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Thursday, January 27, 2011

SeekingAlpha: Fact Checking Jim Rogers

This morning, on CNBC, Jim Rogers said the world is running out of oil (no new elephant fields will be discovered); that oil will hit $150 and then $200; and gasoline will hit $4.00 (maybe it was $5.00; I now forget).

Over at SeekingAlpha, a contributor "fact checked" Jim Rogers.

I'm not convinced that the SeekingAlpha contributor has adequately challenged Jim Rogers.

Two important points that the contributor relies on:
  • He trusts OPEC's estimate that their reserves make up 77 percent of global reserves in 2009; these figures have not been peer-reviewed and as the contributor says, "cartel members are notorious for cheating on their quotas"; and, 
  • The figures he uses to show that total oil reserves have increased over the last two decades includes total liquid reserves; even he admits that he would like to see crude oil broken out separately from other liquids. These other liquids can not be used like crude oil for transportation fuel.
I'll stick with Jim Rogers, and hope I'm wrong.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 28, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    $4.00 gas is nearly here....Unleaded gas here in Contra Costa County, CA is $3.43 today...and FYI we have a few refineries in this county.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Bruce OksolJanuary 28, 2011 at 8:22 PM

    I forget the exact price, so I could be wrong, but I think we were paying $3.59 in Huntington Beach / Long Beach / San Pedro during early January, 2011.

    Thank you for stopping by.

    In the big scheme of things, even though I am invested in oil-related holdings, I would prefer gasoline to stay well below $3.50. I think it will have a much bigger effect on the economy than some folks think.

    Good luck to all, regardless.

    ReplyDelete

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