken oil shale basin due to a lack of pipeline capacity to take away the associated gas production, as much as 30% of it is being flared. It is clear that there is a substantial amount of associated natural gas being produced as demonstrated by the chart in Exhibit 13. Unfortunately, the chart, prepared by the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, ends in early 2010. The chart, however, shows the dramatic growth in the state's natural gas production since the Bakken formation oil shale play commenced in 2006 and that production continues to grow. For the last 12 months, the state's natural gas production has grown by 50%.North Dakota's natural gas production amounts to less than 1 percent of that produced by the US Lower 48. And every day, more and more is being captured and processed.
If we examine the latest monthly gas production data published on the state's web site, in October there was 15.73 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas produced, but only 9.67 Bcf sold. That represents a spread of 40%. If we assume that all this difference was flared, then producers burned 6.06 Bcf of gas in the month. Those figures are for October, a 30-day month, which suggests that the volume of natural gas burned was about 200 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). To put that volume into perspective, North Dakota's total daily production was about 525 MMcf/d. Total U.S. Lower 48 States gas production in September was 66.23 Bcf/d, as reported on Form 914. Since North Dakota gas production amounts to just less than 1% of this total, even if 40% of it is being flared, we doubt that this volume of potential future supply is putting significant downward pressure on the gas market and gas prices.
I've always maintained that the flaring issue was a red herring. Now we have some numbers.
ND has a lot of gas.
ReplyDeleteBut, for perspective, IIRC:
1. a 400 MMCF pipeline opened in the NE PA Marcellus, and filled immediately. IIRC, Cabot filled their share in one day (it took hours to adjust the chokes).
2. CHK operates wells that produce 6 BCF per day. (Much for third parties.)
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I was looking at this tonight. All is interesting. (You may have mentioned it.) See the propane map on page 12. WB area has lots of propane heat.
http://www.gasfrac.com/presentations/GASFRACInvestorPresentationJune2011.pdf
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Marcellus gas chart. Just one midstream company. See page 7 from 12/29 presentation. http://www.chesapeakemidstream.com/Investors/Pages/Presentations.aspx
anon 1
You have an astounding memory; I have great difficulty managing the "units" for natural gas (BCF, for example).
ReplyDeleteI have my arms around "bbls" and "bopd" but mcf and bcf and BTUs, I just can't fathom.
The link on gas fracking was interesting to look at. As this practice gets proved and accepted it will open up shale plays in areas that have very limited access to water like west Texas, Colorado, and Wyoming even southwestern North Dakota. It would eliminate well contamination by microbes associated with the use of water. May even be used in areas with ample water supplies taking off the table the complaint of inappropriate use of water.
ReplyDeleteThe phoney environmentalist would still object because their real agenda is to stop the use of hydrocarbons as much as possible. Besides hydrocarbon development is a economic success and their green alternatives are a subsidized failure making them envious and jealous. They could care less about jobs, the economic vitally and energy security of the country. They have a radical worldview and a agenda to push. It is all about do as we say and we will control everything.
You are correct.
ReplyDeleteWe are on the same page.