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Monday, December 12, 2011

Big Bakken Piece in the Wall Street Journal Today -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

WSJ link here. These links are tricky; it may or may not be there, and/or you may been a subscription. Carpe Diem alerted me to the link.

The article is another great article, but nothing that regular readers of this blog don't already know. But there are other reasons to read it.

The Bakken is mentioned in the article as just one example of tight oil, but remember three things: a) as far as I'm concerned, the Bakken is where "this" (tight oil boom) started, and it was in the Elm Coulee, Montana; and then to Parshall, North Dakota, 2000 and 2004 (or was it 2007?), respectively; b) everything the rest of the world accomplishes in tight oil was worked out in the laboratories of the Bakken; and, c) the Bakken still has the highest TOC of them all (it's the best source rock in the world).

Some data points from the WSJ article today:
  • U.S. petroleum imports, on a net basis, reached their peak—60%—of domestic consumption in 2005. Since then, they have been going in the other direction. They are now down to 46%. [And I think none of the US imports come from the Mideast; if so, negligible amount.]
  • U.S. oil consumption reached what might be called "peak demand" in 2005 and has since declined. [But Asian demand has not peaked.]
  • U.S. crude oil output has risen by 18% since 2008. Some of that has come from an increase in deep-water output, although after last year's Deepwater Horizon oil spill the pace of future growth is more uncertain. The big surprise is onshore, where the United States is experiencing an oil boom.
  • Thanks to tight oil, North Dakota is now America's fourth largest oil-producing state after Texas, Alaska and California. It may well move up to third or even second place.
  • North Dakota also has the lowest unemployment rate in the nation at 3.5%. The shale oil boom generates jobs in the oil fields, but it also has a long supply chain, fostering manufacturing jobs in states like Ohio and information technology jobs in California.
Those jobs in other states created by the Bakken cannot be underestimated. I would assume the railroad tanker manufacturers and truck manufacturers are staying open because of the Bakken. 

Yergin says the US is down to importing 46% of its oil. Based on this article, what I know about tight oil in the US, the Keystone debacle, the Gulf permitorium, off-shore drilling bans, etc., the US could either be self-sufficient, or require only imports from Canada in the future.

What a great country.

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