tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post6041285475716983823..comments2024-03-28T15:12:38.709-05:00Comments on The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): Only Six New Permits, North Dakota; ISIS Makes Significant Advances -- October 13, 2014Bruce Oksolhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-34530783740384571972014-10-13T23:33:41.721-05:002014-10-13T23:33:41.721-05:00This is what makes the Bakken so incredibly intere...This is what makes the Bakken so incredibly interesting. <br /><br />Generally speaking, drilling can be done year around. On any given day, weather in the Bakken can play havoc with drilling. I remember the number of reports in the Director's Cut when drilling days were decreased simply because the wind was too strong. <br /><br />The major challenge with fracking is a) cold weather; b) getting proppant and water to the site. The cold weather issue is eliminated by scheduling no fracking between November and March, something that becomes more feasible with pad drilling.<br /><br />Getting proppant and water to the site becomes an issue when road restrictions are put in (the spring). Road restrictions are a bit more variable, but not much. Again, no fracking during the two-month period (or however long it is) when road restrictions are in effect. Pad drilling, again, provides that flexibility.<br /><br />The point I'm trying to make: pad drilling changes everything. One can make a case for no fracking between November and March taking weather out of the equation. But yes, on any given day when the temperature if 40 degrees below zero, the temperature has more of an effect on fracking than drilling. Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-56370644552615362382014-10-13T23:11:50.477-05:002014-10-13T23:11:50.477-05:00A couple of things about the fracking of wells. On...A couple of things about the fracking of wells. One, the actual frac job takes up to five days, but the time it takes to haul the needed water and sand or prop pants to location takes days to a couple weeks, depending on the number of trucks hauling. <br />Secondly, weather has more of an effect on fracking than drilling. Drilling rigs are built to run no matter the temperature. Frac jobs usually are postponed if very cold temperatures are expected, due to the inability to keep the water warm enough so it doesn't freeze as the frac is in progress. Most of the time the water needs to be heated to a certain temp for the frac to work properly and it can't be kept warm enough when temps are below zero. I know of fracs that were postponed because the temps were 10 to 20 degrees below zero, and the heating equipment could not keep up. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-67093984156838821012014-10-13T22:50:40.565-05:002014-10-13T22:50:40.565-05:00Mandan. Puts Bismarck-Mandan back into play.
Lot...Mandan. Puts Bismarck-Mandan back into play. <br /><br />Lots of water? Devils Lake, he said, "tongue-in-cheek."Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-31449655064508839272014-10-13T22:43:36.122-05:002014-10-13T22:43:36.122-05:00Fargo is too high class in their own mind to suppo...Fargo is too high class in their own mind to support a petrlchemical plant. There simply is not enough water there or I Wahpeton or Jamestown. This plan needs a bunch of cooling water as the ethane will be heated to 1500 F for milliseconds and then quenched.<br /><br />Along the Mo River is the logical place. Stanton, Washburn, Wilton, or Mandan north of Tesoro.<br /><br />A wild card is Grand Forks neat the proposed fertilizer plant. The Red is much bigger there, the fertiler plant will be synergistic, and land is cheap with some of the alkali land N and W of GF.<br /><br />These jobs won't be filled by most Target workers. Chemical opators have to be skilled in computer controls and need to be handy with a wrench and be able to ascend ladders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-65016896750288132172014-10-13T22:29:50.998-05:002014-10-13T22:29:50.998-05:00Way too many issues to discuss here.
It's co...Way too many issues to discuss here. <br /><br />It's counter-intuitive but weather is a bigger problem for drilling than fracking, but that's simply my opinion. If someone else feels that weather is a bigger problem for fracking than drilling, that may simply be an opinion. It could be fact. The problem with "anonymous" comments we don't know the credibility of those posting. If Harold Hamm says weather is a bigger problem for fracking than for drilling, I would take his word for it. But with "anonymous" comments, there's no telling.<br /><br />Everyone should pretty much know my expertise: none. <br /><br />Whatever I "know" about the Bakken has simply been from following the Bakken day in and day out from 2007 and posting multiple times daily since then. I have no formal training, education, or background in oil. I certainly could be very, very wrong on most of what I post when it comes to "musings" on the Bakken. Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-40963462445230092512014-10-13T22:14:07.359-05:002014-10-13T22:14:07.359-05:00Curious, why is do you feel the cost of fracking i...Curious, why is do you feel the cost of fracking is high? I understood it was 3-5 days of work. Relative to the moving of rigs and the staffing of rigs, I wouldn't have thought the fracking was a greater cost.<br /><br />Also, the last comment about the drilling being less weather limited than fracking is curious. I agree that if there is a backlog of wells drilled and needing fracking, then that is where the focus should be.<br /><br />This is all really interesting as to understanding the drilling process/cost and associated fracking cost .NDoilgalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01153330362786894081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-86419040582368907772014-10-13T21:53:58.956-05:002014-10-13T21:53:58.956-05:00You may be correct.You may be correct.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-31119770645936874202014-10-13T21:51:53.975-05:002014-10-13T21:51:53.975-05:00But the drilling is less weather limited than the ...But the drilling is less weather limited than the fracking. So I don't see why "squeezing in before winter" would be the rationale. <br /><br />Also, if there is a big pile-up waiting for completion, why drill more? The factor you mention argues the opposite way (e.g. they can catch up with drilling later if price goes up).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-36557021004093845622014-10-13T21:47:21.834-05:002014-10-13T21:47:21.834-05:00Common sense is not "common," I once hea...Common sense is not "common," I once heard someone say. Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-88998510318585033212014-10-13T21:45:18.642-05:002014-10-13T21:45:18.642-05:00I agree with you that it will be late winter Febru...I agree with you that it will be late winter February/March before we start to see UNANTICIPATED changes in rig counts. Things are in motion and to some extent on "auto-pilot." The oil companies constantly / continuously review short-term and long-term plans. Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-73717374016112506412014-10-13T21:41:54.317-05:002014-10-13T21:41:54.317-05:00Somehow I accidentally deleted the following comme...Somehow I accidentally deleted the following comment from Jane Smith. Sorry. Here it is: <br /><br />I agree w/the last comment. The rig count is staying in place because there are a number of wells to finish up before winter and there are a lot of wells drilled that need to be completed (and already have a "sunk" investment that needs to be covered w/production. So, I wouldn't expect to see a big pull back now in work and if it happens, it will be in late winter Feb/Mar time frame when there are no more permits and all confidential/drl statused wells are now completed. Hopefully by then the price if oil will be upl Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-67832640099228614152014-10-13T21:40:23.020-05:002014-10-13T21:40:23.020-05:00Good lord. Common sense (I know) would indicate t...Good lord. Common sense (I know) would indicate that if the amount of (anything) that a company could produce is constrained by regulation then less would be produced. Are you people stupid?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-32361677441403846112014-10-13T21:34:50.172-05:002014-10-13T21:34:50.172-05:00There are so many variables. Just two examples:
1...There are so many variables. Just two examples:<br /><br />1. They can drill where the natural gas processing gathering systems and processing plants are in place.<br /><br />2. They are now into pad drilling. The number of wells waiting to be fracked has increased significantly over the past three months. It will be interesting to see the number of wells waiting to be fracked in the next Director's Cut. The cost of drilling is coming way down; fracking is the big cost. Remember the CLR Atlanta pad: about 14 months from the first spud to the 14th well being fracked and completed. Those 14 wells weren't flaring or producing for a almost a year and a half. <br /><br />So there are a lot more variables than the number of rigs. For me, in the Bakken, it comes down to this: a) pad drilling has changed everything; and, b) location, location, location.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-65081388113651631522014-10-13T21:02:12.175-05:002014-10-13T21:02:12.175-05:00I keep coming back to the rig count. If they keep...I keep coming back to the rig count. If they keep stable at 190, I don't see how either flaring or prices could be holding back the boom. Maybe there is something I'm not getting. My simple thought is if either one was an issue than they would stop the drilling. The only reason they would continue might be pre-purchased contracts? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-48997786996722698642014-10-13T18:37:28.841-05:002014-10-13T18:37:28.841-05:00... even malaria can be transmitted by a single mo...... even malaria can be transmitted by a single mosquito. And the malaria parasite is a whole lot bigger than a single Ebola virus. Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-68122163738639016352014-10-13T18:31:13.659-05:002014-10-13T18:31:13.659-05:00Wow, if Target cannot find enough new hires in Far...Wow, if Target cannot find enough new hires in Fargo this speaks volumes about the challenges a company that requires 500 employees will have in North Dakota. Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-77141182727499434952014-10-13T18:23:07.454-05:002014-10-13T18:23:07.454-05:00one of the dumbest things - outside of gov't m...one of the dumbest things - outside of gov't mouths - I have ever heard....that's a big duhAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-78148912742805442952014-10-13T18:21:21.084-05:002014-10-13T18:21:21.084-05:00Land around Fargo and Red River Valley too expensi...Land around Fargo and Red River Valley too expensive for the large plant, and too much competition from other highly skilled industries. Target can't even find new hires (which is probably true for most of the state). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com