Citadel And Situational Awareness -- Citadel Had It -- The Hedge Fund Situational Awareness Did Not -- Irony, I Guess -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51296CITADEL. 
Pageviews: 70,323,924. 10:43 a.m. CT, Friday, 31 July, 2026.

This was the "first take" by a lot of folks. I didn't know what to think, how to phrase it, how to articulate what Citadel did, but this is what started it all:

If you don't know the story, query Citadel and the billion-dollar Situational Awareness hedge fund started by a 20-something whiz-kid -- and the went bust:

I believe that was from earlier this morning.

But here's a reply that makes sense of all this:

Ya gotta love it.

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The Book Page 

Tonight, a recent purchase from "Friends of the Library," Portland, OR, three new books for less than $15 --

• Metazoa: Animal Life and The Birth of the Mind, Peter Godfrey-Smith, c. 2020. $4.00 (original: $28.00).

First four pages and I'm hooked. 

It's an origin of life book. If not -- I haven't read enough to know for sure -- it's a book what will immediately have you start pondering some very deep questions. particularly, just how / why is "life" different than "non-life." The ability to replicate is obvious but the difference between "life" and "non-life" is so much different. Let's say a rock could replicate itself -- but so what? There's still so much more. 

Anyway, it's going to be a fascinating book. 

Are sponges plant or animal? And how was it conclusively proven? 

  

The Oil Bet -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51295OIL 
Pageviews: 70,059,425. 8:40 p.m. CT, Thursday, 30 July, 2026.

Rambling thought: GDP missed analysts' estimates. Link here. But the headline was worse than the story. Estimate: 1.8%. Actual, 1.5%. But it must concern the Fed about raising rates and killing the economy completely when the problem is something the Fed cannot control:

Thursday’s gross domestic product report included positive signs on other fronts. Consumers increased their spending, shrugging off a surge in gas prices fueled by the conflict with Iran. Business investment remained strong as companies kept investing in IT equipment and software for the AI build-out.

WTI tonight dropped to under $83. The actual number is irrelevant -- don't take that out of context -- it's the direction of movement that's important. It's very possible that CVX will trade lower tomorrow. I have no idea what it might mean that WTI is trending down right now, albeit not by much. 

Others:

• PSX: today up strong, futures green, albeit not by much.
• COP: today up 1%; futures green tomorrow at 0.6%.
• XOM: up today but inconsequential; futures, much better tomorrow.
• TTE: flat.
• OXY: negative today.
• DVN: negative / flat.

The oil story simply makes no sense. 

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Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.

Longer version here.  

Tech -- Three Stocks -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51294TECH. 
Pageviews: 70,047,037. 8:40 p.m. CT, Thursday, 30 July, 2026.

Amazon -- incredible! Wow, when you scroll through x and the other articles on Amazon / AMZN -- the superlatives blow you away.  

Micron -- amazing! Tim Cook said Apple is "evaluating all options," as the DRAM market remains concentrated among just MU, SKHY and Samsung.

Apple -- best July quarter ever! Jim Cramer: Apple's issues are all memory and currency ... sticking with it. Loved that Amazon call. Shay: Michael Burry is concerned. Very concerned.

These are very, very interesting times. For an investor with a 30-year horizon, it's hard to beat Apple. Amazon similarly, but doesn't return cash to investors, as far as I can tell. Micron? Is this just a short-term event? Five years or less? No clue.  

So, a guessing game. From CNBC, after the close today, a semiconductor company, and the narrative for some is better than the numbers::

Amazon: 

Shay is incredibly bullish on Amazon. Link here. 

And, then there's Apple. Nothing to add.

Anticipation: lots of hours until the market opens Friday morning, but right now --

*********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.

Longer version here.  

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APPLE: AppEconomy

It's almost no good looking at history any more. It's all about the future and memory. Amazing how this seems to have blindsided everyone.

More on Amazon: link here. 

Five New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51293B. 
Pageviews: 69,978,218. 7:00 p.m. CT, Thursday, 30 July, 2026.

Mideast: no meaningful updates at x so far today.

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July 30, 2026 

WTI: $84.06.

Active rigs: 27.

Five new permits, #43171 - #43175 --

• Operators: Murfin Drilling (3); BR (2);
• Fields: Zenith (Stark County); Jim Creek (Dunn County);
• Comments:
• Murfin Drilling has permits for three Wagner wells, lot 4, section 3-139-98, 
• to be sited 505 FNL and 280 / 340 FWL;
• BR has permits for two Kelly wells, NENW 11-145-96, 
• to be sited 390 / 391 FNL and 1590 / 1622 FWL. 

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 41482, 4,067, Grayson Mill, Barbara 31-30F 7H, McKenzie County;
• 42179, 1,608, BR, Abersom 1-12UTFH-LW, McKenzie County;
• 42180, 1,555, BR, Abercrombie 1-12MBH, McKenzie County; 

Apple Earnings -- EPS And Revenue Beat -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51292AAPL.

 MacRumors Reports

Link here. Dan Nathan over at CNBC will emphasize all the negatives.

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First Report 

Both EPS and revenue were "beats."  EPS beat by 7%.

Oh-oh, after hours at 3:30 p.m., AAPL falling again. After hours, it appears to have fallen at least 8%.

 

Tim Cook's last earnings call. It's been quite a run.  

This Has To Be Incredibly Embarrassing -- Screenshots Taken Within 30 Seconds Of Each Other -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51291MARKET.
Pageviews: 69,808,101. 2:30 p.m. CT. July 30, 2026.

BRKB: I've waffled on this ticker for years, and always made excuses, but at some point ....

The market: 

As discussed before, BRKB has simply become, for younger investors and traders, a place to park cash for a few days or so. 

Thursday -- July 20, 2026

Locator: 51290MARKET.
Pageviews: 69,802,320. 10:18 a.m. July 30, 2026.

Memo to self: link here. The original written text of The Maltese Falcon by Dashiell Hammett is in the public domain in the United States. The 1929 magazine serialization and the 1930 book version entered the public domain on January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026, respectively. Duke University, public domain day, 2026. Dashiell Hammett, wiki. Copyright law: 50, 75. 90 years. The more times I watch The Maltese Falcon the more I enjoy it. Well cast (perfectly cast?). 

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Of Interest 

 

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Back to the Here and Now

WTI: $84.11. 

Shell: 

Mid-day:

Poor timing? Leopold is broke, forced to sell his mother's house to cover margin. Link here.

Shay: single buyer of Situational Awareness's entire NBIS position after manager of Situational Awareness was forced to liquidate it this week. Link here. In the past year NBIS has made 270% and is up $43 today, up almost 30% today, trading at $191. One year ago it was trading for $51. Go figure.

AMD: up by more than 12% in early morning trading. Link here.

*********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.

Longer version here.  

The Market -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51290MARKET.
Pageviews: 69,798,729. 9:30 a.m. July 30, 2026.

 

Apple's Earnings -- Report Tonight -- 00:03 A.M. CT -- July 30, 2026

Locator: 51289B.
Pageviews: 69,787,648. 0016 a.m. July 30, 2026.

 

AAPL: shows another gain prior to earnings release. If number is anything less than what analysts are whispering, AAPL will plummet.  

Chart of the day:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $84.99.

New wells reporting:

• Saturday, August 1, 2026: 1 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 395 for the year,
• 42105, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S611HF, 
• Friday, July 31, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 394 for the year, 
• None.
• Thursday, July 30, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 394 for the year, 
• None. 

RBN Energy: variations in crude oil quality make on-spec delivery critical for global refiners. Link here. Archived.

Crude oil — often mistakenly described as a single, standardized commodity — is anything but uniform. Every stream has its own chemical fingerprint, including differences in density, sulfur content and a host of other qualities. Those variations can have real consequences for refiners, traders and the folks who move the stuff around. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll dig into why crude quality matters and how it can make a real difference to the bottom line.

Let’s start with the basics. Crude quality is often measured by two main traits: density and sulfur content. Density is measured using API gravity, indicated in degrees (°). A higher API number means lighter crude, while a lower API number indicates the opposite. In general, crude oils above about 35° API are considered light (blue-shaded rows in Figure 1 below); those between roughly 25° and 35° API fall into the medium category (pink-shaded rows); and anything lower is heavy (green-shaded rows).

Iran Air Strikes -- Hints That US Is Now Hitting Refineries -- July 29, 2026

Locator: 51288IRAN.
Pageviews: 69,787,315, 00:03 a.m. CT, July 29, 2026.

Previously posted, 

Iran strikes: resume again, by US and Saudi Arabia, 8:00 p.m. ET tonight. Data continues to suggest that his has been a less-than-half-hearted effort by US allies other than Israel. Either folks in Washington, DC, have not read or not following the writings of Sun Tzu, The Art of War.  From today's WSJ, how many times have we heard this? Is the administration admitting that it purposely failed to take out Iran's missile capability -- the one that killed American soldiers last week?

Now, as Trump moves to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go. He could greenlight Cooper’s option of 10 to 14 days of intensive airstrikes intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability despite warnings that the U.S. is running low on air-defensive munitions. Or, he could opt for a more limited military strike in the hopes diplomacy could be pursued. 

New: "... afraid and angry ... airstrikes have worn on her nerves."