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Thursday, September 15, 2011

So, Which County Is Averaging Better IPs? McKenzie County or Mountrail County? -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I will leave this up for just a few days and then remove it. It is simply raw data, very unscientific, but "anonymous" suggested that in the past few months, McKenzie County was reporting better IPs than Mountrail County.

So, let's see. 

In 2010, McKenzie County was granted 330 permits, compared to 426 permits for Mountrail County.
Of the wells that have reported IPs, the data is as follows. McKenzie is  the left hand column; Mountrail is the right column.

The average IP in McKenzie County (left hand column) is 1,274 bbls.
The average IP in Mountrail County (right hand column) is 1,141 bbls.

The IPs are generally taken from the official NDIC daily activity reports, but on many occasions I used data from corporate presentations. I was not always careful about bopd vs boepd, so the entire exercise is suspect. However, the law of large numbers would suggest that I made as many errors in each column (on a percentage basis) and thus the analysis is probably not too far off.

So, there you have it: a fairly meaningless exercise, but someone asked the question, and this is the data I have (as imprecise as it might be). 

McKenzie County                            Mountrail County

3
76 29
105 30
125 42
183 84
225 100
240 110
240 117
271 120
275 124
294 138
302 139
342 140
372 154
380 154
399 166
402 170
406 176
407 182
408 195
417 196
428 200
441 207
443 213
447 220
462 225
462 235
480 236
494 250
496 252
497 262
517 263
522 269
526 285
527 287
530 321
535 342
539 345
540 345
558 358
578 366
594 368
618 372
636 373
644 376
646 378
649 379
657 405
658 415
674 417
680 423
688 424
706 432
710 433
722 433
749 437
792 439
793 442
801 446
811 463
817 470
836 474
849 486
853 489
863 511
866 519
900 521
904 526
922 527
937 532
949 541
952 543
977 547
980 554
1,001 560
1,004 562
1,006 572
1,008 581
1,046 588
1,060 600
1,060 602
1,067 605
1,069 608
1,074 613
1,099 616
1,162 621
1,203 625
1,207 627
1,212 629
1,215 637
1,219 648
1,234 665
1,249 667
1,274 668
1,300 684
1,311 689
1,342 697
1,355 697
1,358 698
1,392 701
1,415 717
1,470 718
1,471 723
1,476 732
1,490 755
1,500 762
1,507 785
1,524 788
1,559 795
1,565 800
1,639 807
1,659 811
1,678 812
1,680 820
1,680 839
1,689 847
1,692 853
1,719 853
1,754 861
1,804 874
1,833 880
1,882 889
1,883 894
1,885 895
1,912 912
1,919 921
1,968 927
1,976 962
2,006 983
2,029 990
2,112 1,007
2,145 1,026
2,300 1,034
2,338 1,039
2,413 1,041
2,450 1,048
2,461 1,055
2,497 1,057
2,519 1,063
2,521 1,066
2,526 1,073
2,573 1,080
2,579 1,088
2,606 1,100
2,640 1,106
2,674 1,126
2,789 1,131
2,803 1,146
2,805 1,158
2,816 1,163
2,844 1,169
2,849 1,184
2,862 1,200
2,955 1,236
3,000 1,276
3,206 1,289
3,240 1,291
3,311 1,306
4,169 1,308
1,327
1,330
1,338
1,345
1,361
1,371
1,388
1,389
1,394
1,407
1,412
1,427
1,447
1,458
1,466
1,517
1,521
1,561
1,587
1,611
1,667
1,669
1,685
1,693
1,694
1,695
1,770
1,805
1,820
1,851
1,870
1,936
1,959
2,023
2,043
2,086
2,090
2,104
2,110
2,137
2,166
2,241
2,294
2,322
2,347
2,411
2,440
2,551
2,686
2,693
2,720
2,731
2,746
2,788
2,789
2,834
2,835
2,944
2,973
2,984
3,070
3,159
3,293
3,445
3,479
3,660
4,106
4,335
4,357
4,431
4,661
5,061

9 comments:

  1. Averages for you (and counts) of your data:

    McKenzie County Mountrail County

    Count 159 Count 230
    Average 1273.716981 Average 1146.03913

    ReplyDelete
  2. I also looked at 2011 permits. It is amazing. Only a handful of permits granted in 2011 have IPs reported. I think less than 10 total. Okay, two hands full.

    By now, September, 2011, all the wells that were spudded in the first quarter of 2011, should have reported out by now. That demonstrates how far behind they are in the fracking queue.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ND MRP clearly shows Mountrail out producing on oil with less wells?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Rory/Bruce - obviously the counts are higher in Mountrail as this includes Parshall/Sanish which has had the early thrust and attention of drilling. Time vs results.
    But this hits directly to my point. As time goes forward, McKenzie and other counties will have more wells drilled and they will catch up in the data area.
    Some Counties may measure up and some may not but it just seems to me (with nothing to back it up) that McKenzie looks very promising at this stage. I was just making an observation and as Bruce would say "I have no dog in this".
    I think it is telling that McKenzie IP's (preliminarily or possibly) even equal Mountrails.
    As I said earlier, time will tell with the Cumulative bbls.
    And Bruce, thanks for all of your hard work. Your blog is the the Bakken go to site. Nothing compares. The amount of information available is incredible.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I concur, go to site indeed. Thanks, Bruce.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Again, thank you for our kind remarks.

    Again, this list is way less than perfect, but it was "fun." The biggest thing I noticed: I couldn't do a 2011 list because so far there have been so few wells with permits issued in 2011 that reported IPs. All the wells spudded between January and first half of March, 2011, should have reported out by now, and very, very few have due to fracking backlog.

    By the way, again, a lot of folks talk about the ESER.org map; the UND-EERC map/site is better.

    ReplyDelete
  7. While geographic comparisons of IPs and production are interesting, I'm finding the "horizon" most thrilling.
    A couple of weeks ago, I tracked historic IPs for an oil field. (1981-2011) The take away was a very nice curve showing improved performance over time, regardless of which company was doing the drilling. I'm crediting improving technology and a better understanding of the geology.
    With an eye on improved extraction methods, one might wonder how small today's IPs will be when compared with wells yet to be drilled.

    ReplyDelete
  8. You are so very correct, and thank you for taking time to comment.

    I think you (and I) have stumbled onto something that should be obvious that results will be better with time (for any number of reasons including experience, technology, proppant mix).

    I think what is most surprising is how fast this is occurring. I think a lot of folks forget that the North Dakota Bakken was not entered until 2007, and IPs for wells with permits granted in 2010 are all we are seeing recently.

    For me, the best example, has been MRO. An "expert" some months ago told me that MRO could never get an IP above 500, and generally was in the 300 - 400 range. Interestingly enough, MRO has had a string of great wells, all exceeing 1,000 bbls.

    But I really appreciate you confirming what I am seeing (or think to see).

    ReplyDelete

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