Locator: 49944GREENAGENDA.
First of all, whatever Denmark does, no matter how successful it will make no difference whatsoever.
Talk about spin! Wow!
A failure by any other name is still a failure.
********************************
Just Ride!
Thursday, February 12, 2026
The Green Agenda -- The Spin Gets Tedious -- February 9, 2026
Anticipation -- February 10, 2026
Locator: 49947MARKET.
RACE:
TSMC: 37% revenue jump; US to provide carve-out on tariffs;
BRK-B, KO, and TSM:
First Ten Minutes Of Jim Cramer -- It Just Sort Of Sneaks Up On You -- February 10, 2026
Locator: 49949ENERGY.
First ten minutes of Jim Cramer: Jim Cramer is "off" this morning -- a well-deserved break. But, wow, it's a lousy show when Jim Cramer is not there. David Faber is absolutely obsessed with the Netflix - Paramount fight over Warner Bros Discovery. Spends ten minutes on every little update. Thousands of other stocks and this one gets extraordinary coverage.
Increasing Risk Colo-Rectal Cancer -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49975CANCER.
This is supposed to be the most health conscious generation and yet colo-rectal cancer is rising in the 20-to-40 year-old demographic. It doesn't make sense and the "usual suspects" as the most likely cause doesn't pass the common sense test. I can't even accept the "obesity" angle.
My hunch: the gastro-intestinal biome, and I might start with sushi.
My hunch: a lot of researchers and arm-chair diagnosticians are bombarding chatbots with their theories and hunches. I certainly did.
Think H. pylori and duodenal ulcers.
*****************************
The Recipe Page
Be sure to spell "shiitake" with two "i's."
Phoenix Operating With Five New Permits -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49974B.
WTI: $62.85.
Active rigs: 26.
Five new permits, #42709 - #42713, inclusive:
- Operator: Phoenix Operating
- Field: Noonan (Divide County)
- Comments:
- Phoenix Operating has permits for five Spackler wells, NWNW 27-162-95,
- to be sited 401 FNL and 416 / 536 FWL.
Flashback: Nixon, Rose Mary Woods, And 18 1/2 Minutes Of Lost Tape -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49973NIXON.
Wow, wow, wow. A first reading of this article takes me back to Richard Nixon, his personal secretary Rose Mary Woods and her admission of accidentally erasing 18 1/2 minutes of a key Watergate tape.
The complaint specifically accused Gabbard of limiting the sharing of the intelligence concerning the conversation for political purposes. Shortly after the intelligence was collected last year, Gabbard met with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles to discuss the matter. The whistleblower complaint alleges that following that meeting, Gabbard worked to limit the sharing of the intelligence, people familiar with the complaint said.
It doesn't take much to connect the dots and imagine the likely conversation between Susie Wiles and Tulsi Gabbard.
But, of course, that would simply be one's imagination.
But it certainly takes me back to Rose Mary Woods and the missing 18 1/2 minutes of conversation.
Wow.
The Book Page -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49972SPANISHFLU.
Locator: 49972KEYNES.
Two books:
- Capitalism and Its Critics, A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI, John Cassidy, c. 2025. Incredibly good book.
- Chapter 15: John Maynard Keynes's Blueprit for Managed Capitalism, p. 256.
- Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed The World, Laura Spinney, c. 2017. Such a great book on so many levels.
I never understood John Maynard Keynes but now I have a bit more insight. Interestingly enough, it's because I just completed Laura Spinney's incredible book on the Spanish flu. We will connect those dots later. Perhaps.
One magazine article, link here (most likely behind a paywall):
"I, Claudius: no one knows exactly how AI systems work. Teams at Anthropic are trying to decode the machine mind," in the current issue of The New Yorker, February 16 & 23, 2026, p. 52, by Gideon Lewis-Kraus -- an 11-page essay with an additional full page graphic depicting a "black box" of sorts.
Anyone thinking they know something about AI needs to read this article.
You have no idea how much I enjoy conversing with chatbots. With regard to John Maynard Keynes and the Spanish flu I asked Google Gemini a question and was very disappointed. Because of that poor response, I then asked ChatGPT which provided a much, much better answer.
I said that to ChatGPT -- and provided a bit of insight with regard to chatbots. Truly amazing. But I digress.
Again, folks who think they know something about AI, need to read the Lewis-Kraus article in The New Yorker.
********************************
The Book
John Maynard Keynes not once mentioned the Spanish flu in his landmark book despite being written during the world's greatest pandemic ever.
Notably, Laura Spinney, despite name-dropping dozens of famous names, never mentions Keynes in her book. Not once. I've read the book twice, I've checked the index, and to confirm, I asked a chatbot -- the chatbot seemed a bit confused but in the end confirmed what I have just writte.
From Chapter 15 of John Cassidy's book on Keynes:
"The more troublous the times, the worse does a laissez-faire system work."
It's a twenty-page chapter but knowing these few data points below pretty much tells me all I need to know to get started:
- the Spanish flu began in March, 1918
- WWI ended November 18, 1918
- the Paris Peace Conference began exactly two months later, January 18, 1919
- John Maynard Keynes was a British representative but left early in protest
- upset how the Allied Powers were determined to financially destroy Germany
- the Spanish flu was over almost exactly two years after it started, also in March 1920
- the US capitalists became ungodly rich off World War I
- selling and financing armaments during the war; and,
- funding and financing the recovery following the war.
In other words, for the western countries, WWI and the Spanish flu would have been similar to fighting a major war in the Mideast at the same time as the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm not sure it could have been done; certainly the outcome would have been different.
You know, I used to think lawyers were "bad" (devious). I'm beginning to think the bankers weren't far behind. And, in some respects, perhaps worse. But again, I digress.
Now, to get started on Chapter 15.
******************************
Anthropic And Decoding Marchine Language
I've already started a dialogue with ChatGPT with regard to this article.
Based on fairly extensive interaction with both ChatGPT and Google Gemini, I think ChatGPT will be a better fit for me as I do through this article.
How Are NASA's Artemis And Apple's AI Alike? They Never Launch -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49971APPLE.
Tag: AAPL.
For those with a 30-year horizon, this is awesome.
****************************************
Apple's AI
From February 11, 2026: how are NASA's Artemis and Apple's AI alike? Neither launch.
Locator: 49966ARTEMIS.
A couple of weeks ago my x feed was filled with non-stop tweets about NASA's Artemis getting ready to launch .... back to the moon --- disingenuous --- not "back to (on) the moon," but rather simply "back to (a loop around" around the moon. The US first did that back in December, 1968 -- almost 58 years ago.
But for the past week or so, I haven't been able to find a note about the Artemis launch. I've checked frequently. Zip. Nada. Zilch. So I got serious and checked again today.
Link here. Pushed back. Delayed. Scrubbed.
From February 3, 2026:
NASA is now targeting March, 2026, for the earliest possible launch of its historic Artemis II lunar moon mission, which will send four astronauts into deep space (to the moon) for the first time since the Apollo program ended more than five decades ago.
The decision came in the early hours of Tuesday, February 3, 2026, after NASA said it had completed a wet dress rehearsal, a crucial test of the towering rocket system that will launch the astronauts on an unprecedented path around the moon. The mission had been expected to lift off as soon as February 8, 2026.
NASA said it encountered several problems during the test after cold weather caused a late start, including running into issues with hydrogen leaks while filling up Artemis II’s Space Launch System rocket with propellant. The delay would allow teams to review data and conduct a second launch rehearsal, the agency said in a blog post.
AI -- Monday, February 9, 2026
Locator: 49941TECH.
AI: where we are today -- intersection of AI and investing. Link to Axios.
******************************
ChatBlog
BotBlog
Blogging + chatbots will end journalism as we know it.
The Washington Post was the first to fall; it simply lost relevance. In fact, I think it's turning into a culture and sports medium.
I think this might be my last year with The New Yorker. Will likely not renew. I don't know. That's a hard one.
But I digress.
Right now: the chatbot interface is boring. BORING.
This reminds me of the change from the smart phones before the iPhone and the iPhone introduced by Steve Jobs in 2007.
Someone is going to figure out how to make chatbot replies exciting. Steve Jobs, if so inclined, would have already solved the problem.
I don't particularly care for Joanna Stern but she's got it figured out. Whether she can put it all together is the big question.
If Jason Gay follows Joanna Stern and jumps ship -- that will be the tipping point.
Their problem: jumping through all the clutter.
Joanna Stern probably earns $200K at The WSJ.
Scott Adams: the best I can do is find a source that suggests he was worth north of $20 million when he died.
Could Joanna Stern / Jason Gay and maybe a "Chuck Klosterman" start their own on-line AI-assisted blog to be the next big thing? Tech - Sports - Culture (music)?
It's amazing -- it's amazing how often Lana Del Rey and Amy Winehouse absolutely fit my mood at any given moment while blogging.
Yeah, I would love to see Stern-JasonDay-Klosterman wrapped in McSweeney's.
The big question: how do we pay folks like Alison Ritter what they are really worth. To whom do you turn when you want to get a Bakken update? Alison Ritter.
Federal Employees -- Random Update -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49972FEDERALJOBS.
Question: has the government been performing worse or better this past year? I really don't know.
Pipeline Company Shipping Largest Amount Of LNG To Europe -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49956PERMIAN.
Locator: 49956LNG.
Clickbait: but lots of information regarding US LNG. Link here. It's the usual suspects; the big story here is the dominance of US energy --
- ChatGPT: says it is Cheniere (LNG); and,
- Gemini: says this --
So, which company is it?
Amazon: The $50-Billion Kingmaker -- AppEconomy -- February 10, 2026
Locator: 49951AMAZON.
If Palantir is the ring to rule them all, then Amazon is the kingmaker. Google will be the communicator -- the go-between -- between humans and technology -- search and agentic chat.
Link here to appeconomy.
This article is incredible.
The Washington Post Supports Trump's / EPA's Decision -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49959GLOBALWARMING.
The Washington Post laid off 14 of their 19 climate change / global warning reporters / staff -- why did The Washington Post have 19 climate change / global warning reporters / staff in the first place?
Climate change / global warming: The Washington Post supports Trump's / EPA's decision. My hunch: Obama's fanaticism was going to significantly impact the fourth industrial revolution -- satellites and terrestrial large data centers.
**************************
More
I'm Done -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49960.
I'm done.
The tipping point came on the day that a US Winter Olympian skier said he was embarrassed to be representing the United States at the Winter Olympics in Italy. He said that while in Italy. He's getting paid by the US Olympics Committee to represent the US. This payment started in 2026 with the Milan Winter Olympics.
I spent 30 years + a day in the USAF and loved every minute. But it was a calling.
Most of my acquaintances suffer from TDS.
I did what what I could to make this world a better place, especially for the grandchildren.
I'm done.
Influenza Update: Week 4, 2026 -- Posted February 11, 2026
Locator: 49964FLU.
Because of AI (chatbots), I have never felt so comfortable with my understanding of seasonal flu as I do now -- influenza A and B.
So, generally speaking there are two waves of influenza every season between October and May.
Today, a reply from Google Gemini said there were many reasons for those two waves, the lead reason being the "drift" of the antigenic strain over the season.
Google Gemini then said, as an example, the strain would drift from H3N1 to H1N2.
In fact, that is so wrong. First of all, H3N1 and H1N2 are not strains, but rather sub-types.
Influenza:
- A, B, C, D: the four types of influenza
- type D, only recently discovered, affects cattle, never affects humans (not yet, and probably never)
- type A: multiple sub-types, not strains; determined by surface antigens; HxNx; only two surface antigens: H and N;
- type B: has no subtypes, only two lineages, which further branch into specific strains; the two lineages: B/Yamagata and B/Victoria; B/Yamagata has not been seen since 2000 (interesting, the year of Covid-19)
- influenza B changes much more slowly and primarily affects humans
So, now, with that information we can follow "antigenic drift" for the rest of the 2025 - 2026 seasonal flu season.
First, week four of 2026:
- where are we?
- end of the first wave
- beginning of the second wave, just beginning; off to a slow start
- overall, all influenza (A and B) has decreased significantly since the start of the season, last autumn, 2025, but is now picking up slowly;
- since last week:
- percent of influenza A decreased week/week and influenza B increased slightly (again, as percentages but also as raw numbers);
- now this is the interesting part:
- earlier Google Gemini said the antigenic drift was due to subtype drift (H, N) so let's check that drift.
- subtyping (remember, the type is A or B) has remained relatively unchanged for Type A
- H1N1 (pdm09) [see below]:
- September 28, 2025 (week 40): 11.6%
- Week 4, 2026: 14.5%
- H3N2:
- September 28, 2025 (week 40): 88.4%
- Week 4, 2026: 85.7%
- H3N2v: 0% at week 40 (2025) and week (2026) [v = variant; usually swine]
- H5: 0% at week 40 (2025) and week (2026) [A(H5) = avian]. See link.
So, gradual drift to H1N1 from H3N2.
This year's trivalent flu vaccine:
- H1N1, H3N2, and B/Victoria.
I finally get it.
****************************
H1N1(pdm09)
H1N1 pandemic 2009
This virus caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century and has continued to circulate seasonally since 2009.
****************************
Covid-19
Covid-19:
after months of reading about influenza A and Covid-19, I am convinced
that Covid-19 was an anomaly, and clearly due to "unusual"
human-non-human interaction in the late summer of 2020 in China.
Whether
it was "an escape" from a lab or naturally occurring in a Chinese
market, or somehow a combination of the two, is still debated. To say
that researchers were not involved strains credibility, the fact that is
first broke out where China's main bio-threats lab is located and
researchers in China had so much of this sorted out so quickly.
My hunch: Chinese researchers (like American researchers) were aggressively monitoring avian/swine viruses in those Chinese markets, and either discovered a "new" virus or "developed" a new virus.
My hunch: like Spanish flu (1918), Covid-19 was simply a previously-unseen flu virus.
Interestingly, Spanish flu was caused by an H1N1 subtype. It evolved and circulated for decades.
Descendants of the 1918 virus continued to cause seasonal influenza, with the human H1N1 lineage circulating until around 1957 before reappearing in 1977.
The surface antigens of Covid-19 and influenza A are completely different and there is no antigenic cross reactivity.
- Influenza A: two membrane surface antigens, H and N.
- a segmented genome of eight separate negative-sense RNA strands
- Covid-19: surface covered with Spike (S) glycoproteins (crown or corona); binds to ACE2 receptor
- a single-stranded non-segmented positive-sense RNA; it encodes 11 - 12 functional proteiin-coding genes.
This is just one of many blogs on influenza this season.
Bidenomics And Inflation -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49963BIDENOMICS.
AI prompt: the US personal savings rate dropped to one of its lowest points in June, 2022. What was going on in the US economy then?
Bidenomics:
The real reason for inflation: it's still hard to believe that the smartest economists and the smartest CNBC analysts still can't figure out why we had such high inflation in 2022 and 2023. At the end of the day, prices (and, subsequently inflation) are determined by supply and demand. Too many dollars chasing too few of what people want --> higher inflation.
In 2022 - 2024: the perfect storm --> literally overnight,
- the Covid-19 lockdown ended and pent-up demand from US consumers, exploded;
- those US consumer had a gazillion dollars to spend (see above); and, again, literally overnight,
- the US had three million uninvited guests that needed three things:
- housing: that's why rents shot up;
- food: that's why grocery prices shot up;
- used cars: that's why the price of used cars shot up;
- combined with fact that there was a supply shortage of parts that auto manufacturers needed, couldn't get, and cars become a real shortage
- eggs? Oh, give me a break. Bird flu decimated the flocks. This is not rocket science, but the media had to sell the news during the Biden administration, and then under Trump it became political. Quick: what's the price of eggs now and when did The New York Times last run a story on the price of eggs?
********************************
US Personal Savings Rate
I don't recall when I last post the US Savings Rate. But after this morning's job report and the recent booming MMF figures, I was curious.
Link here. If you look at the one-year or the three-year, the US savings rate might be concerning, but the five-year chart show nothing out of the ordinary.
Three-year:
Five-year:
Ford Reports -- 4Q25 -- Huge Miss But Guidance Reassures Investors -- February 10, 2-26
Locator: 49953FORD. 
Shares rise after hours, after earnings reported:
On an unadjusted basis, the company’s net loss of $8.2 billion last year was its largest since the Great Recession in 2008, according to FactSet. That included $15.5 billion in special charges during the fourth quarter largely related to a pre-announced pullback in its all-electric vehicle plans.Automakers commonly exclude “special items” or one-time charges from their adjusted financial results to provide investors with a clearer picture of their core, ongoing business operations.Ford reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $11.1 billion, or a loss of $2.77 per share, compared with net income of $1.8 billion, or 45 cents per share, in the same period in 2024. Adjusted for the one-time charges, the company reported earnings of 13 cents per share.
Chatbot Data Points -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49965CHATBOTS.
Google Gemini, first party models:
- 10 million tokens / minute; Beth;
- the app: 750 million active users / month
How Are NASA's Artemis And Apple's AI Alike? They Never Launch -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49972APPLE.
Tag: AAPL
For those with a 30-year horizon, this is awesome.
****************************************
Apple's AI
From February 11, 2026: how are NASA's Artemis and Apple's AI alike? Neither launch.
Locator: 49966ARTEMIS.
A couple of weeks ago my x feed was filled with non-stop tweets about NASA's Artemis getting ready to launch .... back to the moon --- disingenuous --- not "back to (on) the moon," but rather simply "back to (a loop around" around the moon. The US first did that back in December, 1968 -- almost 58 years ago.
But for the past week or so, I haven't been able to find a note about the Artemis launch. I've checked frequently. Zip. Nada. Zilch. So I got serious and checked again today.
Link here. Pushed back. Delayed. Scrubbed.
From February 3, 2026:
NASA is now targeting March, 2026, for the earliest possible launch of its historic Artemis II lunar moon mission, which will send four astronauts into deep space (to the moon) for the first time since the Apollo program ended more than five decades ago.
The decision came in the early hours of Tuesday, February 3, 2026, after NASA said it had completed a wet dress rehearsal, a crucial test of the towering rocket system that will launch the astronauts on an unprecedented path around the moon. The mission had been expected to lift off as soon as February 8, 2026.
NASA said it encountered several problems during the test after cold weather caused a late start, including running into issues with hydrogen leaks while filling up Artemis II’s Space Launch System rocket with propellant. The delay would allow teams to review data and conduct a second launch rehearsal, the agency said in a blog post.
Book Page -- Spanish Flu -- Covid-19 -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49971COVID.
I really have no interest in discussing Covid-19 with anyone who has not read one or two books on the disease -- "my Covid library" at this post.
And now I've added another book to that library: Pale rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World, Laura Spinney, c. 2017.
Wow, talk about a great author -- she can really tell a story -- I would have enjoyed a bit more science but it was incredible -- how much stuff she covered. Her narrative, again, reminds me what Dr Fauci and his counterparts around the world were facing. Anyone disparaging Dr Fauci has no clue.
US Savings Rate -- Update -- November, 2025, Data -- Posted February 11, 2026
Locator: 49962SAVINGS.
I don't recall when I last post the US Savings Rate. But after this morning's job report and the recent booming MMF figures, I was curious.
Link here. If you look at the one-year or the three-year, the US savings rate might be concerning, but the five-year chart show nothing out of the ordinary.
Three-year:
Five-year:
********************************
Flashback
From May 6, 2025
Locator: 48599ARCHIVES.
Noteworthy: even among
war-time presidents, I can't think of any administration that has been
more "amazing" than the current administration. Executive orders and
judicial over-reach: SCOTUS has effectively put a stop to the
craziness.
US personal savings rates, link here:
Measles: number of measles in Texas now goes over 700 cases -- 702 cases
- 91 with history of hospitalization
- two fatalities in children; neither had known underlying conditions
SCOTUS: with ruling on trans / military today, the
US Supreme Court telegraphs how it plans to thread the needle. I don't
follow the US judicial system to know the backstory, but I assume SCOTUS
is taking a page from the playbook of bygone eras. Perhaps from the FDR
era?
NBA tonight -- it's going to be tough to "beat" last night's games. Tonight:
- Pacers vs Cavaliers, early game;
- Warriors vs Timberwolves, late game
- Steph Curry vs Minnesota
AMD delivered: nice report. Link here. Certainly doesn't feel like a recession.
data center revenue has grown at a 56% CAGR over the past four years; link here;
PLTR: down 11% -- as low as 13% down -- today after absolutely crushing earnings ...
Super Micro: lowers guidance.
CHORD out with results.
DEVON out with results.
- "stunning" drop of 5,000 bopd oil volumes quarter / quarter in their Delaware Basin as per today's earnings release;
BRK, 1Q25, link here. Has anyone really looked at this graphic?
Lucid: shares rise; "earnings were good enough."
Senator John Fetterman, trending. And not in a good way.
India and Pakistan: war breaking out? This never would have happened under a Biden presidency.
Canada
/ US: to see Indian-Pakistani conflict across the continent; many
westerners will be shocked; the cost of mass immigration with zero
assimilation.
China is in deep financial trouble and Trump knows it.So do "thinking" Democrats.
RFK, Jr.: I may be whistling past the graveyard, but my hunch is RFK, Jr, will cause no long-lasting damage to health care in the United States. I can imagine some good coming from his craziness. But again, I may be whistling past the graveyard.
Zuckerberg: Latest Californian Billionaire To Move To Florida To Avoid The Wealth Tax -- February 11, 2026
Locator: 49968CALIFORNIA.
Locator: 49968TAXES.
Really? How much time do these billionaires spend at their primary homes anyway? And how many homes do they have? Six months / year needed to establish residency.
Cramer's First Ten Minutes -- February 12, 2026
Locator: 49970CRAMER.
Miscellaneous
Jobs: prime-age labor force participation rate rose to 84% in January -- highest since March 2001 -- no typo -- since 2001 -- that's 24 years ago. A lot of those folks can now afford iPhones and MacBook Air laptops.
I wonder if the chart aabove will help Steve Liesman sort out the data. From yesterday:
Jobs reports was a stunner -- in a good way! Blockbuster! Huge revision on the upside. 130K vs 55K. Way better than expected.
Unemployment rate drops from 4.4% to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings actually drops a bit. No wage inflation. Steve Liesman is confused. Probably greatly upset. Steve Liesman says "take the numbers with a grain of salt." Global GDP will take off; led by the US. CNBC is having trouble saying these are good numbers. Steve Liesman says we need to wait for another sample. It gets tedious. LOL. NYTimes jobs report here. Incredible amount of good news, surprising news.
*****************************
Cramer's First Ten Minutes
Comments later.
Cramer is off today and wow, what a boring show when he's not on. Mike Santoli is really, really good but doesn't add much with the other two -- three clones. Cramer really plays off the other two nicely. So, done with that show at 8:21 and off the net and the business shows until late this afternoon. Good luck to everyone.
AAPL dividend paid today.
Crawler today:
- all major indices green
- AMD: up $2
- MU: up $14
- CMI: up $10
- CSCO: down $6
- QCOM: up $1
- ORCL: up $1
- INTC: flat to slightly negative
- CAT: down $1
- TSM: up $6
Last week at monthly Schwab luncheon: discussing bonds and difference between 3.4% and 3.3%. And that topic is held in rotation every four months. And how bonds should be a part of one's portfolio.