Why The Bakken Is Different -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I forget which CEO said it during the 2Q11 earnings conference call, but you could hear the frustration in his voice, that analysts were misunderstanding the Bakken. It was not Harold Hamm. Actually, now I remember who he was, but I think I will avoid quoting him, afraid of misinterpreting what he said, or putting words in his mouth.

But the takeaway I took from this CEO is that Wall Street analysts are absolutely missing how huge the Bakken is.

He mentioned two things: a) these are monster wells; and, b) there are "no" DRY holes in the Bakken. I have said that many, many times, that the fact there are "no" DRY holes in the Bakken is a huge development.

He also did not mention that technology is improving exponentially, and the wells now being drilled are so much better than wells that were first drilled in this boom in Montana in 2000. Mostly it has to do with completions: in 2000, it was single stage fractures; in 2008 it was 12-stage fractures; now the standard is moving to 32-stage fracture completions. 

Last night, I looked at the well files of 55 consecutive permits isssued back in 1978 / 1979, or thereabouts.

The permit numbers were from #6665 to #6719, inclusive.

That's 55 consecutive permits.

Five of those permits were canceled, so money was spent on 50 of those permits.

Seventeen of those 50 wells drilled were DRY. 17/50 --> a third of all drilled wells in that series were DRY.

Of the 33 wells that did hit oil, most have since been abandoned. 

• 9 of those wells never reached 50,000 bbls.
• Another 5 did not reach 100,000 bbls.
• 9 wells reached 100,000 but did not reach 200,000.
• There was one great/memorable well: >1.4 million bbls.

So, maybe, of the 50 wells drilled for permits issued in that time period, maybe 19 were good wells; Only a handful were great wells. Now, in comparison:

• A Bakken well EUR is 603,000 bbls. That's an average.
• There are "no" DRY Bakken wells.
• There will be many phenomenal Bakken wells, well above the million-bbl mark.

Total cumulative production of these wells noted above (#6665 - #6719), in order of total production, not drilling order, or permit order, were:

• 4,000 bbls
• 7,000 bbls
• 29,000 bbls
• 29,000 bbls
• 29,000 bbls
• 29,000 bbls
• 32,000 bbls
• 35,000 bbls
• 48,000 bbls 
• 52,000 bbls
• 60,000 bbls
• 74,000 bbls
• 89,000 bbls 
• 93,000 bbls
• 107,000 bbls
• 108,000 bbls
• 110,000 bbls
• 116,000 bbls
• 117,000 bbls
• 120,000 bbls
• 143,000 bbls
• 145,000 bbls
• 182,000 bbls
• 213,000 bbls
• 232,000 bbls
• 280,000 bbls
• 326,000 bbls
• 384,000 bbls
• 375,000 bbls
• 500,000 bbls
• 1.4 million bbls