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Saturday, April 24, 2010

Stalling?

Is it just me or have others noticed the relative paucity of new wells reported this past month?

If there is a paucity of wells being reported, I can think of two reasons: 1) backlog of fracking; I understand the backlog can be up to six months now (posted earlier) -- if I find link, I will link it; and, 2) are drillers watching the price of oil go up and waiting?  Some folks in the oil patch think so. When you get to this link, scroll down and read their comments. It might just be idle chatter but something to think about.

The Bakken wells are very peculiar in their huge decline rate after just one month. If the decline rate is significant (say, from 900 bbls/day in the first month to 300 bbls/day in the second month, and then steady from there on out for awhile) and the price of oil is headed up, would it not be wise to wait to complete the well sometime down the road, hoping the price of oil will be higher than today.

If there was an insignificant decline, the price of oil over the long term would average out, but if one's return is front-loaded, one might be watching the price of oil very, very closely.

I don't know, but some are talking. And the relative paucity of wells reported this past month ... well, "nuf said.

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