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Sunday, March 20, 2011

US Declares War On Libya: Oil Futures Up $2.10 -- Back to Near Recent All-Time High

Okay, okay, okay, before I get any "hate mail," I know the US did not declare war on Libya.

I do know that the US has fired more than 100 Tomahawk missiles into Libya.

I do know that futures for WTI oil are up $2.10 tonight.

Futures seldom reflect true trading the next day.

But something tells me, the floor for WTI oil will be a bit more than $60 when the market opens tomorrow. From everything I have read the past two years suggests that analysts have valued Bakken companies based on oil trading between $50 and $60 per barrel.

This is an opinion post, and no one should take any investing action on these type of posts.

[To be honest with you (and I always am), regardless of what your feelings about Kadafi are, this military action almost seems like a) target practice the US Navy wants since it has limited play in Afghanistan and Iraq; and, b) going after a fly with a sawed-off shotgun. Two shotguns. No wonder the President left town when the shooting began. One hundred ten Tomahawk missiles in the first night. And we're just getting started. Wow. Nobel peace prize for someone for making this UN decision, no doubt. Something tells me I'm not alone in my thinking.]

[A random thought. North Dakotans will know what I'm talking about. There is a great debate -- currently at the legislative level -- regarding the University of North Dakota mascot, the "Fighting Sioux."  The NCAA has demanded that UND change the mascot since it is not politically correct. I wonder if naming a weapon of major destruction a "Tomahawk" missile is any more politically correct.]
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March 21, 2011:
Lots of talk today about the "end game" in Libya. Let's assume we take the western coalition at its word, that this will be limited in scope, that it will be primarily a "no-fly zone" mission, and no US "boots on the ground." If so, it looks pretty much like all the western coalition has done is "level the playing field," literally and figuratively. If so, now the rebels and Khadafis' forces can fight it out with handguns and knives, which would become quite protracted, and in the end, if Khadafi is not removed, would result in the Khadafi family ultimately winning out.  If they get the oil fields back up and running, and if oil revenue flows back ot Khadafi, does one assume the money will be used to help the Libyans or be used to re-establish his military. Three guesses and the first two don't count. Is the French Foreign Legion going in?

2 comments:

  1. Well, Kadafi (or however it is spelt) is *killing* people for the purpose of remaining a dictator. Maybe you think the civilized nations in the world should stand aside and allow him to continue. If so, I'll nominate you for the Nobel peace prize. As to the Tomahawk name, allow me to put your mind at ease. There is no group of people anywhere in the world (Indian tribe or otherwise) who call themselves "The Tomahawks"

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  2. Most of us in North Dakota don't care either way about the Fighting Sioux "controversy". There's a group of people who are offended by it and a much smaller group who really want it to stay the Sioux for some reason. Most of us just want to watch them play.

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