Trending: Top 10 List

Updates

October 31, 2020: not necessarily the top ten trending stories, but those that interest me now:

• who owns the Permian? The majors or the independents?
• COP -- there appears to be a huge shift in strategy
• what next in the Bakken? 
• monster wells in the Bakken
• the dashboards: Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian
• the Mideast: in deep doo-doo
• Apple
• Turkey -- separate from the Mideast
• like Fitzgerald said: "within and without"
• investing: the strange case for/of dividends
• cooking for one: heat is heat
• Alaska: killing the golden goose; we will know this week
• ILI surveillance

October 17, 2020:

1. Covid-19, second wave; vaccine? Hope springs eternal.
2. Presidential campaign coming to an end; Trump nominated third justice in his first term: Gorsuch; Kavanaugh; Amy Barrett;
3. Saudi Arabia (OPEC) in great financial difficulty; Brent oil stuck at $40/bbl
4. After hitting daily production lows earlier this summer, North Dakota's production for August, 2020, bounces back, but most see production declining again;
5. North Dakota, other midwestern/western states seen with surge in Covid cases;
6. Unemployment remains stubbornly high; stock market stuck in narrow trading range with huge volatility
7.

August 30, 2019

1. US-China "war" on tariffs: peaked in 2Q19; the war is winding down
2. US economy: a tale of two factions: "recession right around the corner" (anti-Trumpers) vs US ready to lap the rest of the world (Trumpers)
3. inverted bond yield; 30-year Treasuries paying less than 2%; Fed hesitant to cut rates due to so much positive economic data
4. US House -- Democrats haven't done a thing; US Senate quietly confirming judges
5. Impeachment: going nowhere but now back in the news with Congress visiting home districts during August recess; fired FBI director James Comey lied and leaked, just as Trump said he had
6. Oil glut -- Saudi Arabia remains in deep trouble; says Aramco IPO still going to happen but will open on Saudi stock market, maybe Japan; will shut NY, Hong Kong
7. North Dakota continues to set all-time crude oil production records; New Mexico (Permian) could leap-frog ahead of North Dakota for the #2 position
8. Dem front-runners: Biden, Bernie, and Pocahontas; Beto flamed out; from 24 on debate stage over two nights four months ago to ten Dems on debate stage on one night
9. RBG: some say two months
10. active rigs in the Bakken back up to recent high (around 64)

January 3, 2019

1. US stock market imploding; APPL in deep trouble -- warns on profits
2. US House -- Democrats back in control
3. Impeachment of Donald Trump all but assured
4. Oil glut -- Saudi Arabia in deep trouble
5. no one will host the Oscars
6. college football bowl games a bust
7. the Dems best bets for president, the three B's: Bernie, Biden, and Beto
8.
9.
10.

June 28, 2016

1. There are indications that Saudi Arabia has changed strategy; will focus on refining; will not increase production; will concentrate on Prince Salman's plan with greater emphasis on midstream, downstream; less emphasis on upstream
2. Completion of Panama Canal expansion could dramatically change energy picture
3. US ethane exports continue to surge, and still more to come
4. 1Q16 taxable sales and purchases for North Dakota have plummeted, but 50% higher than what they were 1Q10; North Dakota Bakken has clearly moved to "manufacturing" stage
5. North Dakota met flaring targets set for 2020 in April, 2016, data; four years early
6. DUCs, currently about 900, in North Dakota getting all the attention, but in addition, North Dakota reports 1,500 inactive wells; many producing wells not producing at full potential; production "can turn on a dime" -- production can turn a lot faster than some folks might think
7. Brexit: short term, a debacle for the equity and commodity markets, but looks like the markets will stabilize in a week or so; will take years to "unwind"
8. Fossil fuel's center of gravity has definitely shifted from Mideast and Russia to North America
9. Venezuela remains in the news; imploding
10. China, India, and Indonesia
11. Pad drilling; halo effect;
12. Active rigs may have bottomed out at 25; now back to 31

September 23, 2014

1. Oil glut worsening; price of WTI trending lower; testing the $90 floor; China storing oil off-shore in huge cargo tankers; US imports of Saudi oil dropping to record lows
2. Costs to complete a Bakken well increasing once again, due to skyrocketing costs of sand, ceramic
3. Upper Three Forks still being delineated; activity in the lower Three Forks has barely moved in the past year
4. Pad drilling in the Bakken highly disruptive
5. New flaring rules go into effect this autumn; could affect ND production; three consecutive months of 1 million + bopd out of North Dakota
6. More NGL processing plants going up in North Dakota
7. New completion techniques: slickwater + higher proppant volumes

August 15, 2013

1. Canadian oil production
2. Canadian oil reaching coasts despite demise of the Keystone XL; Canadian CBR
3. Strength in price of oil persists: still solidly above $105 -- global economy improving; signs of inflation; new turmoil in Egypt
4. Huge 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day IPs in the Bakken
5. CLR delineating the Upper Three Forks; some targeting of the LOWER Three Forks
6. New US Sec of Interior comments on North Dakota flaring 

June 22, 2013

1. EOG's new completion (fracking) strategy; lessons learned in the Eagle Ford
2. Increasing rancor among surface owners, mineral owners, farmers, ranchers, local and state politicians, oil and gas operators
3. Fed policy; China sluggishness affects price of oil
4. EPA losing interest in fracking as a concern
5. Pilot projects in the Bakken to test 24, as many as 48, wells in one spacing unit
6. Harold Hamm's divorce simmering
7. The Bakken's increasing impact on East Coast and West Coast import
8. The US central corridor: the US energy renaissance
9. Blending light domestic (Bakken, Eagle Ford) with heavy foreign oil for US refiners

May 26, 2013

1. EOG: huge earnings report for 1Q13; stock surges; 160-acre downspacing;  
2. EOG: some long laterals in the Parshall oil field model to 2-million-bbl EURs; better than Eagle Ford
3. EOG: 2nd bench of the Three Forks may be better than the middle Bakken in some areas
4. Stable price for oil, though surplus seems to be developing (WTI: $95, trending down)
5. Mideast: Egypt imploding; SyrIran threatens Israel; Israel strikes inside Syria
6. Increasing number of stories pro/con on the Keystone XL, suggesting decision is close [update: original list was May 7; on May 26, I updated the list, and it is clear that the decision on the Keystone won't be make until spring, 2014, at the earliest
7. Brent/WTI narrows; putting pressure on Bakken crude-by-rail, especially to East Coast
8. International: North Korea removes missiles from launch pad; less hysteria about euro imploding (yet to come); coal surging; no real follow-on to Kyoto Protocol, suggesting global warming movement dead for all practical purposes though ideologues (including the US president will continue to pursue) 

February 2, 2013

1. Surging stock market; rising price of oil (WTI: $98)
2. Mideast: Egypt imploding; SyrIran threatens Israel; Israel strikes inside Syria
3. State Dept states no decision on Keystone XL before end of June, 2013
4. Brent/WTI spread widens; Seaway expansion on hold; wont' be "fixed" until 4Q13
5. Otherwise, similar to January 18, 2013

January 18, 2013

1. Debt ceiling: careening from crisis to crisis. No, not Greece; the US
2. Pipelines will be the energy story of 2013
3. Multi-well pad starting to take off
4. 160-acre well density in the Bakken (incredible)
5. No movement on the Keystone XL; Hillary announces resignation; Kerry yet to be approved; sworn in; Heidi visits a HeadStart program; nothing on the Keystone XL [update: Nebraska governor approves new routing plan o/a January 22, 2013]
6. Natural gas in the Bakken becoming an ever bigger story
7. WTI/Brent spread narrowing for many reasons
8. Number of rigs in the Bakken trending higher; price of oil trending higher
9. US can't rule out chemical warfare in Syria
10. $625 million needed for Williston infrastructure over next six years due to surging population

December 10, 2012

1. ObamaCliff -- time is running out; status quo will be extended six months
2. Chinese accelerating purchase of American energy assets (Canada, US, particularly)
3. Bakken potential significantly greater than once thought (CLR's TF3; 1.5-million-bbl EURs; 1-trillion-bbl reservoir)
4. Price of oil trending lower: foreshadowing the Great Recession of 2013
5. Oil from the Bakken moving east-west-east; not north-south; Enbridge UP; ONEOKs BCOE pipeline nixed for lack of subscriber support
6. Mideast stalemate; use of chemical warfare discussed
7. Rail over pipeline (for now)
8. Political movement on Keystone XL eerily quiet despite election being over

October 22, 2012

1. Earnings season
2. Slawson targeting the Upper Bakken Shale -- Huge! Shale vs tight.
3. Mideast risk: Russia/Syria vs US/Turkey
3. The four benches in the Three Forks: altering the definition of the stratigraphic limits
5. Bakken oil selling at a premium to WTI due to rail
6. The boom continues: North Dakota sales tax collections increase 40% year-over-year 7. Greece crisis coming to a head -- and then the can kicked down the road (again)
8. Pace of permitting in the Bakken quickening
9. ONEOK's Bakken Crude Oil Express Pipeline (1,300 miles from the Bakken to Cushing); nail in coffin for Keystone XL [update: ONEOKs Bakken Crude Oil Express Pipeline DOA]

September 12, 2012:

1. Mideast heating up: Obama won't meet with Israeli PM; US ambassador to Libya killed; Egyptians storm evacuated US embassy;
2. Flexibility of rail cars now provides opportunity to bring diluent back to northern tier; remember, they are putting in a pipeline from Tioga area to take NGLs up to Canada
3. Minot, North Dakota: airport facility plans suggest more is going on in Minot than meets the eye
4. EOG -- only two relevant fields -- the Bakken and the Eagle Ford
5. Crude-by-rail
6. Work over rigs
7. Specialty rigs
8. Euro gets kicked down the road; QE3 anticipated
9. CVX hit's all-time high; XOM hits 52-week high
10. Economic boom in western North Dakota continues

August 18, 2012:

1. Bakken continues to set new production records
2. Operators decreasing rigs in the Bakken; to contain costs
3. Work over rigs
4. Energy focus moving to North America: Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian
5. Natural gas prices may have bottomed
6. Crude-by-rail out of the Bakken
7. Boom flattening out (I don't agree)
8. Euro gets kicked down the road
9. War drums in the Mideast; Muslim Brotherhood consolidates control over Egypt
10. Price of oil creeping back to $100; White House talks about releasing SPR after September

June 25, 2012:

1. Energy focus moving to North America
2. Dropping natural gas prices, global recession doom wind, solar
3. Natural gas liquids (NGLs), ethane story coming out of the Bakken
4. Mining the Bakken: 8+ wells/spacing unit in the better Bakken
5. Crude-by-rail
6. Formations other than the Bakken getting increased attention
7. Dickinson's attitude becoming more pro-growth
8. Keystone XL: does it even matter any more?
9. Serious, serious slowdown; Euro will not survive as it exists today
10. War drums in Mideast, but amazing how this can is kicked down the road

January 18, 2012:

1. US becomes energy leader, again: natural gas glut; net oil exporter. Energy focus moving to western hemisphere
2. Fracking: sand, EPA, mismatch in drilling/fracking
3. Arab Spring: to upset balance of power in the Mideast
4. Crude-by-rail
5. New formations in the Williston Basin getting attention, esp. the Madison.
6. The Bakken: manufacturing phase
7. The Bakken: activity in 2012 moves to northeastern McKenzie County
8. Operators establishing in-house oil service support (such as fracking)
9. Saudi sets $100 as new floor -- January 17, 2012
10. Boom continues in Williston; four new motels in play; luxury apartments downtown

December 28, 2011: Notice #9 in the list below -- I failed to mention the Madison formation.  Other than that, I'm not sure I would change the list except for one thing. Maybe omit EOR, and add this one if I have to keep the list to ten:

1. The drilling / fracking mismatch continues. Recent data suggests they will drill about 2,000 wells this year in North Dakota, and be able to frack only 700 wells. Nothing yet suggests this will be a huge difference next year. Something tells me the operators are not concerned about this mismatch. This may be working to their advantage. It's counterintuitive, but ...

Original Post

This post will disappear shortly, but it will be added to the "Top Ten Lists" linked at the sidebar on the right.

This list will change periodically, and it may not have "10" items, but I will do the best I can.

Maybe it's just my imagination but for the past six months I have seen an upsurge in stories about enhanced oil recovery (EOR). A year ago I did not even know what EOR was despite a friend sending me story after story about EOR and Denbury. Now, either it's my imagination or there really are a lot more stories on EOR.

So, that's the reason for this list. Try to get folks to thinking about trends in the oil patch..

Another trend is for more powerful, specialty rigs for unconventional shale plays, and the leader in this area seems to be H&P, so this will go on the top 10 trend list.

Readers can help me with the list. I'm not even sure it will amount to anything, but we'll see.

(A huge trend in 2010 was merger and acquisition in the Bakken --> XOM/XTO; Hess/AEZ/TRZ; OXY USA/Anschutz; DNR/Encore; etc; but that activity has slowed for the moment and I expect to see more of it in 2012 but not seeing a new trend yet. [In 2011, KOG buys BTA, and North Plains, all of the latter.]

A trend we will likely see in late 2012, or early 2013, will be stories on proppants, additives in hydraulic fracking, new ideas in these additives, as the Texas law takes effect for companies to release the content of their fracking cocktails.

So with that for introduction, the start of a new top ten list:

1. Enhanced oil recovery, EOR/CO2.
2. Specialty rigs, H&P. I mentioned it within the past year, and in the last six months it has gone from $50 to $73. 2Q11 announced contracts for 42 more rigs.
3. Fracking sand and proppants. EOG fracking sand plant in Wisconsin as example.
4. Crude-by-rail. Rail will have 400,000 bopd capacity in North Dakota by end of 2011 -- that exceeds current daily production; adds flexibility.
5. Energy focus moving to Western Hemisphere, away from OPEC. (Alaska, Canadian oil sands, Bakken, Niobrara, Eagle Ford, Utica, Venezuela (reserves > Saudi's), Brazil. France bans fracking; Libya in disarray.
6. Operators setting up in-house oil service support. Chesapeake already doing this; now Oasis says they are doing same thing.
7. The Bakken: the nation's largest industrial park. Paradigm shift: no longer drilling, but rather manufacturing. The industry will look to manufacturers to learn how to make unconventional operations more efficient.
8. Integrated companies splitting upstream/downstream: MRO, COP have announced; BP could be next.
9. More formations in play in North Dakota (Bakken, TF, Spearfish, Scallion, Lodgepole, Tyler, Red River).
10.  Fracking cocktails. Texas law takes effect in 2012 that requires companies to release contents of their fracking cocktails.