Saudis Might Like What They're Seeing

Kudlow on CNBC's "Kudlow Report" tonight said the Saudi stock market "rocketed up" today. I don't follow the Saudi stock market so I don't know if the Saudi market simply recovered from falling so far after the Libyan thing, or if the Saudi market really has hit new highs.

Let's assume for argument's sake, that Kudlow was accurate when he said the Saudi stock market "rocketed up."

If the Saudis were comfortable about "controlling the day of rage," and comfortable about the Libyan thing, the Saudi market might have recovered, but I doubt those facts alone would have caused the Saudi market to rocket up.

A stock market rockets up on perceived earnings. If Kudlow was speaking accurately that the Saudi market rocketed up, it suggests to me Saudis see huge earnings. And the only earnings the Saudis have (for all intents and purposes) is oil or related to oil.

If the Saudis thought $104 oil was temporary, earnings might not be enough to move the needle on the Saudi stock market.

Hold that thought.

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All I've been hearing for the past few days with regard to oil is a) $100 oil won't affect overall economy by more than 0.2 to 0.5 percent GDP; and, b) the tipping point for Americans is $4.00 oil.  You don't have to agree with that; I don't know if I agree with that, but that's all I'm hearing from the pundits. If I'm hearing that from the pundits, I assume Saudi is hearing the same thing.

Saudi is hearing what I'm hearing: a) the American economy can handle $100 oil (in fact, the US administration doesn't seem a bit upset about it: permitorium remains in effect, and no "drill, drill, drill" speech by the president); and, b) Americans can handle gasoline up to $3.99/gallon.

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Now back to the thought you were holding. If Saudis thought $104 oil was temporary, it wouldn't affect earnings. And the market wouldn't have rocketed. Nope, if Kudlow was right, and the Saudi market rocketed, someone thinks Saudis earnings are going to be very, very good. For that to happen, someone thinks that Saudi is going to be selling oil for $100 for a long time, and, oh by the way, Saudi is being given a pass by the rest of OPEC to increase production.

Every time price of oil has gone up over the past fifty years, Saudi has been able to watch the effect on the American consumer, and learn what the American consumer can tolerate. I think Saudi is hearing from pundits that Americans can tolerate $100 oil and $3.50 gasoline. "We" may not agree with the pundits, but that's what the Saudis are hearing. Now they get to see if the pundits are right.

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Idle rambling. For all I now, the price of oil will plummet after Friday when the "day of rage" is a bust. For all I know oil will be back to $60 next week.

And it will be 95 degrees in North Dakota this weekend.

Actually, the Saudi market didn't rocket up all that much. It hasn't even recovered from its recent plunge. But I still think the Saudis like what they see.

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By the way, these are the February OPEC figures that show Saudi increased production to offset Libyan loss. Saudi increased production by 200,000 bopd = $15 million/day (at $75 oil) or an additional $450 million/month (on top of what they were already bringing in). Yeah, I think the Saudis like what they see.

And they like what they hear: the American economy can handle $100 oil.