Double-Dip Recession?

The pundits all say the momentum of the US economy is such that the possibility of a double-dip recession is out of the question. In fact, even the talk of a DDR has pretty much disappeared from mainstream media.

At some point enough time will have elapsed from the most recent recession to the next recession that it won't qualify as a DDR, simply the business cycle.

I wonder if the unemployed and Wal-Mart shoppers agree. Perhaps technically it won't be a recession but it certainly might feel like a recession that never ended (and as Ronald Reagan would say, a depression for some). The two articles that caught my interest today:

• The increase in first-time jobless claims surprise analysts
• Wal-Mart is noticing that its customers are "running out of money more quickly"

The fact that jobless claims increased does not bother me one way or the other. I don't think much about first-claims unemployment until the numbers come out so I have no idea where the numbers will fall. What concerns me is that analysts (including the Fed chairman, I suppose) expected jobless claims to fall. When they see the actual numbers that showed an increase when they expected a decrease, I assume they have to re-set their forecasts across the board.

Meanwhile, the Fed admits inflation is coming, and the numbers out today confirm it. Core inflation this month is 1.5% compared to 0.4% last month. Gold just a hit a new record (April 28, 2011) and silver is flirting with an all-time record, nearing $50.