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Saturday, November 20, 2010

China's Largest Refiner Halts Diesel Exports -- Not a Bakken Story

I have no idea if this story will become a bigger story by Monday or if it's just a single pixel on my radar scope.

But there's something about the story that intrigues me.

China's largest oil refiner has halted diesel exports. There is not a real shortage of diesel in China. The government has withheld diesel in an attempt to slow the economy. It has resulted in unintended consequences. The price of diesel has increased dramatically, driving prices of food significantly higher (farmers use lots of diesel in crop production).

So, in response to the (non)-shortage of diesel, Sinopec, China's largest oil refiner, has halted all diesel exports to bring more diesel to the market that the government has withheld. It appears it is not illegal in China to try to meet diesel needs; it's just that the government is not going to release its strategic reserves. (I don't know how this works, but I assume a US analogy: if the govt decided to increase oil storage in the strategic reserve to point of decreasing amount of oil available to American refiners; American refiners could respond by importing more oil from foreign sources, or increase domestic drilling.)

What makes the newspapers is seldom the full story. The real question is what is really going on with diesel in China? Is there really nothing more to the story? How will this play out Monday in the oil markets? Could there be a perception that there is a shortage of oil in China? Is there a shortage of oil in China? Is this just a "cover" story by the Chinese government? This may turn out to be a non-story, just as the shortage is a non-shortage, but something tells me this could get very interesting.

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