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Friday, October 15, 2010

IPs and Production

If you've been following my posts for the past several weeks, you will notice that I have come down firmly on the observation that the smarter operators are looking for lower IPs. That's just an opinion, and we will see how that plays out.

Here is an interesting comment regarding same subject, just posted today: a well with half the IP of another well is actually producing more.

Likewise, more insight into the Fidelity process: fewer frac stages, less fluid.

I will continue to post IPs, and will continue to highlight wells with high IPs (it's almost impossible not to) but I will also point out what appear to be good wells regardless of their IPs.

4 comments:

  1. embraceyourinnerhillbillyOctober 16, 2010 at 2:45 PM

    Hi Bruce,

    Is it possible to post follow-up IP's? i.e. after 60 days post a follow up production number, and then again after an additional 60 days? This way we'll have a solid idea of the decline rate over 4 months.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I don't subscribe to any NDIC services, so as far as I know I don't have access to those numbers. I rely on others who provide some production numbers.

    However, I am seriously thinking of subscribing to NDIC services so I can see those numbers. (I'm just afraid of being inundated with data. My compulsive-obsessive nature might be overwhelmed. But I'll see what I can do, but not right away.)

    Your timing is quite coincidental. I have just posted a comment about different types of fracking which may affect decline rates; I don't understand this all that well, but I'm sure folks will explain more as we go along. My hunch is that the drillers are working hard on the horrendous decline rate problem.

    ReplyDelete
  3. While alreay doing yeoman's work on this blog the idea of following up on each cited well would be beyond the pale - something for interested persons to tackle personally. Even with NDIC subscription access, (probably the world's finest public oil basin database and interface) 60 and 120 day reporting wouldn't be possible. All that's available is the number of barrels produced in a month and the number of production days. Day 60 and day 120 would fall on the last day of the month for less tha 1% of wells.

    The idea of seeing actual production over time however, is exactly what's required to get a meaningful perspective on well production. The available monthly numbers actually provide that perspective.

    Hess342

    ReplyDelete
  4. 1. How coincidental. I was just looking at NDIC's form for subscribing to paid services. I wasn't going to do that yet, but still thinking about it.

    2. You are correct. I would go nuts -- it's beyond the pale -- to try to follow 60- and 120-day production on each well. In fact, the Bakken Shale Discussion Group has been great in providing some of that data. And when the day 60 / day 120 did not fall at the end of the month, you can imagine my obsessive/compulsiveness doing all the calculations. It would be nuts.

    3. At this point, I am more interested in the general trend of the decline rates, and not all that interested in decline rates for individual wells. Corporate presentations are doing a pretty good job of showing those trends. And when the drillers solve the decline rate, we will hear about it.

    4. The initial decline rate is probably less important than the final "leveling" off rate.

    5. You are very correct about NDIC's database, GUI, and GIS map server. I find the website incredible. I have tried using similar websites from Wyoming, Montana and Utah, (and although it may be that I didn't spend enough time familiarizing myself with the sites), they seemed to be nowhere near as good as NDIC's.

    6. Thank you for making me think twice (and thrice) on the NDIC subscription service with regard to following individual wells; sanity it important here. I'll probably just refer those questions to the Discussion Group.

    ReplyDelete

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