Update
June 9, 2011, 2:00 p.m. -- Well, that was quite a turnaround. Down 16 cents now, natural gas is back to $4.68, well below the $4.95 we saw earlier. Even CNBC reported on the "plunge" earlier this morning. They were looking into whether there was some kind of glitch with the sudden drop, but a spokesman said the trades were valid and would stick.
So here we are, back to $4.68, but sill headed in the right direction.
Original Post
I'm not going to look for the link because it would take too much time, but about a year ago, I assume, I commented that I wouldn't buy shares in EOG until natural gas went above $5.00.
After posting that, EOG announced a strategic plan to shift to oil, and away from natural gas, at which time I bought some shares in EOG.
However, the transformation from a natural gas focus to an oil focus continues, and in the meantime, EOG and other natural gas producers are going to benefit from higher natural gas prices.
I see this morning that natural gas is five cents away from $5.00. Very, very interesting, how these things sneak up on folks. Remember: historically natural gas generally had its price spike in the autumn as folks gear up for winter heating. Something is going on in the natural gas arena and I'm not exactly sure what. It may be due to fact that utilities are switching from coal to natural gas in this country, or see the writing on the wall, that the EPA is about to make coal much more expensive, making a switch to natural gas economical.
I am curious what you mean by the phrase "tipping point". Could you please clarify? Do you mean that you expect the price will shoot higher (or lower)? It doesn't seem that staying in a range is what you are aluding to even if it is a higher range than in the recent past. What??? I have followed financial news many years and the term "tipping point" has no particular "standard" meaning to me. You seem to have some expectation on the price of nat gas if the price breaks through the $5 "barrier". Could you please provide us with your wisdom on this?
ReplyDeleteAlso, if the price closed at $4.68 than it would appear to be headed DOWN. In your mind is this the right direction?
Very good observation -- I went back to the posting, and I think I mentioned "tipping point" only in the heading.
ReplyDeleteThe definition of tipping point: the culmination of a build-up of small changes that effects a big change.
For me to buy more shares in companies that would benefit from higher price natural gas, I had set a price of $5.00 for natural gas before I would buy.
And, thus, that's my tipping point / decision point as it were, to buy shares in EOG, COP, CHK, etc., if natural gas were to remain above $5.00.
With regard to the sudden reversal today, that would make it less likely for me to buy natural gas E&P companies. It had nothing to do with my thoughts on whether natural gas might go lower or higher. I don't follow natural gas closely enough to have any idea where natural gas should be priced.
I feel much more comfortable with oil.