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Monday, October 12, 2026

Tuesday -- October 12, 2026

Locator: 51933B. 

WTI: $92.52.

New wells reporting:

  • Wednesday, October 14, 2026: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 530 for the year, 
    • 42562, conf, XTO, GBU Sophia 44X-103E-N
    • 42226, conf, Whiting, Paulson 5104 44-13 3B, 
    • 41766, conf, Oasis, Davidson 5795 31-33 4B, 
  • Tuesday, October 13, 2026: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 527 for the year, 
    • 42561, conf, XTO, GBU Sophia 44X-10A-N, 
    • 42231, conf, Whiting, Cliffside Federal 5103 41-7 3B, 
    • 41765, conf, Oasis, Davidson 5795 31-33 3B, 
    • 41764, conf, Oasis, Davidson 5795 31-33 2B, 
    • 36548, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, 
    • 34479, conf, Whiting, Moen 41-2-5H, 
    • 33509, conf, Whiting, Vance 44-9THF, 
    • 32932, conf, Whiting, Koala 31-2H
    • 32075, conf, Whiting, Koala 14-32HU, 
    • 24197, conf, Whiting, P Evans 154-99-2-24-18-1H, 

RBN Energy: Cenovus/Athabasca deal extends trend in Canada's booming oil sands. Link here. Archived.

Over the past 10-plus years, there’s been an extraordinary consolidation among producers in Alberta’s booming oil sands region, most of it tied to building inventory, increasing efficiency and maximizing free cash flow. Now, with Cenovus Energy’s planned multibillion-dollar acquisition of Athabasca Oil Corp., more than 90% of oil sands production — 93% to be exact — will be owned by only five companies: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNRL), Suncor Energy, Cenovus, Imperial Oil, and ConocoPhillips. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the recently announced deal and ask whether the golden era of M&A up north is finally petering out.

Over the past few years, we’ve blogged frequently about the Pac Man-like phenomenon of extra-large North American oil and gas producers gobbling up large competitors and becoming ever-bigger in the process. This has been especially true in the Permian Basin, the U.S.’s premier hydrocarbon play — a classic example being Pioneer Natural Resources’ $7.6 billion acquisition of Parsley Energy and $6.4 billion purchase of DoublePoint Energy (both in 2021), which were followed by ExxonMobil’s record-breaking $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer itself three years later. Other Permian producers have opted for a “ground game” — that is, foregoing splashy, big-dollar deals in favor of dozens, or even hundreds, of smaller transactions to gain heft nibble by nibble instead of gulp by gulp. (Permian Resources is a case in point; it reportedly added 30,000 net acres last year through about 700 transactions!)

Up in the Alberta oil sands, the consolidation among E&Ps we’ve all witnessed since the mid-2010s results from a combination of small, medium and large transactions — the last of these exemplified by Cenovus Energy’s October 5 announcement that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Athabasca Oil via a cash-and-stock deal valued at CAD$5.7 billion, or USD$4 billion.

The Big Picture

Before we get to the details of that transaction, though, let’s take a big-picture look at Alberta oil sands consolidation since 2015. Back then, when oil sands bitumen production from mining and thermal projects averaged less than 2.3 MMb/d, 30 producers held a working interest in one or more oil sands production areas, and the Top 5 — at that time (in order), Suncor, CNRL, Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips and Shell — accounted for only 68% of production. Since then, through scores of transactions, more than 20 companies have exited the oil sands (see Figure 1 below) and five new players have joined the fray.

Four New Permits -- Columbus Day -- October 12, 2026

Locator: 51932B.

On Cramer just now: Cramer prefers LNG over VG.  

North Dakota state offices remain open on Columbus Day. 

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $93.74.

Active rigs: 36. That's a nice jump.

Four new permits, #43398 - #43401, inclusive --

  • Operator: Phoenix Operating
  • Field: Ranch Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: 
    • Phoenix Operating has permits for four Shiv wells, SESW 12-146-99, 
      • to be sited 333 FSL and 2255 / 2345 FWL.

META: It's Not Too Late -- October 12, 2026

Locator: 51932META.

META has gotten a lot of press today. But it's not too late.

META has been essentially flat for the past full 52 weeks at least compared to most of the rest.

********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.
  • Longer version here.
  • TSMC Expected To Post Sixth Consecutive Quarter Of Record Net Profit -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51931TSMC.


     TSMC's CAPEX in US dollars for calendar year 2026:

    Reminder: need to confirm but I recall that Apple's operating cash flow is $54 billion; Apple's CAPEX is $2 billion. Compare that with TSMC above.

    Market caps and P/Es:

    • TSMC: $2 trillion / 32;
    • AAPL: $5 trillion / 39.

    ********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.
  • Longer version here.
  • TSMC In Texas -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51930TSMC.

    See also, AI in Texas. 

    Samsung's Operations In Texas -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51929SAMSUNG. 

    See also, AI in Texas.  

    Samsung's older, existing fab facilities in Austin, Texas. 

    Samsung's new, mega-campus in Taylor, Texas. 

    ONEOK's Denver Expansion Opens Door To Further Growth To The West -- RBN Energy -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51928ONEOK. 

    Reposting.

    RBN Energy: ONEOK's Denver expansion opens door to further growth to the west. Link here. Archived.

    ONEOK’s recently completed expansion of its Greater Denver refined products pipeline does more than just add 35 Mb/d of capacity to ship jet fuel to Denver International Airport. The midstream giant has larger ambitions for the 230-mile line that originates in Scott City, KS, as it also links Denver to Midcontinent and Gulf Coast supplies and could eventually carry up to 200 Mb/d of refined products. The project sits at the intersection of two increasingly important trends: Large, growing airports are becoming important anchors for new fuel infrastructure, while pipeline developers are looking for ways to push more barrels west into growing (and potentially tighter) markets in the Rockies and beyond. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how ONEOK’s Denver project fits into both trends.

    First, some background: In July 2024, ONEOK announced its $480 million Denver Expansion project (green-striped line in Figure 1 below). The project extended the company's existing El Dorado-Denver Pipeline, part of its Midcontinent-to-Denver refined products system, from Scott City, KS, to Denver. It used 10- and 16-inch pipeline segments and added pump stations. Randy Lentz, ONEOK’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, said in the company’s Q2 2026 earnings call that it adds capacity in “one of the fastest-growing markets in our footprint and provides a new direct jet fuel connection to Denver International Airport.” The pipeline, which was completed in August and is fully contracted under long-term agreements, is designed with future growth opportunities in mind and can transport a variety of refined products — including jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and renewable fuels — to the Denver airport, which has an existing connection to ONEOK’s nearby Aurora fuel terminal. With the completion of the Denver Expansion project, ONEOK has strengthened a critical fuel corridor and expanded capacity to meet the Denver region's growing energy needs, the company said.

     

    WTI Moving Higher -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51927WTI. 

    WTI: up almost 2%; up $1.79; trading at $93.64. 

    Meta surging.

    Apple moving nicely.

    CVX, not unexpectedly, moving higher.

    BRKB actually moving quite nicely.  

    ********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.
  • Longer version here.
  • US Military In Europe -- USAF Led -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51926USAF. 

    Hasn't this position -- Commander, US European Command, historically "belonged" to the US Army?

    Chart Of The Day: AAPL (Apple) Was As High As $342 / Share -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51925AAPL.

    Tag: Apple. 

    We probably won't hear Dan Nathan mention this.  

    2Q26: $2.4 billion vs operating cash flow of $54 billion. 


     

    ********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Nothing on this site should be seen as recommendations for the general public. On the other hand, I have no problem if members of my extended family "see" recommendations I might be making - but only members of my extended family, limited to my children and my grandchildren.
  • Longer version here.
  • The Rich Are Getting Richer -- Much Richer -- Dog Bites Man -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51924WEALTH.

    Later

    5:38 p.m. CT: CNBC adds another twist to this story. Link here. Baby boomers / seniors / those over 75 years of age feel confident about their financial status and are moving investment money into checking accounts. That may be one of the reason it appears "consumers" are "saving the economy." 

    Original Post 

    There are so many story lines here but the first story line I would follow: the intergenerational transfer of wealth story. Ask these questions:

    • why does this graph look the way it does?
    • who is going to inherit this money (demographics)?
    • what should you do if you are an investor?

     ******************************************

    Previously Posted, September 30, 2026, link here:

    Locator: 51836WEALTH.

    The intergenerational wealth transfer has begun. See last statement below.

    The rich have gotten richer since Covid-19 (surprise, surprise); some great graphs; the gap between the rich and the very, very rich is getting wider; link to The WSJ;  

    The ultrawealthy aren’t just pulling away from average Americans. Buoyed by a stock-market boom that has added trillions of dollars to their net worth, the extremely rich are even pulling away from other rich Americans.

    The top 0.1% wealthiest Americans have seen their total wealth more than double since the end of 2019, according to new data from the Federal Reserve. The year the pandemic started was when the ultrawealthy began to pull away from other rich groups, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Fed data.

    In dollar terms, the very richest Americans have gained a total of $14.5 trillion in wealth over that period, with most of that—about $10 trillion—coming from gains in stocks and mutual funds, according to the Fed data, which runs through the end of June.

    The 0.1% now control about $28 trillion, or about 15% of the nation’s total wealth, which amounts to nearly $186 trillion. The average wealth for a household in this group is more than $200 million.

    As of 2022, the minimum for the top 0.1% was $45.8 million, according to the most detailed data available from the Fed. With wealth among the group up by roughly 50% since then, that threshold is much higher now.

    The people who fall into this group aren’t usually traditional salaried workers. Rather, they are much more likely to be the owner of a bunch of car dealerships or an heir living off investment income.

    Economics Nobel Prize -- October 12, 2026

    Locator: 51923ECONOMICS.

    Query:  

    Is the current Fed chair Warsh in line with the Nobel Prize winners in economics in 2026, one economist from Stanford, the other from Columbia University?

    Reply: 

    The above is from the free version of Gemini. The free version of ChatGPT was a bit more wishy-washy but did agree with the "important" part. This is truly embarrassing for someone.