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Sunday, October 30, 2011

Sanish Field Oil Production Decline -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Elsewhere (all Teegue links are broken; couldn't take the heat) they're talking about the decline in production rate in Whiting's huge field, the Sanish.

My hunch is that down the road, these wells will be re-fracked.

But for the moment, the writer may be on to something. Some of the most prolific fields have been in Mountrail County. Here are the production totals by month for Mountrail County for selected months:
  • August, 2008: 1,586,456
  • August, 2009: 2,934,463
  • August, 2010: 4,194, 633
  • August, 2011: 4,495,934
  • August, 2012: 6,043,517
  • August, 2013: 6,837,328
  • August, 2014: 7,831,948
 [Update: December 1, 2014 -- another example, I guess, for some of the crazy analyses over at that discussion board.]

A couple of things: the "business of the business" is more important than the business activity itself. In this case, the monthly production is simply one data point. Other data points that would be helpful would be the current takeaway capacity across the Bakken (probably not a factor, in this case, but we don't know), and the producers' ability to adjust production based on price of oil. The price of oil dropped this past summer. [See date of original post.]

Here are the NDIC figures for the past year or so for the Sanish-Bakken (pay attention to the second column [total monthly production] and the fifth column [number of producing wells]:

Date BBLS Oil BBLS Water MCF Gas Wells Producing BBLS Injected MCF Injected Wells Injecting
10-201417063588277511728699506000
9-201417331007527361765720511000
8-201417246067557451731005507000
7-201417419987696341669691498000
6-201416737546801331641004489000
5-201417910797347151644255490000
4-201417600756525061414323487000
3-201418230466745281529935480000
2-201417074376294551444966472000
1-201418750266384901522418469000
12-201319076516306811479598466000
11-201319531406710151480479470000
10-201319322517064701499104464000
9-201318201676270841428481449000
8-201319022476527971397520444000
7-201318920356710451451987440000
6-201317828436444731413498422000
5-201318826706337931461066414000
4-201318733726040291438935412000
3-201319538566385551475639403000
2-201317743056045761333304397000
1-201318410496147471368544384000

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