Some data points from others:
- WLL says they will recover eight (8) percent of the original oil in place (OOIP)
- WLL prefers < 30 frac stages
- WLL does not care for Eco-Pad format
- In addition to four to five long middle Bakken laterals in Sanish sections, WLL putting in "wing" wells (short laterals) as well as long TFS laterals
Recovering eight (8) percent of the OOIP is a huge story; original USGS estimates of recoverable oil in the Bakken was in the range of 1 - 3 percent. (I believe those figures came from USGS but might have come from other analysts after the 2008 USGS report.)
Off-topic but this reminds me of Apple Corporation twenty years ago. Everyone felt Apple Corporation was doomed with only two percent penetration in the PC (personal computer model). No one thought Apple could survive. "Believers" in Apple noted that the corporation would double in size if it only got to four percent penetration. Not an appropriate analogy, but eight percent is four times two percent. That's huge. And that's still only eight percent.
In filings with the ND Oil and Gas Commission, especially related to requests for field extensions, companies include evaluation of the OOIP, EUR, estimated % recoveries along with other economic assumptions. The recovery percentages have routinely been running well over 10% lately when full development is evaluated. These numbers can be easily misinterpreted. As an example, it's common for a filing to request a single well on a 1280 spacing. In this instance, the recovery % will be given for this well alone - perhaps at 3.5%. For a 3 well request on a 1280 drilling unit, as is common with Hess lately, the recovery % will be reported as 10.5%. This, of course, points to dramatic and ongoing increases in our evalaution of the Bakken and Three Forks potentials. While it's just an estimation, it's usually based on direct experience in an area.
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Several times on this blog I have raised the issue of a disconnect along these same lines.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me, when I first started following the Bakken, the analysts were estimating EUR for a section, whereas producers were estimating EUR for wells (and, thus the disconnect between the two). The analysts were often academicians or government employees. The latter were looking at potential tax revenue whereas producers were looking at the economics of a given well.
It is obvious that, at least in the core Bakken, the EUR of each section will be a multiple of a number of wells.
Which reminds me, Hess was on the daily activity report today with six permits for (I assume a single pad) in Tioga field, SESW 8-157N-94W.
Slide 32 in the Whiting presentation is especially interesting. It shows what can be done with their leading edge microseismic array and tells us a great deal about the extent of fracturing that occurs, both along the length of the bore and lateral extent. With 750 foot wings for a breadth of 1500 feet one sees the rationale for 3 laterals on a 1 mile breadth.
ReplyDeleteThe 6 Hess wells permitted are planned on a single pad - all dual laterals, using a Nabors B2 rig with a walking rig addition. Twelve bores from a single pad is not only compelling lean manufacturing, it's appealing to those who live and work on the land.
Hess342
Excellent. I knew next to nothing about "the Bakken" when I started blogging on this two or three years ago. I read a few scientific articles, but even with my science background, I have great difficulty understanding them.
ReplyDeleteHowever, looking at the GIS map server on a daily basis and looking at every new permit, etc., I opined about a year ago that the lateral effect (extent) was about 400 either side, 800-foot breadth. I was at least in the ballpark.
This is not the end of the story; I assume we will see much more about this going forward.
The other story I am most interested in is the horrendous decline rate. I'm beginning to think that the drillers will figure this out, too, before it's all over. My limited understanding is that water reacts with something ("ash") in the Bakken formations that gums up the fractures. That may be simplistic thinking but I'm just learning.
Regarding the little Apple that keeps following me around, I assume you've attempted to use it for the ND GIS. Nearly unusable.
ReplyDeleteHess342
You are correct. Yes, there are some things the iPad does not do, that I wish it did. I love the iPad.
ReplyDeleteI was going to write a post but then held back, but I was going to say this: If I knew how to write "apps" for the iPad, I would write an "app" for the GIS map server.
I would write an "app" that truckers, land owners, mineral rights owners, etc, could simply tap on and within a few taps (no typing) get to information about a particular well: location, production, satellite images, etc.
The iPad is barely out of the chute. I got my 3G/wi-fi version the first day it came out (April 30, 2010) -- yes, I was one of those "fanboys" who stood in line -- got the 32gb (middle) version.
I doubt we will see Bakken apps but I think folks will be amazed what apps eventually come out. Right now, too many games, entertainment. Fortune 500 companies are going to put their best minds at work on how to make the iPad work for them.
If you have not guess, my three greatest "lovess" (after family): a) the Bakken story; b) the Apple story; and, c) country music. And generally in that order.
Another disappointment: too much glare with the iPad; can't use it outside; I think Apple will sort that out eventually.
Having said that, I wonder if some oil company might not hire someone to write such an app to deal with the GIS map server.
ReplyDeleteIn the 1980s when I was an educator living in the area that has now become the Bakken's sweetest spot, a significant Madison discovery, the easternmost ND discovery (except for the northern trend), occurred in our school district. I was creating a North Dakota GIS at the time and so added all of ND well and stratigraphy information to it. With this data underlying it, I was easily able to create functions that revealed information graphically that would have taken major effort to reveal by more traditional methods. Interface commands could simply take the form: Make [anything] [color]. So, for example, by issuing a command like: Make Silurian wells green, in a few second you saw the picture. Or, make IP > 1000 blue, or make Continental wells blue. I'd like to see similar functions added to the current GIS.
ReplyDeleteHess342
One wonders if someone at the UND research center -- the EERC -- might be interested in doing this as a research project. I would think a lot of graduate students do theses that get published and lost. An AAPL iPad application would be a great project and would make someone a bit of money. Since I doubt few people read these comments, I will get around to a stand-alone post hoping that someone at the EERC reads it.
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