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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Three New Permits -- February 25, 2026

Locator: 50059B.

WTI: $65.63.

Active rigs: 26. 

Three new permits, #42731 - $42733, inclusive:

  • Operator: Phoenix Operating
  • Field: Little Muddy (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has permits for three DC Gunner wells, lot 3, section 6-158-101; 
      • to be sited 375 FNL and 1951 / 2041 FWL.

Three permits renewed:

  • Hess, three SC-Mari permits, Truax oil field, Williams County (#41625, #41626, and #31632).

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 41038, 4,263, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16F, Williams County;
  • 41039, 131, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16C, Williams County;

Wells of interest:

  • 637 (no typo), 350, Rim Operating, Hofflund, t12/54, cum 408K 12/25; target Madison pool; spacing: unitize, but a short (one section) horizontal, total depth 12,787 feet; 

Activity in the area:

Nvidia Earnings After The Close -- February 25, 2026

Locator: 50058NVDA.

Other related news: Helios (AMD) vs Vera Rubin (NVDA) -- link here --  

See disclaimer for the blog. The following was done quickly on the fly as numbers were being released. There will be typographical and content errors.  

Numbers are out

  • most important numbers:
    • forward p/e multiple: 24 (currently 48)
    • margins: 75% 
    • data center revenue: up 75% 
  • share price action:
    • immediately: shares up 2.2%; now shares up by almost 3%; now shares up by 3.5% after guidance; looks like shares will settle about 3% up;
    • immediately: shares up $5.44; now, shares up $7.37; now, up $9.72; looks like share will settle about $3.00 up;
    • share price after guidance came out: trading $202 after hours; looks like NVDA will settle about $199 tonight.
  • comments by talking heads: 
    • "a decent quarter" -- one talking head 
    • "robust numbers, but the market knows the game of circular financing" -- another CNBC talking head, Guy Adani;
    • as evening went on, talking heads felt that trading was very, very mooted. 
  • the numbers:
    • 75% margins: amazing; 
    • EPS: 1.62 vs 
    • revenue: $68.13 billion vs $66.21 billion
  • P/E: at the close, the p/e was 48. 
  • guidance, next quarter, 1Q27
    • $78 billion vs $72 billion 
    • dividend: 1 cent / quarter -- hasn't been changed since June, 2024 -- seven quarters without a change; previously 0.4 cent (no typo -- less than half a cent / share)

Other chips: riding NVDA's tailcoats; most are up in the after hours. 

AAPL: not riding coat tails -- AAPL down slightly after hours, after huge day during normal hours;

 ******************************
Before Earnings Release

What to expect: the WSJ.  

According to a FactSet consensus:

  • fourth-quarter sales are seen at around $66.1 billion, a roughly two-thirds jump from a year earlier. In November, Nvidia raised its sales guidance for the quarter to $65 billion.
    • revenue in the all-important data center division is expected to surge more than 70%.
    • net income is expected to jump 70% to around $37.5 billion.
  • shares rose over 1% early Wednesday.
  • investors will pay close attention to any comments by Chief Executive Jensen Huang on how companies' artificial-intelligence spending is holding up, amid concerns around overspending.

Overspending? A meme.  

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The Book Page

Van Gogh: The Life, Steve Naifeh and Gregory White Smith, Pulitazer Prize winning authors of Jackson Pollock, c. 2011, Random House. 

  • narrative: 868 pages
  • appendices: 16 pages
  • acknowledgments: 4 pages
  • a note on  sources: 3 pages
  • selected biography: 24 pages
  • index: 32 pages

We're Starting To See Why Biden And The Democrats Refused To Release The Epstein Files -- Clintons Close Friends of Summers? February 25, 2026

Locator: 50057EPSTEIN.

The Clintons:

My hunch has always been that Hillary Clinton was the only politician with enough gravitas to stop any Democratic administration from releasing the Epstein files. Now that Larry Summers has resigned from Harvard over the Epstein files, the US House will be scouring his Epstein history to find "Easter eggs" that will help in their own questioning of the Clintons.  
Hillary Clinton is scheduled for a deposition tomorrow,  February 26, 2026, and Bill Clinton the following day, on February 27, 2026. They agreed to appear to avoid potential contempt of Congress charges. I can't imagine any politician with more gravitas than Larry Summers that would have been closer, on a political level, to Clinton.  

Links will be everywhere.

The New York Times spin.

Were the Clintons and Summers close friends?


 

Berkshire Hathaway -- The Company -- A Dividend-Paying ETF -- February 25, 2026

Locator: 50056BRK.

AI prompt

Investing. Berkshire Hathaway is composed of three parts: 1) wholly owned subsidiaries, like Burlington Northern Railroad; 2) investments in publicly traded companies (equity); and, 3) cash and bonds. As a rough guess, in percentage how much does each sector (subsidiaries, equity, and cash) contribute to the overall value of the company? 

Reply: if you like cash and SCHD -- invest in BRK-B.

 **********************************
Disclaimer 
Briefly

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   
  •  ****************************
    BRK-B vs SCHD
    Year-to-Date
     


    BRK, The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Micron, TSM-Arizona, And All That Jazz -- February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50055BRK.

    On August 9, 2022, President Biden signed the "CHIPS Act." Link here. It appears BRK missed that story.

    TSM: link here.

    BRK-B: mom-and-pop retail investors have to be absolutely livid with regard to their BRKB holdings. I am unable to find one individual stock in my portfolio that has done as badly as BRKB in the a) past full year; and, b) YTD.

    • past full year: down $7.70 / share; down 1.54%;
    • YTD: down $4.72 / share; down almost 1%;
    • today: down another $2.38 / share; down almost half a percent on a day when the overall market is overall green.

    Best example: compare with MDU, which pays 2.8%. 

    Micron: folks have had three years to get to know this run-of-the-mill chip company -- up an astounding 360% over one year. Up another $13 / share today and up $41 / share and 11% over the past month. And, it, too, pays a dividend.

    Note the first arrow (to the left) in the graphic above: January, 2023. On August 9, 2022, President Biden signed the "CHIPS Act." Link here

    AI prompt: investing: Micron (MU) has really surged in the past 18 months. What analyst and when was it that an analyst first noted things were about to change for Micron? 

    Reply:  

    I believe this was my first post on the fourth industrial revolution (AI): link here. It was based on: demand for Nvidia blades to meet the needs of LCDs; and the need for nuclear energy to meet the energy needs for those same LCDs.

    With all the reading Charlie Munger did, and he was active to the end, he died November 28, 2023, BRK apparently completely missed this. As late as 2023, I will adding small positions to my BRK holdings, thinking that BRK would eventually jump in. They never did. 


    And, oh, by the way, I first posted "AI -- the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution" back on December 29, 2023.

    I also remember all the pushback there was when TSMC said they were going to build fabs in the US desert, spurred on by the CHIPS bill. Thank you, Mr Biden.

    First Solar -- Trump's Tariffs On India's Solar Panels -- Wednesday, February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50054SOLAR.

    MU - India: first for MU. India accelerating its domestic chip manufacturing industry. Link here

    First Solar: up 37% for full one year -- but pre-market is down almost 20% -- 

    I asked a chatbot why First Solar (the ticker) is plunging. The reply: because more people are selling than buying.  

    President Trump has just slapped a 126% tariff on India's solar panels exported to the US. Link here

    *****************************
    Lego

    Pre-order. Wow! This thing must be huge. Premium pricing. 1,675 pieces, and selling for $229.

    Wow! I have $200 in loyalty points. This would cost me $29.99.

    **************************
    The Dawn Of The Modern Tie

    Link here


    What is the kipper tie? A very, very wide (4.5 to 5 inches), garish tie popular in the 1960s, maybe early 1970s. 

    Surface Area -- February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50053SAND.

    Weather: DFW, north Texas today -- will have a high of 84°F; breezy which will make biking difficult, especially on the hills on my 10-mile ride.  

    Rounded

    • Saudi Arabia: 830,000 square miles, mostly sand.
    • Mostly not sand:  
      • Permian Basin: 80,000 square miles.
      • Texas: 270,000 square miles.
      • North Slope, Alaska: 100,000 square miles. 
      • Louisiana: 50,000 square miles.
      • Bakken, North Dakota: 10,000 square miles.

    ******************************
    LNG

    This graphic simply blows me away -- see below. 

    Link here

    If you have time to read only one article today on LNG, this is the article. It will only be available to non-subscribers for a few days. I've archived the article but often the graphics are not preserved, unfortunately. 

    LNG facilities

    • operational:
      • Cameron LNG
      • Calcaseieu Pass
      • Sabine Pass LNG
    • planned:
      • Port Arthur LNG
      • Golden Pass LNG
      • CP2 LNG
      • Louisiana LNG


     

    CP2 LNG
    :

    ******************************
    The Book Page

    Some folks were curious about the earlier photo so I rearranged the books so folks could see the titles.

    These are some of the books I'm reading now. Not pictured, includes a bio on Warren Buffett and a book on infectious diseases (plagues). 

    TikTok Update -- Wednesday, February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50052TIKTOK.

    LoserCNBC this a.m. Among the top five losers in the market yesterday, OKE was one of the five. Down 5%. On a dip like this, I would normally buy more OKE but .... see this throwaway post.

    TikTok: much ado about nothing. Link here

    US LNG - This Is Truly Amazing -- February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50051LNG.

    Weather: wow, in the background, CNBC this a.m. -- it's still snowing hard in NYC!

    LNG: link here

    Wednesday, February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50050B.

    Never forget: Hunter Hess. 

    **************************************
    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: $65.86.

    New wells reporting:

    • Friday, February 27, 2026: 57 for the month, 110 for the quarter, 110 for the year,
      • None.
    • Thursday, February 26, 2026: 57 for the month, 110 for the quarter, 110 for the year, 
      • None.
    • Wednesday, February 25, 2026: 57 for the month, 110 for the quarter, 110 for the year,
      • 41672, conf, Phoenix Operating, Gopher 33-34-35 5H
      • 41671, conf, Phoenix Operating, Gopher 33-34-35 4H, 
      • 41670, conf, Phoenix Operating, Gopher 33-34-35 2H, 
      • 41669, conf, Phoenix Operating, Gopher 33-34-35 1H, 
      • 41571, conf, Phoenix Operating, Gopher 33-34-35 3H, 
      • 41419, conf, Hess, BL-Odegaard-156-95-1621H-10, 
      • 41418, conf, Hess, BL-Odegaard-LW-156-95-1621H-1, 
      • 41417, conf, Hess, BL-Kvam-156-95-1720H-3, 
      • 40966, conf, XTO, HBU Sakakawea Federal 13X-35A, 
      • 40965, conf, XTO, HBU Sakakawea Federal 13X-35G, 

    RBN Energy: how Canada became the world's #4 oil producer. Link here. Archived.

    Canadian crude oil production has once again reached new highs and is expected to continue growing. But, in an area where steep price discounts have been a frequent problem in the past, and in a world that is seemingly awash in crude at the moment, what does that mean for Canadian crude producers, and how will all this growing supply get to market? In today’s RBN blog, the first of a series, we discuss the ongoing growth of Canadian crude supply.

    Canadian crude oil and condensate production has nearly doubled since 2010, making Canada the world’s fourth-largest producer, trailing only the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia. In fact, the province of Alberta on its own is the world’s #4 producer. Canadian production saw another year of growth in 2025, with November and December setting new highs at 5.6 MMb/d (total across stacked layers at right end of Figure 1 below). All but 4% of this production (gold layer) came from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), where pipeline capacity constraints and steep price discounts have been a frequent problem for producers over the past couple of decades. 

      

    HALO -- Josh Brown -- CNBC -- February 25, 2026

    Locator: 50049ARCHIVES.

    Note: this is a throwaway post; it is definitely not ready for prime time. Nothing to see here. For the archives. This is for my extended family members interested in investing. It is the fastest way I can get information out to my extended family members.  It is not meant for the general audience. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. See the blog's disclaimer.  

    Investing: the HALO concept, see below, is very, very interesting.  Now that I have my portfolio where I want it, it has just been a matter of tweaking for the past year or so. But now with Josh Brown's HALO concept, I need to look at the portfolio again. 

    About three years ago, I made a huge pivot from energy to tech. At the time I was way overweighted in energy and Apple. I could no longer put new money into either energy or Apple. I did make some adjustments in my overall energy portfolio but no new money into energy (oil). I said I would never buy any more AAPL; I had way too much from a diversification point of view. When AAPL recently plunged to $155 I made a exception and added a few more shares. 

    There was some excitement in railroads a few years ago and I established a new position in UNP. But it hasn't done much. But I would consider it among the HALO options.  

     But two or three years ago, I forget exactly when, but it must have been sometime in 2023 when the term "Mag 7" was introduced. Prior to that it was FANG. Unfortunately I completely missed that opportunity (FANG), but made sure I didn't miss the next group of stocks that suddenly captivated investors' interest (the "Mag 7" group). But now I'm perfectly weighted, as far as I'm concerned, with regard to the overall portfolio. 

    But now, holy mackerel, it's hard to figure out where to go next. I definitely need something in the retail center but that sector has never interested me. But when Walmart self-identified as a tech company (moving to the NASDAQ) that made a big difference. 

    Any new money: AMZN, AVGO, and WMT.

    I'll "park" money in SCHD, SCHG, and SCHB, when I'm at a loss what to do.  

    But HALO gives me something to think about. The only ticker with which I am perplexed: ORCL. Had I done a bit more research, it might have been the one company I might not have initiated a position in the past three years. But, I probably would have. We'll see.

    *************************
    HALO -- Previously Posted 

    Investing: I was just lucky to catch this segment today, link here

    Jargon: HALO. Link here

    Josh Brown's HALO stocks. This list is dynamic and subject to change at any time. Jim Cramer opened his evening program with HALO -- but didn't / hasn't credited Josh Brown with the acronym ("heavy assets, low obsolescence"). 

    Interestingly, Cramer is taking issue with HALO stocks. Cramer couldn't have been more explicit: he doesn't want folks buying into HALO. He wants folks to buy into companies selling things in high demand. 

    Cramer sees the chip shortage as the worst shortage of anything ever. Cramer says Anthropic is living rent-free in his brain which means he can't think of any other HALO stocks (with which he has not bought into). I can think of at least one HALO company: CAT. 

    I think Josh Brown is talking to investors with a multi-year horizon.

    Cramer is talking to traders.  

    Josh Brown's initial HALO list:  

    • BRK, SLB, DE
    • HSY(Hershey), 
    • SCCO, GLW, 
    • TPLIRMFDX, CPCL,
    • AAPL 

     **********************************
    Disclaimer 
    Briefly

    Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.