Peak Oil and BP Oil Spill Revisited

If other nations follow suit in slowing down or limiting off-shore drilling altogether, "peak oil" is probably nearer than most people think, according to a story in the Christian Science Monitor.

Two things I do not subscribe to: a) man-made global warming theory; and, b) peak oil theory, in their current renditions. I am not saying that either theory is completely inaccurate, but we are certainly not getting the whole story. When it comes to both theories, I follow a) the money; and, b) the politics.

With regard to peak oil theory, a) the US is swimming in natural gas; and, b) we have decades of coal available to convert to liquid hydrocarbon (althought there is an opposing view: a recent study that suggests this is not true).

Our energy problems are a policy problem, not a "peak oil" problem. Oil prices certainly do not reflect any near-term concern with peak oil. They are down again today (June 23, 2010).

The article linked above asks when "peak oil" arrives. Two sources in the article "believe" we are already there or passed it a few years ago (that's obviously incorrect to anyone with any common sense); a third source says 2025.

As stated before, "peak oil" theorists have not defined the concept well enough for me to understand (or more likely, I am the only one who misunderstands the concept and everyone else understands it perfectly):

Is peak oil when ACTUAL production falls off, or when POTENTIAL production is reached?

If today, someone discovered a cheaper, cleaner, safer alternative to oil that replaced all need for oil, the actual production would drop to zero, and thus yesterday would have been the day "we" saw peak oil production. However, if all of a sudden, the global economy takes off and oil consumption rises significantly, and price of oil rises to $300/barrel, I can guarantee you that oil production would take off.

Yes, someday the world will use less oil but it will be due more to economics than to actual last drop of oil being found.