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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

American Petro-Hunter: Three Pay Zones in Oklahoma -- Implications for the Bakken

From Oklahoma, this report:
[American Petro-Hunt's] NOS227 cut all three objectives as planned, these being the Mississippi of 85 feet, Woodford Shale of 45 feet and the lower Simpson of 4 feet. All three zones contain oil shows and following a suite of electronic logs, have the requisite permeability and porosity to produce oil in commercial quantities such that an immediate casing election was made. 
As noted many, many times on the milliondollarway.blogspot, focus is on the Bakken formation and to some extent the Three Forks formation. Lost in the discussion are the other formations: Tyler, Spearfish, Lodgepole, and the legacy formations. 

There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken, and once production is secure, lease is held for eternity (at my advanced age, 30 years is an "investing eternity"). At worse, most Bakken wells appear to pay for themselves in five years; many in four years; some in three years; etc., etc., and the Bakken wells are expected to produced for 30 years. 

To get to 100,000 barrels of oil over five years, the well only has to average 55 bbls/day. 

Average oil production in North Dakota is 58 bbls/day. The average daily production of oil in North Dakota for 2010 was 309,679 bbls. With 5,332 wells at the end of the year, that works out to 58 bbls/well/day. There were 4,638 wells at the beginning of the 2010 calendar year with a daily production of 236,199 bbls: that works out to 51 bbls/well/day.  

There was a net gain of 694 wells in calendar year 2010. 

This suggests to me that Bakken production is more than making up for the decline in the pre-Bakken boom wells.  

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