Investing: NOG

Temporary Link: The 2011 "Bear Raid" on NOG

Yahoo!Financial: NOG.



4Q10 Earnings
3Q10 Earnings

2010 Enercom NOG Presentation
2Q10 10Q 
2Q10, Earnings Release
1Q10, Earnings Release
Conference Presentation, Mar 2010
2009 Annual Statement (Report)
Conference Presentation, Dec 2009
No Holds Barred, February, 2010 -- for seasoned investors only -- will require you to sign in at Google Groups to access -- great discussion on relevancy of IPs

NEWS

July 21, 2011: NOG looks like a winner -- Motley Fool. 

June 8, 2011: NOG to investors -- "Stick with us."

The CEO of Northern Oil and Gas Inc. tried to assure shareholders at the company's annual meeting on Wednesday that management has an aggressive business plan that will prove doubters wrong.

The stock price of the four-year-old company has been cut in half since March amid accusations of sloppy accounting and insider conflicts. Michael Reger, Northern's CEO, acknowledged that the Wayzata-based management of the North Dakota oil field-leasing company has a credibility problem.

Northern's stock has fallen from a $33.98 per share peak in March, amid heavy insider selling, to a Wednesday close of $17.84 per share. The stock has risen about 5 percent in the past two days on higher oil prices and a supportive analyst report.

The company's detractors, including CNBC's Herb Greenberg, have been saying that Northern can no longer buy land cheaply and that it's vulnerable to more experienced competitors flooding the Williston Basin of North Dakota.

May 13, 2011: In response to recent "bear raid": on wives, friends and beauticians. All the "stuff" needed for a sitcom. 

March 28, 2011: SeekingAlpha.com responds to recent "bear raid." NOG responds to recent "bear raid" and provides operational update.

March 21, 2011: Questions about NOG's valuation and concerns about NOG's failure to account for steep production declines in Bakken wells.

March 1, 2011: NOG a buy, Seeking Alpha.

February 25, 2011: NOG added to S&P MidCap 400. Huge development.

February 18, 2011: Investor's Business Daily with a nice little article on NOG.

January 20, 2011: SeekingAlpha -- positive article on NOG.

November 24, 2010: NOG raises $200 million; 10 million new shares; oversubscribed; share price up.

November 16, 2010: Will issue 9.2 million new shares (18% of current outstanding) and will double its CAPEX program for 2011.

September 5, 2010: Highlights of the 2010 Enercom NOG presentation.

August 10, 2010: NOG breaks out --up 7 percent on 4 times usual volume.

May 11, 2010: NOG earns 4 cents/share (revised from previously announced 3 cents/share).

April 28, 2010: Recent stock offering -- 5.7 million new shares; raised $82.8 million. Over-allotment.

2009 Earnings Report -- see press release

NOG Press Release, March 8, 2010: Fiscal Year 2009 Earnings

2009 Earnings, 2009 vs 2008
2009: net earnings of $2.8 million on oil and natural gas sales of $15  million
2008: net earnings of $2.4 million on oil and natural gas sales of $3.5 million
Wasn't price of oil higher in 2008? If so, the 2009 numbers are even more impressive

Reserves

2009: 6 million barrels boe proved reserves
2009: 700% increase over 2008 proved reserves
2009: 2,065% replacement of 2009 production
Those numbers were based on SEC pricing parameters of $53/bbl
Using constant realized net prices of $72/bbl, proved reserves jump to 10 million boe 

Production

2009: 282K boe
2008: 51K boe
Results represent a 448% increase in production

Net wells

2009: 9 wells; producing approximatley 1,508 boepd
As of March 1, 2010, NOG has completed or is completing an addition 3.45 net wells with approximately 1,986 boepd

Slawson wells that NOG participated in, names and 20-day production rates:

Stallion 1-1-12H: 1,525
Zephyr 1-36H: 1,245
Ripper 1-22H: 975
Minx 1-28H: 923
Fox 1-28H: 1,139
Bazooka 1-20H: 1,042

Other wells NOG participated in:

Highland 1-9H (Sinclair Oil): 564
Edwards 5992 44-10 (Oasis Petroleium): 478
Van Hook 100-15H TFS (EOG): 1,585
Liffrig 29-20 1-H TFS (BEXP): 2,477
Norman 1-9H (CLR): 1,366
Arvid 2-34H (CLR): 407

For more, go to NOG's press release, March 8, 2010
Note: IPs will vary depending on who is reporting

COMMENTARY
(Written following 3Q09 Earnings Report)

Although NOG missed the analysts' earning estimates by 20%, four cents vs five cents, it still had a very interesting press release for third quarter earnings. [Actually, I have to chuckle at that. With MSFT or AAPL there are probably a 100 analysts; for NOG, I would be surprised if more than two analysts follow the company as closely and as well as analysts follow a Fortune 500 company.]

1. Production cost: $2.50/bbl. Sell price: $58/bbl (with hedges taken into account)
2. First development well: 16 days; $2.9 million; 18-stage fracture
3. Partnered with Slawson.
4. Discussion thread on this press release

NOG has partnered with Slawson. Slawon is a well-known oil exploration and production company in North Dakota but, to the best of my knowledge, is not publicly traded. Slawson ,by the way, was a huge participant in the November 3, 2009, North Dakota state land lease auction that set a record ($71 million vs $30 million in 1980).

If one wants to "invest" in Slawson, perhaps one way is to invest in NOG.

Slawson has has 37 wells on the confidential list. In addition, many of the Slawson wells are in the Van Hook field on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation and on the watch list. A more comprehensive posting on the Slawson wells in Big Bend/Van Hook (FBIR) can be found here. 

I do own a very small amount of NOG and added to my position this week (it's a trivial amount in my overall portfolio). I raised cash by selling a small amount of SLB and some WMB which I
have had for some time. SLB and WMB have been two of my core holdings over the years.

NEWS

November 9, 2009: NOG has closed $59.3 million registered direct common stock offering.

Comment: NOG, BEXP, and probably others have recently raised more money through common stock offering. It should be noted that these stock offerings occurred at exactly the same period when North Dakota announced a record land lease auction ($70 million vs $30 million previous record in 1980, adjusted for inflation, worth $80 million).

July 20, 2009: Press release.