So, let's see.
In 2010, McKenzie County was granted 330 permits, compared to 426 permits for Mountrail County.
Of the wells that have reported IPs, the data is as follows. McKenzie is the left hand column; Mountrail is the right column.
The average IP in McKenzie County (left hand column) is 1,274 bbls.
The average IP in Mountrail County (right hand column) is 1,141 bbls.
The IPs are generally taken from the official NDIC daily activity reports, but on many occasions I used data from corporate presentations. I was not always careful about bopd vs boepd, so the entire exercise is suspect. However, the law of large numbers would suggest that I made as many errors in each column (on a percentage basis) and thus the analysis is probably not too far off.
So, there you have it: a fairly meaningless exercise, but someone asked the question, and this is the data I have (as imprecise as it might be).
McKenzie County Mountrail County
| 3 | |||
| 76 | 29 | ||
| 105 | 30 | ||
| 125 | 42 | ||
| 183 | 84 | ||
| 225 | 100 | ||
| 240 | 110 | ||
| 240 | 117 | ||
| 271 | 120 | ||
| 275 | 124 | ||
| 294 | 138 | ||
| 302 | 139 | ||
| 342 | 140 | ||
| 372 | 154 | ||
| 380 | 154 | ||
| 399 | 166 | ||
| 402 | 170 | ||
| 406 | 176 | ||
| 407 | 182 | ||
| 408 | 195 | ||
| 417 | 196 | ||
| 428 | 200 | ||
| 441 | 207 | ||
| 443 | 213 | ||
| 447 | 220 | ||
| 462 | 225 | ||
| 462 | 235 | ||
| 480 | 236 | ||
| 494 | 250 | ||
| 496 | 252 | ||
| 497 | 262 | ||
| 517 | 263 | ||
| 522 | 269 | ||
| 526 | 285 | ||
| 527 | 287 | ||
| 530 | 321 | ||
| 535 | 342 | ||
| 539 | 345 | ||
| 540 | 345 | ||
| 558 | 358 | ||
| 578 | 366 | ||
| 594 | 368 | ||
| 618 | 372 | ||
| 636 | 373 | ||
| 644 | 376 | ||
| 646 | 378 | ||
| 649 | 379 | ||
| 657 | 405 | ||
| 658 | 415 | ||
| 674 | 417 | ||
| 680 | 423 | ||
| 688 | 424 | ||
| 706 | 432 | ||
| 710 | 433 | ||
| 722 | 433 | ||
| 749 | 437 | ||
| 792 | 439 | ||
| 793 | 442 | ||
| 801 | 446 | ||
| 811 | 463 | ||
| 817 | 470 | ||
| 836 | 474 | ||
| 849 | 486 | ||
| 853 | 489 | ||
| 863 | 511 | ||
| 866 | 519 | ||
| 900 | 521 | ||
| 904 | 526 | ||
| 922 | 527 | ||
| 937 | 532 | ||
| 949 | 541 | ||
| 952 | 543 | ||
| 977 | 547 | ||
| 980 | 554 | ||
| 1,001 | 560 | ||
| 1,004 | 562 | ||
| 1,006 | 572 | ||
| 1,008 | 581 | ||
| 1,046 | 588 | ||
| 1,060 | 600 | ||
| 1,060 | 602 | ||
| 1,067 | 605 | ||
| 1,069 | 608 | ||
| 1,074 | 613 | ||
| 1,099 | 616 | ||
| 1,162 | 621 | ||
| 1,203 | 625 | ||
| 1,207 | 627 | ||
| 1,212 | 629 | ||
| 1,215 | 637 | ||
| 1,219 | 648 | ||
| 1,234 | 665 | ||
| 1,249 | 667 | ||
| 1,274 | 668 | ||
| 1,300 | 684 | ||
| 1,311 | 689 | ||
| 1,342 | 697 | ||
| 1,355 | 697 | ||
| 1,358 | 698 | ||
| 1,392 | 701 | ||
| 1,415 | 717 | ||
| 1,470 | 718 | ||
| 1,471 | 723 | ||
| 1,476 | 732 | ||
| 1,490 | 755 | ||
| 1,500 | 762 | ||
| 1,507 | 785 | ||
| 1,524 | 788 | ||
| 1,559 | 795 | ||
| 1,565 | 800 | ||
| 1,639 | 807 | ||
| 1,659 | 811 | ||
| 1,678 | 812 | ||
| 1,680 | 820 | ||
| 1,680 | 839 | ||
| 1,689 | 847 | ||
| 1,692 | 853 | ||
| 1,719 | 853 | ||
| 1,754 | 861 | ||
| 1,804 | 874 | ||
| 1,833 | 880 | ||
| 1,882 | 889 | ||
| 1,883 | 894 | ||
| 1,885 | 895 | ||
| 1,912 | 912 | ||
| 1,919 | 921 | ||
| 1,968 | 927 | ||
| 1,976 | 962 | ||
| 2,006 | 983 | ||
| 2,029 | 990 | ||
| 2,112 | 1,007 | ||
| 2,145 | 1,026 | ||
| 2,300 | 1,034 | ||
| 2,338 | 1,039 | ||
| 2,413 | 1,041 | ||
| 2,450 | 1,048 | ||
| 2,461 | 1,055 | ||
| 2,497 | 1,057 | ||
| 2,519 | 1,063 | ||
| 2,521 | 1,066 | ||
| 2,526 | 1,073 | ||
| 2,573 | 1,080 | ||
| 2,579 | 1,088 | ||
| 2,606 | 1,100 | ||
| 2,640 | 1,106 | ||
| 2,674 | 1,126 | ||
| 2,789 | 1,131 | ||
| 2,803 | 1,146 | ||
| 2,805 | 1,158 | ||
| 2,816 | 1,163 | ||
| 2,844 | 1,169 | ||
| 2,849 | 1,184 | ||
| 2,862 | 1,200 | ||
| 2,955 | 1,236 | ||
| 3,000 | 1,276 | ||
| 3,206 | 1,289 | ||
| 3,240 | 1,291 | ||
| 3,311 | 1,306 | ||
| 4,169 | 1,308 | ||
| 1,327 | |||
| 1,330 | |||
| 1,338 | |||
| 1,345 | |||
| 1,361 | |||
| 1,371 | |||
| 1,388 | |||
| 1,389 | |||
| 1,394 | |||
| 1,407 | |||
| 1,412 | |||
| 1,427 | |||
| 1,447 | |||
| 1,458 | |||
| 1,466 | |||
| 1,517 | |||
| 1,521 | |||
| 1,561 | |||
| 1,587 | |||
| 1,611 | |||
| 1,667 | |||
| 1,669 | |||
| 1,685 | |||
| 1,693 | |||
| 1,694 | |||
| 1,695 | |||
| 1,770 | |||
| 1,805 | |||
| 1,820 | |||
| 1,851 | |||
| 1,870 | |||
| 1,936 | |||
| 1,959 | |||
| 2,023 | |||
| 2,043 | |||
| 2,086 | |||
| 2,090 | |||
| 2,104 | |||
| 2,110 | |||
| 2,137 | |||
| 2,166 | |||
| 2,241 | |||
| 2,294 | |||
| 2,322 | |||
| 2,347 | |||
| 2,411 | |||
| 2,440 | |||
| 2,551 | |||
| 2,686 | |||
| 2,693 | |||
| 2,720 | |||
| 2,731 | |||
| 2,746 | |||
| 2,788 | |||
| 2,789 | |||
| 2,834 | |||
| 2,835 2,944 2,973 2,984 3,070 3,159 3,293 3,445 3,479 3,660 4,106 4,335 4,357 4,431 4,661 5,061 | |||
Averages for you (and counts) of your data:
ReplyDeleteMcKenzie County Mountrail County
Count 159 Count 230
Average 1273.716981 Average 1146.03913
I also looked at 2011 permits. It is amazing. Only a handful of permits granted in 2011 have IPs reported. I think less than 10 total. Okay, two hands full.
ReplyDeleteBy now, September, 2011, all the wells that were spudded in the first quarter of 2011, should have reported out by now. That demonstrates how far behind they are in the fracking queue.
ND MRP clearly shows Mountrail out producing on oil with less wells?
ReplyDeletesorry I missed the IP part
ReplyDeleteRory/Bruce - obviously the counts are higher in Mountrail as this includes Parshall/Sanish which has had the early thrust and attention of drilling. Time vs results.
ReplyDeleteBut this hits directly to my point. As time goes forward, McKenzie and other counties will have more wells drilled and they will catch up in the data area.
Some Counties may measure up and some may not but it just seems to me (with nothing to back it up) that McKenzie looks very promising at this stage. I was just making an observation and as Bruce would say "I have no dog in this".
I think it is telling that McKenzie IP's (preliminarily or possibly) even equal Mountrails.
As I said earlier, time will tell with the Cumulative bbls.
And Bruce, thanks for all of your hard work. Your blog is the the Bakken go to site. Nothing compares. The amount of information available is incredible.
I concur, go to site indeed. Thanks, Bruce.
ReplyDeleteAgain, thank you for our kind remarks.
ReplyDeleteAgain, this list is way less than perfect, but it was "fun." The biggest thing I noticed: I couldn't do a 2011 list because so far there have been so few wells with permits issued in 2011 that reported IPs. All the wells spudded between January and first half of March, 2011, should have reported out by now, and very, very few have due to fracking backlog.
By the way, again, a lot of folks talk about the ESER.org map; the UND-EERC map/site is better.
While geographic comparisons of IPs and production are interesting, I'm finding the "horizon" most thrilling.
ReplyDeleteA couple of weeks ago, I tracked historic IPs for an oil field. (1981-2011) The take away was a very nice curve showing improved performance over time, regardless of which company was doing the drilling. I'm crediting improving technology and a better understanding of the geology.
With an eye on improved extraction methods, one might wonder how small today's IPs will be when compared with wells yet to be drilled.
You are so very correct, and thank you for taking time to comment.
ReplyDeleteI think you (and I) have stumbled onto something that should be obvious that results will be better with time (for any number of reasons including experience, technology, proppant mix).
I think what is most surprising is how fast this is occurring. I think a lot of folks forget that the North Dakota Bakken was not entered until 2007, and IPs for wells with permits granted in 2010 are all we are seeing recently.
For me, the best example, has been MRO. An "expert" some months ago told me that MRO could never get an IP above 500, and generally was in the 300 - 400 range. Interestingly enough, MRO has had a string of great wells, all exceeing 1,000 bbls.
But I really appreciate you confirming what I am seeing (or think to see).