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Friday, May 6, 2011

Wow, wow, wow: Williston -- Population, 15,000 -- $1.35 Billion in Taxable Sales in 2010

Original Post

Link here. (Regional links break early and break often.)

Only Fargo had greater taxable sales than Williston in North Dakota.
  • Fargo: $2.2 billion
  • Williston: $1.35 billion
Unfortunately no other data was provided in this very short article.

$1.35 billion / 12,000 people --> $90,000/person in Williston. Okay.

For Fargo, $2.2 billion / 106,000 people --> $21,000/person in Fargo. Hmmm.

How Bad Is the Employment Picture? LA Times Provides a Bit of Perspective

I reported this earlier but was told that I was a) too negative; or, b) unrealistic about the jobs report today -- in which the US created ALMOST a quarter of a million "new" jobs, including about 50,000 McDonald's jobs (although that has since been disputed). So, forget what I said; look at what the LA Times says:
But an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate — to 9% last month from 8.8% in March — offered a harsh reminder of how deep the roots of America's jobs problem go and how great the challenges remain.

The country gained 244,000 net jobs last month but still needs about 7 million additional jobs just to return to pre-recession levels.
"Just to return to pre-recession levels." Let's see, 7 million/250,000 --> 28 months -- only two more years if we keep this pace.

[Update: after posting the above, I ran across this:
Although Friday's numbers certainly mark an improvement over previous reports, it will take another two and a half years before the economy reaches prerecession employment levels. How long after that it will need to add enough jobs to compensate for population growth will depend on how many people rejoin the labor force. Without question, it would be many more months. -- we must have used the same numbers!
[Update, May 8, 2011: and there's more:
  • At the current pace of job creation, the economy won't return to full employment until 2018.
  • Middle-income jobs are disappearing from the economy. The share of middle-income jobs in the United States has fallen from 52% in 1980 to 42% in 2010.
  • Middle-income jobs have been replaced by low-income jobs, which now make up 41% of total employment.
  • 17 million Americans with college degrees are doing jobs that require less than the skill levels associated with a bachelor's degree.
[Update, May 11, 2011: and more: simply put, politicians have it backwards. An increase in GDP is not going to bring back more jobs. Strategic thinking that promotes job growth will bring back more jobs.



This graph/link to Carpe Diem provides some insight into the tectonic shifts we are witnessing. This graph explains why 10% unemployment is the new norm. With this kind of productivity/worker, it hardly makes it necessary to increase hiring. I'm waiting for the day when one can punch in a McDonald's order on a SmartPhone or at the restaurant, and then run a credit card through a reader, and pick up one's order without giving the order or the money to a cashier.  Same concept as self-checkout at the grocery store.

Carpe Diem.com provides a silver lining to this cloudy report; and the comments add some perspective, something the mainstream media failed to report.

Meanwhile more than 80 percent of Americans feel the economy is in poor shape with unemployment the number one problem.

CORRECTION. Not a Record: Eight Wells on Two Pads -- But Very, Very Close Together

Update

May 18, 2017: production data for 20850 and 20851 have been updated; the other wells remain on  conf status.

June 17, 2011: "Anonymous" is correct and I was wrong: the eight wells are one two separate pads; the pads are close together, but they are, in fact, separate pads, at least based on the GIS server.  See comments below.

Original Post

This appears to be another record in the Bakken: eight wells will be placed on one pad. [See comments below: folks much smarter than I feel that these are simply two pads placed in adjoining quadrants, and don't constitute a single pad. I won't argue. But I'm waiting for the satellite photos. My gut feeling is the land "between" the two sets of wells will be tied up with oil activity.]
  • 20846, conf, Enerplus, Axe 148-94 11A-1H, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20847, conf, Enerplus, Poblano 148-94 02D-1H, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20848, conf, Enerplus, Vise 148-94 11A-2H TF, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20849, conf, Enerplus, Cayenne 148-94 02D-2H TF, NWNE 11-148-94W
  • 20850, 710, Enerplus, Jalapeno 148-94 02C-3H, NENW 11-148-94W, t1/12; cum 182K 11/17;
  • 20851, 782, Enerplus, Forge 148-94 11B-3H, NENW 11-148-94W, t1/12; cum 234K 11/17;
  • 20852, conf, Enerplus, Anvil 148-94 11B-4H TF, NENW 11-148-94W
  • 20853, conf, Enerplus, Habanero 148-94 02C-4H TF, NENW 11-148-94W
It looks like four will be middle Bakken (MB) and four will be Three Forks (TF).
The wells are being spud from east to west. Most likely two of the MB wells and two of the TF wells will run north, and two of each will run south.

Most likely the Axe-Vise-Forge-Anvil will run the same direction; the peppers will run the opposite direction. 

Zenergy already has a permit (confidential) in section 14, just south of section 11. Permit #18129.

Enerplus already has two wells on two separate pads (four all together) in an adjacent section, section 12-148-94. Enerplus also has two wells on one pad in section 13-148-94.

McGregory Buttes is in the southwest corner of the reservation, a very active and very productive area.

Thirteen (13) New Permits -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This is very, very exciting. I think we have had new permits touching double digits each day this week; that may be a record in North Dakota in recent history.

Drillers: Enerplus (8),  Slawson (2), North Plains (2), Hess.

Fields: McGregory Buttes, Van Hook, Truax, and Dollar Joe.

Eight of the Enerplus wells will be on one pad in McGregory Buttes oil field.

The two Slawson wells will be on one permit in Van Hook oil field.

Today's daily activity report also show a change of operator from Anschutz to OXY USA for about 85 wells, including some great wells, including the Stroh wells.

Also, two nice wells reported -- one for BEXP and one for Slawson, reported elsewhere.

Another "Oil for America" Well Comes Off Confidential List -- But No Data -- DRL Status

Again, we have another "Oil for America" well come off the confidential list, and no data.

Shedding Light on Recent Drop in Oil Prices

I think this video sheds a lot of light on the reason for the "crash" in oil prices yesterday.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000020494; same as the link in first line.

Update:

Without comment for now, I will post several links that will help explain the precipitous drop in oil prices at the end of the week of May 6, 2011, and where oil prices are headed:

The dollar escalated 2 percent: that caused the sell-off. Yup. 2 percent.

Goldman Sachs: oil prices will be back to new highs in 2012 due to supply issues. Remember, it was GS that predicted a pullback.


Trichet's interview from Finland (I don't know how long CNBC leaves these links up). My understanding is that Trichet's interview resulted in the strengthening of the dollar by 3 cents or so.

Commodity sell-off: CNBC interview with traders in the pit.  

Wind Projects in North Dakota -- Update


June 1, 2013: Wind farm costs in North Dakota

May 11, 2013: Government gives absolute immunity to slicing and dicing golden eagles and whooping cranes.

May 5, 2013: North Dakota energy update, for archival purposes. 

May 5, 2013: Wyoming wind energy pulls in a paltry $1 million

May 6, 2011: Border Winds Project, 150 MW, Sequoia Energy, Winnipeg, Manitoba
State regulators on Thursday approved a site plan for a proposed 150-megawatt wind energy development near the Canadian border in north-central North Dakota.

The Border Winds project is being developed by Sequoia Energy U.S. Inc., a unit of Sequoia Energy, which is based in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The company first announced the project three years ago.

Reminder: BEXP To Add One Rig/Month Starting This Month --> 12 Rigs -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

BEXP will start adding one rig/month starting this month until it reaches 12 rigs in the Bakken.

BEXP will take delivery of its 8th rig this month, and then increase to its steady state of 12 rigs.

Folks have been predicting 200 active rigs in the Bakken, and this will take us from about 180 now to 192. Add in CHK and a few others, and 200 should not be out of the question.