Locator: 50786AI.
Locator: 50786IRAN.
One.
One of the reasons I quit watching CNBC as of February 28, 2026, was because the talking heads on "Fast Money" were tracking the wrong metrics. It was tedious, frustrating. [On/about May 4, 2026, I started watching CNBC again, now that the war is status quo / stalemate.] [Later, May 12, 2026 -- Susan Stroud over at x found the quote that perhaps says what I was trying to say, from Aristotle:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers."]
Finally, the lightbulb (for me) went on -- see the CNBC interview this morning with Denise Dresser, OpenAI's chief revenue officer. I can't articulate what she said that changed (in my mind) but it's tectonic. Dresser said it but I have not seen other talking heads say it on CNBC. But here it is again:
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers."
Two.
Along that same line, the situation in the Iran-US situation has changed immensely. We're in a long, prolonged "conflict" of some sort, yet to be determined what sort of conflict it is.
The president calls the ceasefire "on life support."
Everything suggests there is an internal disagreement between "State" and "War" with regard to:
- long-term goals (strategic goals, ten to twenty years out); and,
- ultra-short-term goals (one month); and,
- short-term goals (six months -- before elections this autumn); and,
- medium term goals (two years -- before presidential election).
Also likely, an internal disagreement between the president's advisors and Netanyahu.
Red herrings -- these no longer matter -- head fakes -- headlines but they distract journalists from the real stories:
- the closure of the strait;
- enriched uranium;
What convinced me:
- WTI has not yet spiked to $120, much less $200;
- Saudi says it will be able to surpass crude oil exports from previous highs;
- the new export number? 12 million bopd;
- "everybody" is making huge amounts of money on oil due to price; no one is complaining except consumers;
- as China replaces oil with coal where it can, the rest of the world will find the oil it needs which is the oil that China is giving up;
- LNG is a problem for one country: Pakistan
- when Macron says he has no interest in helping to open the strait, it tells me that no one cares
- but it provides an excuse for Hegseth to remain in the region; the US Navy will probably "never" leave the Mideast again, -- except under a sleeping president or incompetent president (of which there are many candidates)
What matters:
- MAGA;
- the Monroe Doctrine;
