The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 03/09/26

Monday, March 9, 2026

March 9, 2026

Locator: 50178B.

Updates

Later, 8:36 p.m. CT: WTI now drops to $86 -- trending to even lower prices. This is amazing how fast these prices have changed.

Original Post

TSA: four-hour long wait times in Houston airport today due to TSA shortage.

DFW has 13 TSA security checkpoints across five terminals;
DFW has an app that shows wait time by TSA security checkpoint;
all terminals are connected by light rail
go to "green" TSA security checkpoints; get through security, and then take light rail to your gate.

WTI: plunges, back below $90 as Trump signals that war may end. [Later: WTI back up to $95 as analysts analyze Trump's comments.

he has a lot of options; especially if a third US a/c carrier is positioned in the Mideast;
will likely address security of the canal now that it's obvious the UN can't do it;

Operation EPIC FURY:

wow, wow, wow -- amazing, if one connects the dots -- and the president's statements -- he is truly playing chess -- remember, Trump is scheduled to visit Xi in China, at the end of the month -- March 31, 2026.

France: will position ten naval ships and an a/c carrier for defensive operations; "mulls" mission in Strait of Hormuz.

UK: remains on the sidelines; lacks any ships that could be deployed to the Gulf in support of the allies;

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $94.77.

Active rigs: 26.

One new permit:

42754, Koda Resources, Amber 3119-4BHS, lot 4, section 31-160-103, Divide County; 435 FSL ad 501 FWL; Grenora oil field; 8-section space -- sections 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 -159-103;

Five permits renewed:

Whiting (4): three Roggebuck permits and one Bartleson permit; all Mountrail in the Sanish oil field.
Enerplus: a Tegu permit, McKenzie County in Antelope oil field.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

40797, 1,287, Slawson, Daredevil Federal 2-2-14H; McKenzie County;
41044, no IP, XTO, HBU Shoshoni Federal 11X-15G, Williams County;
41144, 993, BR, Devils Backbone 5E, McKenzie County;

Update On The Devon Brakken "Discovery Well" -- March 9, 2026

Locator: 50177B.

The Devon energy Brakken 30-31 1-H ("discovery well") has been off line since 2/25, suggesting that the four new Brakken wells were recently fracked. Generally, "discovery" wells are brought back on line quickly if they are going to be put back into production. This suggests the original Brakken well may not be going back into production. The good news: it's still listed as "IA."

See this post for four new Brakken wells soon coming off confidential list.

The well:

19008, 2,804, Devon Energy/Grayson Mill/Equinor/Statoil, Brakken 30-31 1-H, Catwalk, t12/10; cum 314K 1/25; a good well; two-section spacing; stimulated 12/03/2010; 30 stages; 3,484,740 lbs proppant; 69,510 bbls fluid; at the time, a wildcat well; initial production:

BAKKEN	5-2011	16	2740	3084	3978	2464	2464
BAKKEN	4-2011	24	4339	4437	3283	3077	3077
BAKKEN	3-2011	31	8266	8952	7737	6708	6708
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	11103	11723	8761	9657	9657
BAKKEN	1-2011	28	12123	11545	9242	14882	14882
BAKKEN	12-2010	31	29888	28285	22114	49258	49258

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Jiu-Jitsu

Link here.

Apple Going "Ultra" -- March 9, 2026

Locator: 50176APPLE.

Before we get to Apple: Microsoft partners with Anthropic for "Copilot Cowork" in "push for AI agents.

Now, back to Apple.

Ready to rumble: now that Apple has released its ultra-low-priced laptops, the company is now ready to raise the bar on high-end laptops and iPhones.

Headlines from Macrumors.

MacBook Ultra with touchscreen. Link here.
Apple still has more new Macs planned for 2026. Link here.
Apple could launch three new "Ultra" devices this year. Link here.

M4 iPad Air review, link here:

Unless the iPad has been significantly upgraded -- and I don't think it has -- it still doesn't meet my requirements for blogging. But for surfing the net -- there's nothing better than the iPad -- 11-inch.

The M5

Link here.

This is an incredible price:

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M5 MacBook Pro

The movers and shakers in the Dept of War and the entire Federal government are going to be using the M5 MacBook Pro and Anthropic. Just wait.

Link here.

Qualcomm introduced its third-generation Oryon cores to its Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme, bumping up the specifications to an impressive 18-core CPU, resulting in significantly increased single-core and multi-core performance.

Unfortunately, these upgrades might give Windows laptops some bragging rights when compared as individual products, but as soon as you put the M5 Pro and M5 Max into the mix, the story changes immediately.

In the latest single-core and multi-core benchmark comparison, the Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme continues to lag behind its direct competition.

Disappointingly, the M5 Pro and M5 Max are up to 26 percent faster than the Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme, with the latter also losing to the older M4 MaxOn Geekbench 6, the Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme was tested in the upcoming ASUS Zenbook 16, obtaining single-threaded and multi-threaded scores of 4,033 and 23,198, respectively.

These results are far superior to the Snapdragon X Elite, but it’s always important to gauge the competition, or more specifically, the new Apple Silicon range.

For investors, this isn't going to move the AAPL needle, but "this is just the start."

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The Book Page

Today: The News: A User's Manual, Alain de Botton, c. 2014.

A gift from our younger daughter many years ago.

We are addicted to the news, and governed by the news cycle:

0400: check the overnight headlines on Fox News, x
0500: check RBN Energy
0600: check Oilprice; occasionally check pre-market
0800: ten to thirty minutes of Jim Cramer
1700: ten minutes, check the weather on network television

From Botton, p. 11:

Societies become modern, the philosopher Hegel suggested, when news replaces religion as our central source of guidance and our touchstone of authority. In the developed economies, the news now occupies a position of power at least equal to that formerly enjoyed by the faiths.
Dispatches track the canonical hours with uncanny precision: matins have been transubstantiated into the breakfast bulletin, vespers into the evening report.

It is clear, the author needs to write a sequel: Agentic AI: The New Writers.

Gustave Flaubert:

The noblest promise of the news is that it will be able to alleviate ignorance, overcome prejudice and raise the intelligence of individuals and nations.
But from some quarters it has intermittently been accused of a contrary capacity, that of making us completely stupid. One of the most uncompromising versions of this charge was levelled in the mid-nineteenth century by Gustave Flaubert. Flaubert belonged to a generation that had experienced the rise of mass-circulation newspapers at first hand.
Flaubert was appalled by what, in his estimation, these newspapers were doing to the intelligence and curiosity of his countrymen.

Quick: what novel was Flaubert best known for?

And then there's John Hanning Speke (1827 - 1864). Remember him? I didn't think so.

Before our time, the only way to get to Uganda was to travel for two months by sea around the perilous Cape of Good Hope bound for Dar es Salaam, then inland for another few months through bush and desert, with every likelihood that one would never return.
In 1859, on the eve of the US Civil War, John Hanning Speke, the first European ever to enter Uganda and the man who gave Lake Inyansha its new name, Lake Victoria, made it back to Britain and gave a lecture on his travels to an almost hysterical 800-strong crowd in the Royal Geographical Society in Kensington.

And that's just a start.

Israel Has A New Target -- March 9, 2026

Locator: 50175B.

Iran: has a new leader.

Israel: has a new target.

France: to send two warships to the Red Sea. Why?

on that news, the price of oil dropped from $120 to $98

British contribution: begrudgingly offers one base in England; and, Diego Garcia, but with caveats, limitations, warnings, small print, and lots of bluster

KSA (Saudi Arabia): clearly getting ready to join the allies.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $98.80. Overnight went as high as $120, or thereabouts; has dropped back significantly after markets open.

New wells reporting:

Tuesday, March 10, 2026: 10 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 116 for the year,

42086, conf, Scout Energy, TNT 1,

Monday, March 9, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,

None.

Sunday, March 8, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,

None.

Saturday, March 7, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,

41602, conf, BR, Sivertson 6E,
40632, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-155-94-0607H-5,

RBN Energy: for the US, "energy dominance" doesn't mean going it along. Link here. Archived.

A major theme under the second Trump administration has been the concept of “energy dominance,” with a focus on expanded drilling, increased oil and gas production, and an easier path to project permitting and approvals. Despite that shift in approach, the U.S. remains critically intertwined with the global market as a source of supply and demand for everything from crude oil and feedstocks to gasoline and renewable fuels. In today’s RBN blog, we explain why the goal of “energy dominance” doesn’t mean going it alone.
For a prime example of the U.S.’s advantageous position, let’s start with the refining sector. The U.S. boasts the world’s second-largest refining complex (after China) but has the most complex/dynamic facilities and significant edges over other developed economies in access to crude oil and natural gas. And while domestic demand may be stagnating, the U.S. remains a global leader in refined product exports, in large part due to the structural advantages noted above, but also, and probably even more importantly, due to the free-market environment in which the industry is allowed to operate.

The other major refining markets face their own set of headwinds. While China surpassed the U.S. to become the largest global refiner by capacity in 2023, it remains focused on meeting domestic, not export demand. Refined product growth there is slowing, due in large part to the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and a greater focus on petrochemical production, along with a deteriorating demographic environment. Refinery capacity additions are also slowing in the Middle East, where refiners face high capital costs and significant geopolitical risks — highlighted by the ongoing military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, and retaliatory strikes by Iran against some of its neighbors — dimming the outlook despite their advantaged crude and natural gas supply. India’s refining sector has seen the fastest growth in recent years, and its private refiners are large, complex and efficient. It has benefited from access to sanctioned Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine, and additional growth in Venezuelan crude production could bring future benefits (more on Venezuela below), but India will remain dependent on imported crude and natural gas, with the potential for additional regulatory issues and higher costs.
We should also note the downbeat outlook for Russian and European refiners. For Russia, continued sanctions and a lack of outside investment (and technology) are causing a “slow bleed” in refinery conditions and capabilities. The longer the war with Ukraine continues, the more significant the impacts are likely to be. We should also note those problems won’t automatically disappear if/when the war ends, and Russian refiners could find themselves with decreased (or no) access to European markets for the long term. The loss of Russian crude oil and natural gas also poses major challenges for European refiners, who are already disadvantaged by higher operating costs, a difficult regulatory environment, declining populations and stagnant economic growth.
The U.S. refining sector has a number of inherent advantages, but a significant part of its success is that it doesn’t operate as an island unto itself. For starters, U.S. refiners import significant volumes of crude and feedstocks — primarily heavy crude/resid and low-cost intermediates, which complex refineries can upgrade very cost effectively. As shown in Figure 1 below, the U.S. has continued to import significant quantities of crude oil (blue line) even as domestic production (green line) has more than doubled over the past 15 years and crude exports (orange line) have steadily moved higher, now averaging about 4 MMb/d.