Hoping To See Lower IPs, Lower 24-Hour Flowback Results

There is some suggestion that maximizing the 24-hour flowbacks may be hurting the results of the fracking process and, ultimately the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of the well.

Think about it: one forces under high pressure a huge amount of fluid, pushing proppants into manmade fractures. The purpose of the proppants: to remain in place to hold the fractures open. A high backflow literally flushes these very proppants back out of the fractures. The proppants were placed there to help hold the fractures open. I would assume the drillers are analyzing the content of the initial flowback to see how much proppant is being returned to the surface.

Perhaps limiting the flowbacks might begin to decrease the horrendous decline rates.

With that in mind, I'm hoping to see lower IPs and/or lower 24-hour flowback results reported by the drillers. I think "we" are past the point where "we" need to impress investors with ever-increasing 24-hour flowbacks.

My hunch is that the EURs of wells in a specific area are the same, all things being equal. What is not equal is the driller's expertise and the processes used to recover the oil.

Right now, some of the companies provide data on 24-hour flowbacks, IPs, 30-day average, 60-day average, and 90-day average production. Once we start seeing 270- and 360-day average production on PowerPoint presentations, we will know that companies are solving the horrendous decline rate.