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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Well, That Was a Quick Turn in Oil Futures

So, I woke up this morning with oil futures down about 50 cents, maybe less; and, now, all of a sudden I see oil futures have spiked $1.40.

OPEC announced no plans to hike production.

I still maintain, in the near term:
  • $60 - $80: supply and demand, cost of production, classical business models, fundamentals
  • $80 - $100: strength of dollar, risk of inflation
  • $100 - $120: "more speculative," based on sudden changes in world events, wars, shortages
Whether they are being truthful or not, Saudi seems to be saying they like oil in the $80 - $100 range; at least one OPEC member said $100 - $120 was more appropriate.

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