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Sunday, July 26, 2026

Tech Update With Emphasis On Breaking News Tonight -- Will Be Big Story This Week -- July 26, 2026

Locator: 51271TECH.

Query: comparing Nvidia's guaranteeing $250 billion for that huge data center in Ohio.

How does that $250 billion compare to what the Small Business Administration in Washington, DC, loaned or guaranteed in calendar year 2025? Remember: this is "simply" a guarantee that Nvidia will back the loan; Nvidia is hoping that no money actually "leaves the building."

Reply: 

Memo for record: blog page views --

  • went over 66 million page views on July 16, 2026; about two weeks ago --
  • went over 67 million page views on July July 24, 2026, eight days later -- 
  • should go over 68 million page views in a week or so.

 

Updates

Later, 11:11 a.m.: CNBC mades it much clear about circular financing. Nvidia is not writing a check for the $250 billion "backstop." Nvidia is simply guaranteeing to those wanting to load money to OpenAI to fund the huge data center. This is like the VA guaranteeing loans of first home-buying by active-duty military and veterans. 

Monday, July 27, 2026: I said this would be a big story this week on CNBC. Link here. [I was wrong: this story was mentioned in Cramer's first hour but only in passing; it was a "yada, yada" story, and then, of course, the old argument, "circular financing."]

Original Post 

I'm really not interesting in posting all that's going on here, but it's a huge story and it's going to get a lot of press this week. I will post some early links and come back to it later, if it seems worthwhile.

First, go back to an earlier blog that lays the groundwork for a lot of background. The blog is here. It's a good starting point. Think PJM.

Now, the new links:

Evan, on x: link here.  

The WSJ on x: link here. 

The WSJ, direct: link here.

From the linked article:

Nvidia is in talks to provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for OpenAI as part of a massive data-center project, one of the most ambitious financial transactions yet in America’s artificial-intelligence boom.

The guarantees from Nvidia would help the ChatGPT maker lease a 10-gigawatt project that SoftBank’senergy subsidiary is developing in southern Ohio. 
In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, including the chips that would go inside the data centers. It would be the largest data-center project announced to date. 
The power for the project is controlled by the U.S. government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is involved in deciding who will get the power.

Nvidia’s backing would allow the data-center developer, which is owned by Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son’s investment firm SoftBank, to raise debt at more favorable terms than it could if OpenAI had no financial backer, since OpenAI has no investment-grade credit rating as an unprofitable private company. 
The AI company has been in advanced talks to lease the site for several weeks, people familiar with the matter said.

CNBC will spend a lot of time talking about the financing which they will refer to "circular financing."  

Shay, on x: link here. Does not relate to this new story directly but Shay provides ten (10) ways to invest in the AI data center buildout. However, the graph at this link definitely relates to this story. Look at PJM. PJM is the yellow/orange bar and exceeds "other." ERCOT grows but not excessively. MISO unremarkable. PJM: Ohio to Virginia. 


Shay on x: link here. Again does not relate to this new story, but Shay provides the top fifteen (15) performers this year.

LDCs are tracked here: link here. 

Oh, by the way, where is this new data center going to be built. Ohio, for sure. After that it's a bit murky, but appears to be Portsmouth (again). See top link.  

As long as we're doing links on AI, let's add one more WSJ article that's being reported tonight. Link here at x or go direct to TWSJ: link here.

"You can howl at the wind, but AI is here to stay." 

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Wow -- It Really Is A Manic Monday -- Monday, July 27, 2026

Locator: 51270B.

AAPL: with a new all-time high -- 

Now: "Maybe the markets are telling us something." -- David Farber on Cramer's first hour. 

08:30 at the open, Monday, July 27, 2026: war paused (ran out of bullets); biggest earnings week of the year.

11:40 p.m. ET Sunday night, futures. Mideast War on "pause." 

New large data center in Ohio; this will be a big story this week on CNBC. Link here. [I was wrong: this story was mentioned in Cramer's first hour but only in passing; it was a "yada, yada" story, and then, of course, the old argument, "circular financing."

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $84.57 (down 5.31%; down $4.74). That was last night. At the open, Monday, July 27, 2026 -- $83.84. 

New wells reporting:  

  • Tuesday, July 28, 2026: 41 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 394 for the year, 
    • 41382, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 3B,
    • 41381, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 2B,
  • Monday, July 27, 2026: 39 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 392 for the year, 
    •  42077, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, K&L Hegstad North W 158-92-3-27-MBHX,
    • 41538, conf, Devon Energy, Stallion 33-28 6H, 
  • Sunday, July 26, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 390 for the year, 
    • None.
  • Saturday, July 25, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 390 for the year,   
    • None.

RBN Energy: global turmoil spikes energy markets, but sharply lower crude oil prices, production could be just ahead. Link here. Archived. 

Geopolitical developments over the last several months have resulted in perhaps the most chaotic and unstable energy market in the last 50 years, rivaled only by the OPEC oil embargoes of the 1970s, the global financial crisis in 2009 and the COVID lockdown years of the early 2020s. The disruptions have driven crude oil prices and production higher in the short term, but there’s a potential long-term shift just ahead. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the changes on the horizon could lead to sharply lower global crude oil prices and a rollback in U.S. production, two forecasts at the heart of our newly available Future of Fuels report.

It’s been a year of dramatic change, starting with the U.S. removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January (just before our previous report was published). Things have only accelerated since then, highlighted by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran that began on the last day of February. While the damage to energy facilities across the Middle East has been significant, the largest impact by far has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, mostly stopping the flow of one-fifth of global crude oil and millions of barrels of refined products, while also impacting the LNG market and a number of other commodities. The on-again, off-again talks to find a lasting resolution to the conflict, along with the most  recent escalation by the Houthis threatening tanker movements through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have only added to the global uncertainty.

In addition to the events in the Middle East, the Russia/Ukraine war continues to provide additional stress to markets, especially the rapidly accelerating damage Ukraine has inflicted on Russian refineries, resulting in throughputs hitting decades-long lows and the loss of well over 2 MMb/d (and growing) of refined products. Chinese responses to these events and a variety of other global developments also continue to add uncertainties. Less immediately impactful — but maybe the most significant in the long term — was the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from OPEC in May, which we expect to have many knock-on effects in the market.

As discussed many times in the RBN blogosphere this year, the changes and unrest noted above have driven prices higher for crude oil and refined products, leading to record-high U.S. crude oil production, surging crude exports and refining margins, and rig counts that are now well above year-ago levels. It’s a rosy picture for producers, and we expect pricing and production will continue to rise in the short term. But major market headwinds appear on the way; the question is how soon they arrive. 

Here’s where things stand today and why we could be headed for an era of crude oil oversupply:

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Anticipation -- July 26, 2026

Locator: 51269AI.

Mideast: sweet spot right now. 

Active military action paused but the blockade remains. Sweet spot: if the US Congress directs the US Navy to depart the Mideast, Israel will keep close watch over Iran and their proxies: Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah. 

Calgary Stampede: Calgary, Alberta, for the next nine days.  

Anticipation: for those folks who have money in cash, or as they call it, "dry powder." 

By the time those with "dry powder" get into the market tomorrow morning, things may have already surged tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, I'm fully invested, with cash parked in ETFs: IHE, SCHB, SCHS, SCHG. Memo to self: review success of "market timing."

Reminder: late last week Jim Cramer, Jamie Dimon, and Warren Buffett were unanimous. This is not the time to be buying equities. Okay. Posted earlier.  My hunch: if futures how throughtout tomorrow, Jim Cramer will be the first to change his advice. 

AAPL: if futures hold, I will be really, really interested in AAPL tomorrow. And Micron.

  • Dow futures: +273.
  • S&P futures: +46
  • NASDAQ futures: +325% 

WTI: dropping below $85 -- dropped almost 5% over the weekend; dropped over $4.00 / gallon.

Investing this week: these are the three data points I'm watching closely this week --

  • whether the Fed raises rates;    
  • earnings -- busiest week of the earnings season; and, 
  • WTI.

Reading the market, link here: if I'm reading this newsletter from the Senior Finance Analyst at Yahoo!Finance, were on the same page -- if investors are joining traders in the AI sell-off, the investors are misreading the market. They should be buying, not selling. 


 

*********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.  

    • at

    High Wealth Taxpayers -- According To IRS -- Are MOVING FROM California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Illinos And Moving TO Five Largest Cities In Texas -- July 26, 2026

    Locator: 51268TEXASWEALTH.

    Query: 

    Most recent data. With so much migration of high income earners moving from Califorinia to Texas, how much is it estimated that California is interested in lost state income tax? 

    Reply:  


    I think this is going to be a snowball effect. The rich are going to discover they can have a second home in California, Oregon, or Washington state. 

    This is really quite a story. Not unexpected but IRS is noting huge numbers, and the numbers will likely be better going forward.  

    So many articles in the mainstream press suggest it is Florida that is gaining the most from high-income individuals moving to other states but in fact it's Texas as reported by the US: 


    Can you imagine this? State income tax for high earners?     In California, earning $1 million could cause you to pay as much as $130,000 per year to the state, and, of course, a much higher rate at the federal level.


    And New Yorkers? The state where would it be even worse if one had a pied-à-terre? 

    Being reported now by the IRS: 

    According to the latest Tax Foundation analysis of IRS migration data, California, New York, and Illinois are losing the most overall wealth and taxpayers to high-growth states like Texas. 

    Link here, the Tax Foundation. This is being reported by "Tax Foundation.Org":


    The Tax Foundation. org is naming these five cities, all in the state of Texas: Dalla, Ft Worth; Houston, Austin, and San Antonio.

    From what states billionaires and millionaires moving to Texas: New York, California, and Illinois.

    The latest migration data by state is reported here by the IRS, link here. Absolutely amazing.

    According to IRS data, these are the five states losing wealth: California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. And where are they moving to? Texas (the five cities as noted above) and followed by Florida.

    at

    Setting Up A Chatbot For Vocal Only Use While Driving -- July 26, 2026.

    Locator: 51267CHATBOT.

    Query: how does one use a chatbot audio only while driving? 

    Reply: 


     How this started: link here.

    at

    Reposting: Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 25, 2026 -- Reposted July 26, 2026

    Locator: 51266B.

    Sports today: 

    • This afternoon: the remote will be busy today, back and forth between the two
      • PGA, 3M Open: the best professional sports has today.
        • a newcomer beats Scottie Scheffler 
      • NASCAR: 1:00 p.m. CT, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Brickyard 400
    • This evening: NBC making "Sunday Night Baseball" like "Sunday Night Football"
    PGA today: Jackson Koivun is the one to watch. Koivun, just out of college, Auburn, is 21 years old and six strokes ahead of Scottie Scheffler in the early holes. A birdie on the opening hole, final round, no stoppage. 

    Mideast this week: looking for a week of diplomacy; WTI down. 

    Movie last night: Under Seige. Because we were not doing movies in 1992, we missed this one. Released on October 9, 1992, the action film Under Siege was a major commercial and critical success, grossing over $156.6 million globally and earning two Academy Award nominations. For me, this was a real sleeper. Previous night? Re-watching for the zillionth time, the all-time Christmas favorite, Die Hard. Great action, of course, great twists (okay, just one), and two great actors. 

     ***********************************
    Back to the Bakken

    The wells:

    • 42089, conf, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone 32-29-20 3H, Skabo, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262169912185
    4-20262308010179
    3-2026160930
    2-202688480
    • 42088, conf, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone 32-29 2H, Skabo, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261897712190
    4-2026201799620
    3-2026115790
    2-202668290
    • 42087, conf, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone 32-29-20 1H, Skabo, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261928311941
    4-20262381511073
    3-2026213110
    2-202679410
    • 42078, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, K&L Hegstad South W 158-92-10-22-1MBHX, Cottonwood, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261790911528
    4-20261779713039
    3-20262106013180
    2-2026173168615
    • 41275, conf, Oasis, Stepanek 5201 13-18 2B, Elk, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-202696468539
    4-20262176118085
    3-20262156617075
    2-20261913311608
    • 42108, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S617HF, Frazier, npd,
    • 42020, conf, Murfin Drilling, LC Rambousek 1-10H, St Anthony,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-202636862148
    4-202662113502
    3-202644332325
    2-2026106977367
    • 41435, conf, Whiting, Jefferson Federal 5003 42-14 5B, Foreman Butte, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262272417662
    4-20262543917646
    3-20262163817065
    2-20262039113859
    • 42107, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S515HF, Frazier, npd,
    • 42106, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S513HF, Frazier, npd, 
    • 41698, conf, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-8, Truax, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261497545862
    4-20262010154537
    3-20262318848417
    2-20262374846334
    • 41440, conf, Whiting, Jefferson Federal 5003 42-14 10BX, Foreman Butte,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262255917446
    4-20262440918257
    3-20262047115714
    2-20262039914162
    • 42105, conf, Formentera Operations, Bull Mountain-31-18-DIV S611HF,  Frazier, npd, 
    • 41382, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 3B, Squires,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262524219809
    4-20262437421239
    3-20261991315907
    2-20262089815341
    1-20262201993
    • 41381, conf, Oasis, Cyclone 5502 11-17 2B, Squires, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20262309219014
    4-20262169517192
    3-20261795414299
    2-20261955514290
    1-20262050931
    • 42077, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, K&L Hegstad North W 158-92-3-27-MBHX, Cottonwood, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-2026119357209
    4-202690825107
    3-2026112596660
    2-20264324845
    1-202618940
    • 41538, conf, Devon Energy, Stallion 33-28 6H, Ragged Butte, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-20261522123605
    4-20262283827811
    3-20263174735703
    2-20262952028595
    1-20261616216983
    at

    Re-Posting: Somehow, Investing In Tech Makes No Sense -- July 25, 2026 -- Re-Posted July 26, 2026

    Locator: 51265INSANITY.

    Tag: tech valuations Micron Apple MU AAPL 

    Update

    July 26, 2026: How crazy will it get? Link here. This is just over the next three years. Are they any legacy Fortune 500 companies making money like this? 

    Original Post 

     
    There are many, many stories that shortages of key chips are going to last a lot longer than expected (see "Trump in between Micron and Apple") and then these p/e's from the colorful chart below, as examples:

    • TSMC: 19
    • MU: 6

    AMD is interestingly not shown in that colorful chart but from AI, a p/e of 30 to 45, for AMD, 2027, is suggested. That's about where AAPL is right now, and it's best performer among the Mag 7 in the past six months?


    From Shay, link here:  


    Link here (same as above, for Shay), it's a very, very long essay and well worth the read. If that link breaks/disappears, Shay's narrative without the links is here.

    *********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.  
    • at