The Value of High IPs

There is an article in today's Bismarck Tribune: The numbers are in! The first wells to report from the Niobrara in southeast Wyoming are promising but not earthshattering.

There has been a lot of talk over the past two years regarding initial production numbers from the Bakken wells.

It has been said that some companies are more interested in high initial production numbers even if that means less ultimate recovery. Common sense seems to suggest that high production numbers will attract investors. I won't argue one way or the other; I think we are still a long way off sorting out the debate whether high IPs affect long term EURs.

Having said that, I do think the high IPs that were reported in the early Bakken boom attracted a lot of interest, and was one of six reasons why the Bakken developed as quickly as it did.

Hearing that the first numbers coming out of southeastern Wyoming are "promising but not earthshattering" may cause some operators to put their focus back on the Bakken. As a reminder, some have opined that it will take a lot longer, even under the best of circumstances, to develop the Niobrara than it took to develop the Bakken in North Dakota. American Oil (AEZ) was one of the first to act on that, by selling all their assets in the Niobrara and becoming a pure-Bakken play. It has since been bought by Hess.

Note: one thing that the Bismarck Tribune article failed to discuss was the cost of the wells in southeastern Wyoming. If they are not as deep as those in the North Dakota Bakken, they may not cost as much. There is a lot more to this than just the production numbers. The cost of the wells, the regulatory ease of drilling, and EURs mean a lot more than initial production numbers, to include the first several months of production.