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Sunday, July 24, 2011

Wind Energy: The View Out Your Backdoor (Or Your Front Door) -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Updates

February 14, 2016: The Miami Herald is reporting --
A giant wind farm in California’s southern San Joaquin Valley is blowing gusts through a faraway federal court, with tens of millions of dollars potentially up in the air.
Some of the wind farm’s early investors want more than $200 million in additional subsidies that they say the federal government owes them. Obama administration officials, in turn, argue that the government paid $59 million too much.
This week, a judge sharpened the administration’s side of the sword, agreeing that the U.S. can try to retrieve some of the taxpayer dollars paid.
U.S. Court of Federal Claims Judge Thomas C. Wheeler said in a decision Monday that the Treasury Department could counter the claims from investors in the Alta Wind project, the largest wind farm in the United States.
The wind farm investors, Wheeler wrote, “have no guarantee of keeping the amounts that Treasury paid them.” He noted that “a refund always was a possibility given a proper understanding of the issues.” As a result, an upcoming trial will determine who owes money to whom.
Wheeler’s ruling seems an unexpected turn for the Alta Wind Facility, located in the Tehachapi Mountains of Kern County. When some of the Alta Wind investors first started suing in 2013 to get a bigger share of federal money, the possibility that they could be the ones owing $59 million did not appear to be on the table.
Now, unless lawyers settle beforehand, the escalating two-way dispute will be resolved in a trial that is slated to start May 9 and is expected to last three weeks. It will likely be scrutinized by the nation’s big renewable-energy investors, which have included the corporate likes of Google.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article59876436.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article59876436.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article59876436.html#storylink=c
Original Post
 
From the Los Angeles Times, this is the view out your back door (or out your front window) when wind energy comes to a neighborhood near you.
Donna and Bob Moran moved to the wind-whipped foothills here four years ago looking for solitude and serenity amid the pinyon pines and towering Joshua trees.

But lately their view of the valley is being marred by a growing swarm of whirring wind turbines — many taller than the Statue of Liberty — sweeping ever closer to their home.

"Once, you could see stars like you wouldn't believe," Donna Moran said. "Now, with the lights from the turbines, you can't even see the night sky."

Looking Out My Back Door, CCR


It's about to get worse.

Turbines are multiplying at blistering speeds as wind developers, drawn by the area's powerful gusts, attempt to meet an insatiable demand for clean energy.

Helo Energy plans to scatter 450-foot machines across hundreds of acres in nearby Sand Canyon. A few miles away, near the Old West Ranch enclave, Terra-Gen Power is building the nation's largest wind farm with hundreds of turbines, if not more. The project, Alta Wind Energy Center, is backed by hundreds of millions of dollars from  Google Inc. and Citibank.
Read the rest at the link above. 

In residential neighborhoods in Los Angeles suburbs, oil pumpers are hidden from view with high hedges and trees but there's no way one can high a wind turbine. I did not know about the light pollution.

And so it goes.

Mishap on Cyclone 18 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Cyclone 18

CYCLONE 18PRIDE ENERGY OK GENBEAVER CREEK STATE 1-36HSESW 36-143N-103WGV207635/12/2011Mckenzie 1-34H




See this post for more regarding the photograph.

About 30 miles northwest of Belfield, North Dakota.

6:10 p.m. Two folks have written to say there may have been a fire/mishap at above rig. No more details.

If this is not accurate, I apologize for any misinformation.

6:13 p.m.: I've been told that NBC news/Bismarck station: just reported a GAS pocket was hit by this rig and a ressulting fire started. Several workers taken to local hospital. No deaths have been reported. This was just on 2 minutes ago. (News not on the NBC/KFYR website at the moment.)

My 2 Cents Worth Regarding the Federal Default -- 6 Days and Counting -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

The following is all opinion. Phrases or statements sounding like fact are most likely opinion; if they sound factual, they need to be confirmed by official sources. 

Governments the size of the US government cannot "turn on a dime," so if plans are not in place for social security checks to go out on August 2nd (2011), by now, they probably won't go out.

But you know, the checks will go out. Everybody knows. That's how it goes.

***************
Theme song for White House aides:

Everybody Knows, Leonard Cohen

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes.

Everybody knows the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody knows this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died.
************

So, one of three things is going to happen/has happened:
1) A deal to raise the debt limit is not reached by the deadline (August 1, 2011, 23:59 hours), and the US officially defaults. But behind the scenes, the administration has already decided to invoke executive powers or14th amendment by executive order to pay all or "some" US bills. If "some" bills, the list has already been made, which will include social security checks. They are not in the "Al Gore lockbox" but social security funds will be treated as if they were. All of other bills will be paid with "IOU" warrants. The US, if it does not pay all bills, is technically in default, but social security and some other "critical" payments would be made.

2) A deal is reached to raise the debt limit at the very last minute (August 1, 2011, 23:59 hours), all bills will be paid. The deal may be "the" final deal in this go-around, or may be a short-term deal to allow more negotiations. Because "the list" has already been drawn up, and "everyone" knew that bills would be paid, payments will go out as scheduled.

3) A deal is not reached by the deadline, and US officially defaults. Unlike outcome #1 above, the list has been drawn up, but the president says "no." No bills are to be paid.
************

From what I can determine based on those three possible outcomes, the buck stops at the Oval Office. The president has to sign off on any deal.

************

The legacy of every president is phrased in about the same number of syllables as the president's full name:
  • George Washington: Father of our country
  • Abraham Lincoln: Freed the slaves; US Civil War president
  • FDR: WWII, Social Security
  • IKE: golf, post war-boom, Cold War
  • JFK: Assassinated, Bay of Pigs
  • LBJ: Vietnam war
  • Richard Nixon: resigns
  • 1st Bush: No new taxes, watch my lips
  • Clinton: impeachment
  • 2nd Bush: War on Terror, 9/11, Katrina
  • Obama: US defaults, first time, banana republic; ObamaCare debacle;
***************

In the short term, if the US defaults, the mainstream media will savage the GOP, and, in fact, the GOP may lose big in public opinion and in the next election.

In the long term, when the history books are written, the legacy will be as above. Does anyone remember the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader under George Washington, during the Civil War, during the Vietnam War, under President Clinton? The names Reid, McConnell, Pelosi, and Boehner will be long forgotten by the time this president's legacy is written. Even Joe Biden's name is likely to be forgotten (in fact, we haven't heard his name in several days now).

****************
So, the question is this: will President Obama accept this legacy, the first president to preside over a US default? That's a tough one.

****************
So, where has the far right wing GOP drawn their line?
  • Rise in debt ceiling must be offset by cuts in spending equal to the rise
  • No new taxes (includes no "smoke and mirrors," no new definitions, no code words)
****************
Switching gears: from the president's vantage point -- "Never let a serious crisis goes to waste."

****************
Where has the president drawn the line?
This is why the president continues to negotiate and won't accept certain congressional plans.

*****************
 Where has the far left drawn their line.
  • I don't think anyone outside the Reid-Pelosi circle knows.
Because of this, the President risks coming to a deal that his own party refuses to support. The president's ability to prevent a default could actually be scuttled by his own party, not the GOP. Of course, it will still be the GOP that gets savaged by the mainstream media because the GOP dragged its feet too long to allow the President time to arm twist his far left base.

*****************
Two more things:
  • Cuts in spending are in the out-years, after the present bunch of folks are out of office.
  • New taxes take effect immediately.
*****************
What is the far right GOP afraid of?
*****************
The odds of passing a comprehensive plan decrease each day. Some say as of Sunday, July 24, 2011, it was too late to pass a comprehensive deal. [Update: somehow the deal was done -- I forget how it ended, but I know the US did not default.]

*****************
January 15, 2012: this story ended up being a non-story. I don't recall how it ended, but I know the US did not default. It was all political theater.
July 25, 2011, 3:00 p.m.: Talking head on CNBC said that Bank of America says the real "drop dead" date is now August 10, 2011, and not August 2, 2011, as originally expected. The new date is due to higher tax receipts coming in than expected. I will stick with the "August 2" date to watch this non-event, political theater play out.

July 25, 2011, 7:00 p.m., Kudlow: President Obama agrees to no new taxes. Now, will the liberal base agree to this, or will the liberal base scuttle the plan? Right wing GOP still not happy because they haven't got the other half of the deal -- cut in spending. Boehner accused the president of moving the goal posts. The right wing GOP is starting to sound like it is moving the goal posts; they have not, but at some point compromise is required. The right wing wants to make major changes in entitlements but that's not gonna happen in a couple of days.


July 25, 2011, 9:00 p.m.: President's speech. Oh-oh. The first few minutes of the speech -- half of it related to tax increases -- on hedge funds, corporations with special exemptions (code word for "Big Oil"); and even mentioned "those earning less than $250,000 won't see any tax increase."  He is back to asking wealthy Americans to pay more taxes -- regardless of what side of the fence one is on, his speech was very clear -- he wants increased taxes. He is still sticking to the August 2, 2011, "drop dead date", even though Bank of America says the real "drop dead date" is August 10. The president also left open his option to veto any compromise bill if he doesn't like it.  It will be interesting to see the post-speech analysis. My analysis: he set the process back; closer to default; he wants increased taxes. Kudlow must be shocked.

July 25, 2011, 11:59 p.m.: Bloomberg -- Wells Fargo Bank says "drop dead date at least a month later than August 2, 2011."

July 26, 2011, 3:01 a.m: Read this story very closely, and then tell me that you don't think the GOP would push Obama to default. You start to get the feeling that some of those young representatives are "mad as hell, and aren't going to take it any more." These young representatives are the same age as Senator Obama when he voted against raising the debt ceiling during President Bush's administration. What goes around, comes around.

*****************
July 26, 2011, 8:30 a.m..: Talking heads on CNBC all agree August 2, 2011, was a contrived date; means nothing.

*****************
July 27, 2011, 3:00 p.m.: It looks more and more like option #1. No deal will be reached; behind the scenes, the Treasury has already prioritized "must-pay bills"; August 2nd will come and go with a speech by President Obama saying he has taken decisive action, directing the Treasury to pay US bills in full. Of course, there is enough cash to do that anyway, and the US still won't have to raise the debt ceiling until September 2, or later. Many will interpret the president to have taken decisive action, when in fact, it will be just one more speech. Meanwhile, the concerned citizenry fall into one of two groups: continued angst and/or debt ceiling fatigue.

July 27, 2011, 6:00 p.m.: The Treasury Department's credibility is at risk. Here is the CNBC lede:
The U.S. Treasury Department reiterated Wednesday that unless the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, the U.S. runs out of borrowing authority Aug. 2, and that higher tax receipts will not give it more time.
The headline: Treasury "Insists" August 2 Debt-Ceiling Deadline Is Real.

Two comments. First, the headline writer used the word "insists" to suggest that not all accept the Treasury Department's statement.

Second, the press, and folks in general, are getting better and better at parsing statements and scrutinizing anything the Federal government says. In this case, there is a different between "the US runs out of borrowing authority" and "the US won't be able to pay its bills after August 2."

Several sources have said there is more than enough cash on hand to carry the US government through August 10, probably through September 2, and possibly longer.

If the August 2nd date comes and goes without a bill to raise the debt authority, and the US does not default, the Treasury Department will be another casualty of this contrived, political debacle. Reminder: then-Senator Obama voted against raising the debt ceiling the one time he was offered the opportunity.

July 28, 2011: The House scheduled for tonight was "pulled" by Boehner when he did not have the necessary votes. Thus: another lost day. August 2: 5 days. Fortunately July has 31 days. If this were February, it would be "all over."

July 30, 2011: CNBC notes that the White House and SecTreasury are playing us for fools, hoping the market would crash, and legislators would rush to pass almost any bill that Obama ghost-wrote for Senator Reid. Maybe the market will crash, but so far it hasn't and if August 2nd comes and goes without a whimper, and no debt limit ceiling bill, the country will have called the White House bluff.

July 30, 2011: It should be concerning to Americans that while this political theater is being played out, the White House risks dropping the ball on a number of other issues. Today in the internet headlines, but not being reported in the mainstream media: 1) Egyptian Islamists rally in show of strength; 2) gunmen attack Egyptian pipeline carrying natural gas to Israel; and, 3) Turkish military chiefs (DOD, Army, Air Force, and Navy equivalent) resign en masse over arguments with the civilian government leadership.  The Mideast has been way too quiet too long; Hillary Clinton is on her world tour, away from Washington for a very long time. It is unsettling. It is even more unsettling to read that The New York Times refers to the Muslim Brotherhood as relatively moderate.

The Brits know, but I doubt many Americans know that violence has increased in Iraq over the past year due to resurgence of Shi-ite militias.  And our drawdown continues.

July 31, 2011: there is an increasing number of stories reporting that the president is losing his liberal base. I believe that is the #1 reason that the debt ceiling talks are so difficult (Boehner's relationship with the Tea Party members of his own party is a very, very close second). More and more it looks like Obama is caught between Iraq and a hard place. If Obama is unable to get a deal done (and remember, in America, the buck stops in the Oval office) he will be remembered as the first president to preside over a US government default, regardless of how bad that really is, or how short it really lasts. If he has to concede to the point that he completely and irrevocably loses his liberal base, he will go down the McGovern road -- losing every state in the union but Massachusetts. In this case, Obama might even lose Massachusetts in a general election.

August 1, 2011, 9:00 a.m.: if the deal is scuttled, the vote was "personal." I don't know if the far right in the House has/have enough votes to scuttle the deal, but they certainly will if the House democrats fail to support the deal that the President has endorsed. If the House democrats fail to support the deal, the deal is scuttled, and President Obama will go into August 2 without additional borrowing authority. Although most agree that is a contrived date, the fact that his own democrats are willing to scuttle the deal and let Obama go down in history as the first president to preside over a US default will mean just one thing: their votes were personal. They no longer like, want, or trust Obama to lead them in the next election. Peggy Noonan called it right: In America, no one likes a loser.

August 1, 2011, 12:15 p.m.: the market is telling us one of two things. The market either a) doesn't like the deal; or, b) doesn't think this particular deal will be passed by the House of Representatives. Even the Senate looks iffy. But right now I'm not sure Boehner (the House) has the votes.

August 2, 2011: well, the market told us it doesn't like the deal, but more important the market agrees with Cypress Semiconductor CEO, TJ Rodgers, who clearly stated the White House has mismanaged this economy similar to what we saw during the Carter administration. TJ Rodgers was interviewed on a business show at 3:15 p.m. CDT, this date, when he said that. The market sees a double dip recession. Oh, well. 

San Pedro Harbor Fish Market -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

This is a long post, so click on the music while reading about the San Pedro wholesale fish market.



Somewhere Over the Rainbow, Israel Kamakawiwo'ole


Speaking of southern California (see previous post), I have to admit there are some wonderful opportunities in the San Pedro area that even very few of the locals are aware of. I am specifically thinking of the wholesale fish market on the harbor, just down from Ports of Call. (This is not about the 2000-seat restaurant that goes by the same name in Ports of Call. This is about our visit to the wholesale fish market, seen in the picture on the second page of the attached document.)

The market is open only to restaurants and retail businesses during the week, but the market is open to everyone, including tourists like me, from 2:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. every Saturday morning. Yes, that's not a typo: opening just after midnight and closing at dawn.

We found out about the market for the first time this summer (and I've been visiting San Pedro since 1973) and it was only through a casual conversation. So, we went on our last Saturday in San Pedro.

The four of us planned to leave the house at 5:00 a.m. but the younger granddaughter would have nothing of it, so only our older granddaughter and I went, arriving at the market about 5:30.

It was the real deal.

The huge 1930s-looking pink warehouse was right on the harbor. A motley assortment of cars, vans, and semis were in the parking lot, along with a preacher (and no congregation except those walking by to the market) and a half dozen young women soliciting donations for goodwill of some sort.

There were six or so fish companies, each identical in outward appearance, each occupying one of the six two-car-garage-size units. Inside one could buy any kind of sea food one could imagine. There was lots of salmon, tuna, shark, adult octopus and baby octopus. It appeared that the largest catch was mackerel, and/or, squid. Boxes and boxes of both: mackerel and squid.

[Trivia from wikipedia: Pouches of mackerel have become a currency in United States federal prisons after cigarettes, the previous currency, were banned. Comment: I did not know that but will have to verify with a couple of federal prison officers I know. I had not heard this before.]

The prices were phenomenal, as one might expect. I was told that much of the better fish had been sold earlier in the morning, and I needed to be there earlier if I wanted a better selection. Except perhaps for yellowfin tuna, the selection seemed excellent even at 6:00 a.m.  As the 7:00 o'clock hour neared, prices started coming down, so that $1.49/lb squid could be had for $0.49/lb by 6:30. I assume by the time the doors were closing they would have given my granddaughter a bag of squid away for free.

And, yes, this fish market will now become a Saturday morning tradition from now on when visiting San Pedro.

I forgot to write down the names of the six or so fish companies, but I want to thank "Paula" at one of the companies, the young woman at the cash register, who arranged for my granddaughter and I to walk to the rear of the building, to walk outside, and view the harbor, and the seals, sea lions, pelicans, and seagulls waiting for scraps.

I believe my granddaughter was the only non-adult visiting the fish market this particular Saturday. She loved it; the sights, sounds, and smells, did not frighten her, but I'm not sure all children would enjoy the sights or the smells. The male workers (there were only a few women) looked right out of Hollywood casting: big, gruff, but, as usual, "melt" when they interact with a pleasant eight-year-old granddaughter out with her Papa. The mix of shoppers seemed to be 40% Asian, 40% Hispanic, and 20% Caucasian. I think we were the only tourists. The rest seemed serious about their fish selections. We bought salmon and sea bass.

By the way, the Los Angeles Port -- Long Beach Port of San Pedro Harbor handles slightly more than 50% of all port trade coming in / leaving the US. Together the ports are huge.

Carpe Diem: Job Growth in Texas vs California -- Chart of the Day -- And A Bit About Legoland, Disneyland

Carpe Diem's chart of the day: my home is San Antonio, but I spend a lot of time in my wife's family home in Los Angeles, specifically the San Pedro harbor area. My gut feeling is that the economy in California will get worse before it gets better, assuming that it gets better without significant policy changes.


The gap between the very rich / rich and the poor will get wider regardless of what happens. I honestly do not know how folks can afford the cost of living along the coastal communities in southern California. Groceries are generally 25 - 50 percent more in price than what I pay in San Antonio. California has both state income taxes and property taxes; Texas has no state income tax.

Legoland (near San Diego) always has a very small attendance compared to Disneyland; it's never crowded in Legoland. Having said that Legoland seemed quieter than usual this year (July, 2011). The Legoland water park was most crowded but still very, very small by comparison to anything at Disneyland. The walk-up price for a day at Legoland is $80 (all figures rounded) but just this past month Legoland/Burger King partnered on a promotion, letting one adult and one child in for the price of one adult. The cost averaged $40/visitor in our group of seven, a price we thought very, very reasonable for what we got. But $80/visitor would not have been worth it (and thus the promotion, I guess).

Disneyland, on the other hand, has no promotions (minor exceptions) and walk-up price for a day at Disneyland is now $100/visitor. One definitely gets his/her money's worth at Disneyland for that price, but with another $25/visitor on food and trinkets, the average family of four spends $600 just for a day at the park. One cannot see the entire park in two days, and if one really wants to enjoy Disneyland at a leisurely pace, one needs to get the three day pass. I see at the Disneyland website, Disney has dropped its $315 3-day hopper ticket to $300. Southern California residents can get a 3-day hopper for $140.

It goes without saying car expenses are significantly higher in southern California than in Texas.

For Investors Only: Michael Filloon's Speculative Plays in the Williston Basin Bakken and the Alberta Bakken

Link here.

Companies mentioned include: SSN, Lynden Energy, Primary Petroleum, American Eagle Energy,
Mountainview Energy, Lucas Energy, and Triangle Petroleum.

Lynden Energy: single lease, 103,400 net acres, Alberta Bakken

Primary Petroleum: 20,000 net WB Bakken acres; 290,000 south Alberta Bakken acres

American Eagle Energy: WB Bakken (MT and ND) and south Alberta Bakken

Mountainview Energy: 60,000 net acres in Alberta Bakken

Lucas Energy: small acreage, Texas mostly

State Republican Leader Bob Stenehjem, 59, Killed in Traffic Accident, Alaska

Link here (regional links break early).
Government agencies will lower their flags to half-staff Monday in honor of North Dakota Senate Republican majority leader Bob Stenehjem.


The Stenehjem, 59, was killed earlier this week in a traffic accident in Alaska.

First Oil Conference For Williston Set For This Autumn -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here (regional links break early).
The first conference in Williston aimed at bringing local oil and gas service companies together is set for this fall.

The inaugural Bakken Oil Product and Service Show will be held Oct. 13-14 at the Raymond Family Community Center.

Huge Story: Hampton Inn Across From Mercy Hospital -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here (regional links break early).
The Mercy Medical Center campus will soon be seeing new growth with the addition of a Hampton Inn and Suites.

Located at 1515 Gate Ave., the hotel will be part of a three-phase Dakota Crossing development.

Hampton Inn and Suites will contain 98 rooms, 30 of which are to be suites.
Simply huge. I thought the hotel would be on the other side of the bypass, but this puts the hotel right on the Mercy Medical Center campus, as the story says. Simply huge.

It's possible this will be only one of two major hotels in the Williston area that will have rooms for others than just contract oil personnel. 

Enbridge's Beaver Lodge Loop Project Remains On Track Despite Recent Flooding -- Will Add 145,000 BOPD To Pipeline -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here (regional links break early).
Planing (sic) for the company's Beaver Lodge Loop Project is well under way, but the actual labor portion had not hit full stride when the flooding set into the Minot region.

The Beaver Lodge Loop Project is designed to add up to 145,000 barrels per day into the company's North Dakota System Berthold station.

Enbridge spokeswoman Lorraine Grymala said Friday morning that since the nearest phase of the expansion involves adding 29 miles of 16-inch diameter pipeline in the Stanley-to-Berthold corridor, the project's building phase wasn't adversely affected by events in the Des Lacs or Souris river basins.
Enbridge's overview of the Beaver Lodge Loop Project

For newbies: the Beaver Lodge field is the oldest field in North Dakota. This is where oil was discovered in North Dakota, in 1951, the Clarence Iverson #1.

Archived: My Favorite Commentaries

2019
Before 2019

Bakken permits, 2017.

Not ready for prime time.

Some commentaries from other sites:
Some housekeeping; removing the clutter, but keeping the links.
SeekingAlpha