Pay particular attention to the last six months of this year (2011).
According to May 10 statistics from the US Energy Information Administration, total world oil consumption will grow by 1.4 million bpd (barrels per day) in 2011. Although this is about 0.1 million bpd below last month's EIA Monthly Energy Outlook, the agency predicts demand growth of 1.6 million bpd in 2012, slightly higher than forecast in April.
Meanwhile, supply from non-OPEC countries should increase by an average of 0.6 million bpd annually through 2012, EIA said. The preponderance of supply will come from Brazil, Canada, China and countries of the former Soviet Union, EIA forecasts.
Not to say that the current forecast is right or wrong but what were ruchir and the eia forecasting in May of 2008 just before the price collapsed? And if they missed that call did they offer an excuse (if so what was it) or just move on to the next half baked forecast?
ReplyDeleteIt's been my observation that oil forecasts and 75 cents will get you a small cup of coffee at McDonald's. And no refill.
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