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Thursday, April 14, 2011

AP: Increase in Unemployment Benefit Applications But Jobs Market Improving

Link here.
"Applications [for unemployment benefits] near 375,000 are consistent with a sustained increase in hiring."
The AP did not sound surprised or concerned: after all, it could be worse (and has been).

Reuters, along with the AP, noted that a one-month data point is not as important as the trend. Here are two trends:
  • The four-week moving average of unemployment claims -- a better measure of underlying trends - climbed 5,500 to 395,750.
  • The rise in claims interrupted a downward trend that had kept them below the 400,000 threshold for four weeks. That level is normally associated with steady job growth. Despite last week's rise, the four-week average held below the 400,000 mark for a seventh straight week.
Perhaps if things were going well and "more normal," 395,750 claims for unemployment benefits represents a sustained increase in hiring, but considering the hole that "we" are in with regard to unemployment, this is not good news, no matter how one spins it.

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