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Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Double-Dip Recession?

Yesterday -- or was it two days ago -- I blogged about how pundits had quit talking about a double-dip recession, suggesting this movie is not yet over.

"Anonymous" assured me that the recession was clearly over, in our "rear view mirror" as she put it.

Well, today, the view in that mirror just got a bit bigger and/or closer.

2 comments:

  1. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm
    There have been seven consecutive quarters of real GDP growth starting with fq4 of 2009. It's now 2011. The fed has pubically stated they will promote a growth agenda no matter what the elected branches of our government does. Corporate earnings are robust, equities are strong and companies are flush with cash and providing optimistic guidance. The current quarter is strong.

    I think it is good to recall that there is always political unrest even war and the economy has thrived. Unemployment lags in a recovery because companies Are reactant to hire until they have to. That is just historical fact. Caution is always prudent but latching on to selected negative points is a mistake.

    ...reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion, which by reasoning he never acquired... Jonathan Swift

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  2. I won't argue.

    But today two more things popped up that concerns me.

    First: I was reminded that the 1.8% growth in GDP was so low partly because of decrease in spending by US government. I believe that was the greatest drag on GDP which surprised a few CNBC talking heads. Now, Congress (at least the House) wants even more cuts in spending, before signing on to raising the debt limit.

    Second: I got a note from someone (much smarter than I am on these matters) who noted that activity in the bond market today suggested further slowing of the economy. We may not go negative, but less than 1% growth in GDP at this stage is just about as bad. Psychologically, the impact on the market would be about the same.

    But you are correct. Maybe it would be best to just link the news rather than put some "hair on fire" crazy comment that I so often do.

    I often think I would do better just to stick with facts about the Bakken, but it would be less fun.

    I am inappropriately bullish on the Bakken, and very bullish with regard to US economy and investing, so once in awhile it might be good for me to point out some negatives.

    But I do appreciate you taking the time to comment.

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