Pages

▼

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Double-Dip Recession?

The pundits all say the momentum of the US economy is such that the possibility of a double-dip recession is out of the question. In fact, even the talk of a DDR has pretty much disappeared from mainstream media.

At some point enough time will have elapsed from the most recent recession to the next recession that it won't qualify as a DDR, simply the business cycle.

I wonder if the unemployed and Wal-Mart shoppers agree. Perhaps technically it won't be a recession but it certainly might feel like a recession that never ended (and as Ronald Reagan would say, a depression for some). The two articles that caught my interest today:
The fact that jobless claims increased does not bother me one way or the other. I don't think much about first-claims unemployment until the numbers come out so I have no idea where the numbers will fall. What concerns me is that analysts (including the Fed chairman, I suppose) expected jobless claims to fall. When they see the actual numbers that showed an increase when they expected a decrease, I assume they have to re-set their forecasts across the board.

Meanwhile, the Fed admits inflation is coming, and the numbers out today confirm it. Core inflation this month is 1.5% compared to 0.4% last month. Gold just a hit a new record (April 28, 2011) and silver is flirting with an all-time record, nearing $50.  
at

2 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 28, 2011 at 10:18 AM

    Simple rule of thumb: If a pundit says something is out of the question, it's probably more likely than not.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Bruce OksolApril 28, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    Thank you for your support and taking the time to comment.

    I remain bullish about the economy, but I am concerned that the gap between the have's and the have not's is getting wider.

    A lot of Wal-Mart customers will empty their wallets to pay for gasoline on the way to the store.

    I don't invest in Wal-Mart, and I have no hidden agenda with regard to Wal-Mart, I am just thinking of folks who (barely) survive on cash from month-to-month. (In fact, a lot of these low-income folks in the inner cities don't even have the "luxury" of a nearby Wal-Mart, but I digress and that's a whole different story.)

    I apologize for digressing. Again, thank you for taking time to comment.

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.