According to the press release today, CLR now has 864,559 net acres leased in the Bakken (mostly North Dakota, but also in Montana).
If one divides the net acreage by 640 (the number of acres in a section), CLR has the equivalent of 1,351 sections. Let's round that off to 1,350.
Based on Whiting's activities in the best of the Bakken, one can imagine six wells in each section, three for the middle Bakken formation and three for the Three Forks Sanish. In addition, Hess has a number of six-well multi-pads.
In the best of the Bakken, the EUR for a well is estimated to be as high as 750,000 barrels, or more. Being very conservative, let's put the average EUR for these hypothetical CLR wells at 450,000 barrels.
Six (6) wells x 1,350 sections = 8,100 wells.
8,100 wells x 0.450 million barrels = 3,645 million barrels = 3.645 billion barrels.
I was going to calculate the dollar value at the wellhead based on $60/barrel, but my little calculator couldn't go up that far.
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Current estimates of potential recoverable oil from Montana and North Dakota Bakken, from the Bismarck Tribune, October 5, 2010:
Two years ago, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, using current technology. The agency called it the largest continuous oil accumulation it has ever assessed.
A study released this year by North Dakota's Industrial Commission said current technology could lead to the recovery of about 1.9 billion barrels in the Three Forks-Sanish formation in North Dakota.CLR, by itself, could account for much of that.
Again, just back-of-the-envelope calculations.
almost all of clr's are 2 mile drilling units .I think their estimates of eur per well is overly optimistic . I hope they are right as I lease to them. jj
ReplyDeleteI think the drillers are going to solve the horrendous decline rate problem; when they do, all bets are off. As it is, the govt agencies estimate only 1 - 3 percent of original oil in place will be recovered. There are suggestions that this estimate is already too conservative. If the estimate is raised to 2 to 6 percent, that doubles the EUR.
ReplyDeleteFor those who doubt Harold Hamm, re-reading the Forbes article back in February, 2009, is enlightening (http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0202/066.html).
Good luck with your wells. I think you will do very, very well.
Hess stated in a presentation that they expect to get 1 Million barrels out of each dual-lateral well over it's life. Yet their IPs are low and monthly rates of barrels is about 4000-5000 barrels a month. Maybe they are looking at long term runs as opposed to fast 1 year runs... who knows.
ReplyDeleteI used to give Hess a lot of grief about "lackluster" wells. I'm re-thinking my stance.
ReplyDeleteI will continue to note the IPs, of course, and will be as excited as anyone else with new records, but it appears that we might be entering a new stage with regard to attitude regarding 24-hour flowbacks, especially if there's any indication that huge IPs might be undermining the success of the fracking.
I am way out of my depth on this, so it is just idle chatter, but something to follow.
Bruce said:
ReplyDeleteI was going to calculate the dollar value at the wellhead based on $60/barrel, but my little calculator couldn't go up that far.
With an iTouch calculator habit it was surprising that the iPad didn't include one. Calculator 4 for the iPad is free for 2 more days. I use Calculator HD for iPad (99 cents). It takes 2 seconds to fire up but the Tape function alone is worth the price. In scientific mode you'll get sufficient digits.
The Hess well reported yesterday is a good example of their IP reporting - 25,000 barrels in the first month and reported at about 740. Many of the wells reported at 2000+ fall short of this.
Hess342
I guess I compartmentalize too much. I never thought of using technology (scientific calculator) when using the back of an envelope. But I do need to download a scientific calculator for my iPad. Right now I am just using a "free" four-function calculator.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your suggestion.
Calculators are another areas where touch screens shine. With audio you get feedback. Fast on makes it practical where full OSs aren't.
ReplyDeleteHess342
The "fast on" feature is one of the best things about the iPad.
ReplyDeleteFast on, sufficient screen size with portability, AND an open file system - the holy grail.
ReplyDeleteHess342